Growth slowdown, over-optimistic bankers responsible for bad loans: Raghuram Rajan

Agencies
September 11, 2018

New Delhi, Sept 11: Over-optimistic bankers, slowdown in government decision making process and moderation in economic growth mainly contributed to the mounting bad loans, said former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan in a note to Parliamentary panel.

In a note to Chairman of Estimates Committee Murli Manohar Joshi, he said: "A variety of governance problems such as the suspect allocation of coal mines coupled with the fear of investigation slowed down government decision making in Delhi, both in the UPA and the subsequent NDA governments".

Project cost overruns escalated for stalled projects and they became increasingly unable to service debt, he said, adding the continuing travails of the stranded power plants, even though India is short of power, suggests government decision making has not picked up sufficient pace to date.

He further said a larger number of bad loans were originated in the period 2006-2008 when economic growth was strong, and previous infrastructure projects such as power plants had been completed on time and within budget.

"It is at such times that banks make mistakes. They extrapolate past growth and performance to the future. So, they are willing to accept higher leverage in projects, and less promoter equity. Indeed, sometimes banks signed up to lend based on project reports by the promoter's investment bank, without doing their own due diligence," he said.

Citing an example, he said "one promoter told me about how he was pursued then by banks waving chequebooks, asking him to name the amount he wanted".

This is the historic phenomenon of irrational exuberance, common across countries at such a phase in the cycle, he said.

Unfortunately, he said, that growth does not always take place as expected and the years of strong global growth before the global financial crisis were followed by a slowdown, which extended even to India, showing how much more integrated the country had become with the world.

Strong demand projections for various projects were shown to be increasingly unrealistic as domestic demand slowed down, he said.

He also pointed to loss of promoter and banker interest for rise in NPAs.

Over malfeasance and corruption in the NPA problem, he said, "Undoubtedly, there was some, but it is hard to tell banker exuberance, incompetence, and corruption apart".

"Clearly, bankers were overconfident and probably did too little due diligence for some of these loans. Many did no independent analysis, and placed excessive reliance on SBI Caps and IDBI to do the necessary due diligence. Such outsourcing of analysis is a weakness in the system, and multiplies the possibilities for undue influence," the note said.

On steps required to prevent recurrence rising non-performing assets (NPAs), Rajan suggested that there is need for improving governance of public sector banks and process of project evaluation and monitoring to lower the risk of project NPAs.

Besides, he also made a case for strengthening the recovery process and distance public sector banks from the government.

The Parliament's Committee on Estimates had invited Rajan to brief it on the matter after former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanianpraised him for identifying the NPA crisis and trying to resolve it.

Rajan, who was RBI governor for three years till September 2016, is currently the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth School of Business.

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News Network
March 28,2024

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Mangaluru, Mar 28: A fish meal factory in the Baikampady Industrial area in Mangaluru was gutted in a fire incident on Thursday, officials said.

The factory is owned by the company 'Shihar Enterprises', they said.

According to the locals, the fire was first noticed at 4.45 am today, which was immediately reported to the fire department.

The fire engines reached the spot and tried to douse the fire, but it had already spread to other parts of the factory. After almost four hours of fire-fighting operation, the blaze was completely doused, officials.

The reason for the blaze is still being probed, the fire department officials said, adding that they suspect an electric short circuit could have triggered it.

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News Network
March 22,2024

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The start of the world’s most lucrative cricket tournament in India is presenting investors with another big opportunity to cash in on the sport, months after the world’s most populous nation hosted the Cricket World Cup.

The eight-week long Indian Premier League begins March 22 for its 17th season. Since its inception, the fast-paced cricket tournament has become a corporate juggernaut to rival the National Football League in the US and the English Premier League in value.

Just as October’s Cricket World Cup boosted consumption in India for months, fans are expected to flock to restaurants, pubs and food delivery platforms over the duration of the tournament. This year’s IPL also coincides with general elections that will last for six weeks starting April 19, a period when companies are expecting higher food and drink sales as people flock to rallies and other events.

“There’s going to be a lot of spending,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. “IPL, as well as the election, gives a three-month corridor with enhanced economic activity.”

Stocks in India such as McDonald’s franchise operator Westlife Foodworld Ltd. and peer Sapphire Foods India Ltd. gained ahead of the first match on Friday, as well as hotels and beverage makers. Packaged-food companies could also stand to benefit from the IPL craze, said Sachil Bobade, an analyst at investment firm Dolat Capital Market.

The IPL ecosystem was valued at $11 billion (Rs 91,721 crores) in 2023, including the value of media rights and sponsorships, according to Indian valuation consulting firm D&P Advisory.

The league is also attracting record sums of money from sponsors and broadcasters. Conglomerate Tata Group won the title sponsorship rights of the tournament in January for a record 25 billion rupees ($300 million). Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s media venture secured the digital streaming rights in 2022 for five years for $2.7 billion, while Walt Disney Co. paid roughly the same for TV rights.

“There was a serious amount of bidding even this year,” said Vinit Karnik, head of entertainment, esports and sports at media agency GroupM South Asia. “I see growth in IPL in double digits year-on-year,” he adds.

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News Network
March 18,2024

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New Delhi, Mar 18: The Election Commission on Monday afternoon issued orders for the removal of six Home Secretaries - including the top bureaucrats from Gujarat, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.

The poll panel also directed the transfer of West Bengal's Director-General of Police, the top cop of a state that has seen several instances of poll-related violence in recent years. The poll panel further said a shortlist of three potential replacements had to be prepared and submitted by 5 pm.

The re-shuffle, not an uncommon move by the Election Commission before major polls, also includes the transfer of the Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand Home Secretaries, as well as senior officials attached to the offices of the Mizoram and Himachal Pradesh Chief Ministers.

In addition, Iqbal Singh Chahal, who is Commissioner of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, and other officials in municipalities across Maharashtra, have been removed too.

All of this comes less than a month before the 2024 Lok Sabha poll; the ECI on Saturday said voting will begin on April 19 and run over seven phases till June 1.

This is, in fact, the first bureaucratic re-jig by the ECI since it announced polling dates.

The ECI's move comes after a meeting of Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar and his two associates, the newly-appointed Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu. This step comes as part of the poll panel's commitment to ensure a level playing field for all political parties in the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, as well as by-polls for 26 seats in 13 states.

Sources said the personnel removed were found to be holding dual charge in the offices of the respective chief ministers of each state, and this could compromise, or be seen to be compromising, required neutrality, particularly in relation to law-and-order before, during and after polling.

Bengal's ruling Trinamool has not yet reacted to the removal of DGP Rajiv Malik, who is seen by some to be close to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's party. In the past, the state government has questioned the last-minute re-shuffle of senior civil service and police officials so close to an election, arguing it actually hampers prep work since the new faces need time to adjust to the post.

Bengal has frequently witnessed violence during polling season; in June last year over a dozen people were killed across the state as voting for a panchayat election was underway.

The Trinamool accused the opposition of instigating violence and criticised central forces for their failure to protect voters, while the Congress claimed the state had let thugs loose on the people.

While announcing the dates on Saturday, the Chief Election Commissioner said the poll panel would take a very dim view of any violence during the election. Mr Kumar said the ECI is prepared to come down hard on any such incident. "We're putting political parties on notice," he declared.

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