Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

Read | Govt aims to raise MSMEs' share in GDP to 40%: Nitin Gadkari

In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
December 5,2025

Mangaluru: In a significant step to curb online hate and intimidation, Mangaluru City Police have registered a suo motu case against multiple Instagram accounts accused of circulating alleged provocative and threatening content.

While monitoring social media activity on Tuesday, Kankanady Town PSI Anitha Nikkam identified the Instagram handle ‘team_targetttt_900’ for posting a hate message alongside images of lethal weapons. Another account, ‘team_nagara_900’, allegedly shared a threatening post targeting activist Bharath Kumdelu, tagging additional pages such as KARAVALI-OFFICIAL.

Several other accounts — including ‘immu_bhai.fan’, ‘target_boy_900’, ‘kings_of_manglore’, ‘team_target_boys.900’, ‘arshad_mangalore’, ‘target_ka19_ullal’, ‘team_target__’, ‘troll_tigersz_900’, ‘tr_group_900’, and ‘team_target_900’ — are also under scrutiny for spreading similar inflammatory material, police said.

Authorities have urged citizens, especially young social media users, to report suspicious pages and avoid engaging with groups that glorify violence or threaten individuals. Online hate can quickly escalate into real-world harm, and police stress that sharing or promoting such content can attract legal consequences.

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News Network
December 6,2025

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With IndiGo flight disruptions impacting thousands of passengers, the airline on Saturday said that it will offer full waiver on all cancellations/reschedule requests for travel bookings between December 5, 2025 and December 15, 2025.

Earlier in the day, the civil aviation ministry had directed the airline to complete the ticket refund process for the cancelled flights by Sunday evening, as well as ensure baggage separated from the travellers are delivered in the next two days.

In a post on X, titled 'No questions asked', IndiGo wrote, "In response to recent events, all refunds for your cancellations will be processed automatically to your original mode of payment."

"We are deeply sorry for the hardships caused," it further added.

Several passengers, however, complained of not getting full refund as promised by the airline.

Netizens have shared screenchots of getting charged for airline cancellation fee and convenience fee.

"Please tell me why u have did this airline cancellation charges when u say full amount will be refunded (sic)," a user wrote sharing a screenshot of the refund page.

"Well, but you have still debited the convenience charges," wrote another.

Passengers have also raised concerns about the "cancel" option being disabled on the IndiGo app. "First enable the 'Cancel' button on your App & offer full refund on tickets cancelled by customers between the said dates," wrote a user.

A day after the country's largest airline, IndiGo, cancelled more than 1,000 flights and caused disruptions for the fifth day on Saturday, the ministry said that any delay or non-compliance in refund processing will invite immediate regulatory action.

The refund process for all cancelled or disrupted flights must be completed by 8 pm on Sunday, the ministry said in a statement.

"Airlines have also been instructed not to levy any rescheduling charges for passengers whose travel plans were affected by cancellations," it said.

On Saturday, more than 400 flights were cancelled at various airports.

IndiGo has also been instructed to set up dedicated passenger support and refund facilitation cells.

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News Network
December 7,2025

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Since 1946, the United States has attempted 93 coups or “regime change” operations across the world — including two in Iran, US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack has admitted.

Speaking to the UAE-based IMI Media Group, in remarks published by The National, Barrack said Washington tried twice to overthrow the Iranian government but failed both times. 

“For (Trump) then to be imputed with regime change — we had two regime changes in Iran already. Neither one worked. So I think wisely leave it to the region to solve,” said Barrack, who also serves as the US ambassador to Turkey.

His comments come six months after the US joined Israel in airstrikes against Iran during ongoing indirect nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

On June 13, Israel launched an attack on Iran that killed at least 1,064 people and hit civilian infrastructure. Days later, the United States targeted three nuclear facilities — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — in what Iran called a clear violation of international law. Iranian retaliation eventually forced a halt to the assault on June 24.

Barrack further claimed that US President Donald Trump and Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio are “not into regime change” and prefer a regional approach driven by Middle Eastern countries themselves. According to him, regional dialogue and non-interference by outside powers offer a more durable path forward.

He added that Washington is still open to an agreement with Tehran if Iranian authorities show “seriousness” and willingness to engage constructively.

However, Iran maintains the US has not shown readiness for meaningful talks. In an interview with Japan’s Kyodo News, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations could advance only if Washington acknowledges Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and lifts unilateral sanctions.

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