Economy in crisis: India’s growth may slow down further to 5.7% in Q1, says report

Agencies
August 21, 2019

Mumbai, Aug 21: India's economic growth is likely to slow down further to 5.7 per cent in the April-June quarter of this year due to low consumption, weak investments and an under-performing service sector, said a Nomura report. The economy, however, is expected to see some recovery in the July-September quarter, the report added.

It attributed the slowdown to the ongoing crisis in shadow banks, which were funding the consumption drive before liquidity crisis hit them hard last September, as well as weakening global growth and the resultant demand slump.

"The Indian economy is likely to slow down further to 5.7 per cent in April-June from a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in January-March," Nomura analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in their client note

"High-frequency indicators continue to show familiar pain points -- a deep contraction in consumption, weak investment, a slowing external sector and an under-performing services sector," they said.

"The growth momentum is likely to pick up in the September quarter to 6.4 per cent and go further to 6.7 per cent in the three months after that," said Nomura citing data from its proprietary tools. "We will watch coming data prints to see whether they confirm or negate the sustainability of the turnaround in the growth cycle," it added.

But the brokerage firm also said the industry and investment indicators are relatively stable. "We believe the GDP is yet to bottom out, and expect it to moderate to 5.7 per cent in the June quarter, down from 5.8 per cent in the March quarter," the note said.

The report added that some indicators were showing early signs of bottoming out. The July data shows improvement in 53 per cent of the indicators as compared to 31 per cent in June, the report noted.

Nomura's Composite Leading Index (CLI) for Q3 (July-September) has ticked marginally higher to 99.9 from 99.8 in Q2, led by higher industrial production growth, an improvement in visitor arrivals growth, equity markets and lower policy rates.

"While the concurrent state of the economy remains a concern, nascent signs of green shoots and positive performance of leading indicators provide some signs that a recovery may be slowly materialising," said the Nomura report.

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News Network
March 27,2024

Bengaluru: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) on Wednesday launched simultaneous raids in multiple places, including Bengaluru and Shivamogga.

Reports suggested that the ongoing raids are in connection with the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast in Bengaluru’s Rameshwaram Cafe on March 1. The blast had injured at least ten people as per the police report.

The Central Crime Branch (CCB) had launched an investigation alongside the NIA, and the trail of the suspect led them to Tumakuru first and subsequently to Ballari. Investigators believe that the bomb was planted by Mussavir Hussain Shazib, a handler of the Islamic State’s Shivamogga module who was aided by another IS handler called Ahmed Taahaa.

Sources in the know said that Shazib and Taahaa had stayed in Chennai for about a month between January and February using fake credentials. The names of the suspects were identified after they traced the cap worn by Shazib to a shop in a mall in Chennai. The cap, which was abandoned by the bomber in Bengaluru after the blast, was reportedly bought by Taahaa, around January-end.

As per the NIA, Shazib hails from Masjid Road in Thirthahalli, Shivamogga district, and Taahaa from Fish Market Road, Soppu Gude, Thirthahalli Rural. Both "wanted" suspects have been termed "absconders" by the NIA.

The NIA has questioned seven jailed terror suspects so far in connection with the blast. The investigation agency had also obtained seven-day custody of a jailed terror suspect named Maaz Muneer Ahmed.

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News Network
March 18,2024

election.jpg

New Delhi, Mar 18: The Election Commission on Monday afternoon issued orders for the removal of six Home Secretaries - including the top bureaucrats from Gujarat, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.

The poll panel also directed the transfer of West Bengal's Director-General of Police, the top cop of a state that has seen several instances of poll-related violence in recent years. The poll panel further said a shortlist of three potential replacements had to be prepared and submitted by 5 pm.

The re-shuffle, not an uncommon move by the Election Commission before major polls, also includes the transfer of the Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand Home Secretaries, as well as senior officials attached to the offices of the Mizoram and Himachal Pradesh Chief Ministers.

