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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Mangaluru, Apr 10: Hundreds of thousands of Muslims in the coastal city of Mangaluru and other parts of coastal Karnataka today observed Eid-ul-Fitr, marking the end of 29-day-long blessed month of Ramadan. 

The occasion falls on the first day of the 10th lunar calendar month of Shawwal, the start of which varies based on the sighting of the new moon.

Braving the scorching sun, Muslim men and children - and in some parts women too - thronged Eidgahs and mosques to express gratitude to their Creator by offering Eid prayers after distributing Zakat and Fitr among the poor and needy.

While praying for the acceptance of their month-long fasting and charity among other deeds, the imams also prayed for the acceptance of sacrifices of people of Gaza wherein Israel regime’s bloody war claimed thousands of lives including children and women in past six months.

Twaqa Ahmed Musliyar, the Qadhi of Mangaluru, led the Eid prayers and delivered the sermon at the historic Eidgah mosque at Lighthouse Hill. “We have fasted for a month to comply with the command of the Almighty. Let us also lead a pious life in the remaining 11 months of the year,” he said.

He exchanged Eid greetings with the devotees and called upon them to remember the lesser privileged people and needy during the festivities. “We have a social responsibility towards the poor and needy. As long as we attend to their problems, God's blessings will continue to shower upon us,” he said.

Karnataka Legislative Assembly Speaker U T Khader and several people’s representatives offered prayers at Eidgah mosque. Volunteers from Zeeanth Bhaksh masjid helped the police in maintaining traffic and discipline.

Children dressed in festival attire added colour to the celebrations. People wished Eid Mubarak and hugged each other.

The Eid prayers were held in all prominent mosques across the city. Taqwa Masjid in Pumpwell, Masjidunnoor in Hampankatta, Ihasan Masjid near Unity Hospital, Bolar Islamic Centre in Bolar, Ibrahim Khaleel Masjid near State Bank, Jamia Masjid in Kudroli and Kachi Memon Masjid in Bunder were overcrowded with devotees. Several thousand devotees offered prayers at Central Juma Masjid in Ullal on the outskirts of the city.

Mangaluru/ Bengaluru, Apr 2: Karnataka’s coastal belt some of the neighbouring areas will celebrate Eid-ul-Fitr on April 10, while rest of the state will witness the festival on April 11 due confusion over moon sighting. 

Muslim religious heads in twin coastal districts of Dakshina Kannada and Udupi on the night of April 9 declared the end of Ramadan and beginning of Shawwal following reports of sighting of crescent moon. 

With this Eid will be celebrated on April 10 in the above region. Similarly, Muslims in Bhatkal and neighbouring state of Kerala too will celebrate the festival on April 10. 

However, Muslims in other parts of Karnataka will continue to fast on April 10 and celebrate the Eid on the following day due to non-sighting of moon in their region. 

The Karnataka Moon Sighting Committee chairman Moulana Maqsood Imran formally announced that the Eid-ul-Fitr in Bengaluru and areas of Karnataka will be celebrated on Thursday April 11.