In addition, Iqbal Singh Chahal, who is Commissioner of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, and other officials in municipalities across Maharashtra, have been removed too.

All of this comes less than a month before the 2024 Lok Sabha poll; the ECI on Saturday said voting will begin on April 19 and run over seven phases till June 1.

This is, in fact, the first bureaucratic re-jig by the ECI since it announced polling dates.

The ECI's move comes after a meeting of Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar and his two associates, the newly-appointed Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu. This step comes as part of the poll panel's commitment to ensure a level playing field for all political parties in the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, as well as by-polls for 26 seats in 13 states.

Sources said the personnel removed were found to be holding dual charge in the offices of the respective chief ministers of each state, and this could compromise, or be seen to be compromising, required neutrality, particularly in relation to law-and-order before, during and after polling.

Bengal's ruling Trinamool has not yet reacted to the removal of DGP Rajiv Malik, who is seen by some to be close to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's party. In the past, the state government has questioned the last-minute re-shuffle of senior civil service and police officials so close to an election, arguing it actually hampers prep work since the new faces need time to adjust to the post.

Bengal has frequently witnessed violence during polling season; in June last year over a dozen people were killed across the state as voting for a panchayat election was underway.

The Trinamool accused the opposition of instigating violence and criticised central forces for their failure to protect voters, while the Congress claimed the state had let thugs loose on the people.

While announcing the dates on Saturday, the Chief Election Commissioner said the poll panel would take a very dim view of any violence during the election. Mr Kumar said the ECI is prepared to come down hard on any such incident. "We're putting political parties on notice," he declared.

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News Network
March 28,2024

New Delhi: After India summoned an American diplomat over their remarks on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in the liquor policy case, the US reiterated on Wednesday its call for "fair, transparent, timely legal processes".

We continue to follow these actions closely, including the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, said US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller while responding to questions on India summoning Gloria Berbena, the US Acting Deputy Chief of Mission in New Delhi.

The meeting at the foreign ministry's South Block office lasted nearly 40 minutes yesterday with India objecting strongly to the US remarks on the arrest of Mr Kejriwal.

Miller also responded to a question on the Congress party's frozen bank accounts, saying, "We are also aware of the Congress party's allegations that tax authorities have frozen some of their bank accounts in a manner that will make it challenging to effectively campaign in the upcoming elections."

He said the US encourages "fair, transparent and timely legal processes" for each of these issues.

"With respect to your first question, I'm not going to talk about any private diplomatic conversations, but of course, what we have said publicly is what I just said from here, that we encourage fair, transparent, timely legal processes. We don't think anyone should object to that," he said.

Mr Kejriwal was arrested last week by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), the third Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader after Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh to be taken into custody in connection with the alleged liquor policy scam.

The US State Department on Tuesday said it is monitoring reports of Mr Kejriwal's arrest and called on New Delhi to ensure "a fair and timely legal process" for the jailed Chief Minister.

India objected to it and warned of "unhealthy precedents".

"States are expected to be respectful of the sovereignty and internal affairs of others, and this responsibility is even more so in case of fellow democracies. It could otherwise end up setting unhealthy precedents," the foreign ministry said.

"India's legal processes are based on an independent judiciary which is committed to objective and timely outcomes. Casting aspersions on that is unwarranted," the ministry stressed.

The US remarks came days after Germany's Foreign Office stressed that Mr Kejriwal is entitled to a fair and impartial trial. The Indian government had reacted strongly and summoned the German envoy, labelling their remark "blatant interference in internal matters".

The excise policy was introduced to bring an overhaul to the liquor business in Delhi, but was scrapped after Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena ordered a probe into the alleged irregularities in the policy. The ED believes the bribe money from the policy was allegedly used for funding the AAP's election campaigns. It has also called Mr Kejriwal a "conspirator" in the case.

His arrest just ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election has also prompted furious protests from the opposition camp.

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