India's retail inflation hits 8-month high of 3.18% on back of higher food prices

Agencies
July 13, 2019

New Delhi, Jul 13: India's macro-economic data presented a slightly grim picture as food prices pushed India's retail inflation higher in June, and lower manufacturing output slowed down the country's industrial production in May.

The two key economic macro-data points -- Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for May and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June -- were released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday.

As per the data furnished by the National Statistical Office (NSO), higher food prices accelerated India's June retail inflation to 3.18 per cent from 3.05 per cent in May.

However, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the CPI in June 2019 was lower than the corresponding period of last year when retail inflation stood at 4.92 per cent.

The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) inflated to 2.17 per cent during the month under review from an expansion of 1.83 per cent in May 2019.

Product-wise, the prices of milk-based items, egg, meat and fish increased in March YoY. In contrast, a deflation trend was witnessed in the cost of vegetables and pulses. 

Prices of milk-based products rose marginally by 0.68 per cent, while egg became dearer by 1.62 per cent and meat and fish prices recorded a rise of 9.01 per cent.

On a sub-category basis, vegetable prices increased on a YoY basis in June to 4.66 per cent. The category of "pulses and products" became expensive 5. 68 per cent and that of "sugar and confectionery" (-)0.09 per cent.

In terms of IIP, the country's factory output growth eased in May 2019 as it rose by 3.1 per cent from a revised growth of 4.32 per cent reported for April 2019. 

Even on a YoY basis, May's industrial production growth of 3.1 per cent was lower than the 3.8 per cent achieved during the corresponding month of the previous fiscal. 

"The cumulative growth for the April-May 2019 period over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 3.7 per cent," the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in 'Quick Estimates of IIP.

Besides, the output rate of the manufacturing sector rose 2.5 per cent in May from a year-on-year (YoY) rise of 3.6 per cent. On a YoY level, mining production grew 3.2 per cent from a rise of 5.8 per cent and the sub-index of electricity generation was higher by 7.4 per cent from 4.2 per cent.

Among the six use-based classification groups, the output of primary goods, with the highest weightage of 34.04, grew by 2.5 per cent. The output of intermediate goods, which has the second highest weightage, inched up by 0.6 per cent. 

Similarly, output of consumer non-durables rose 7.7 per cent, however, consumer durables slipped (-)0.1 per cent. 

In addition, output of infrastructure or construction goods increased by 5 .5 per cent, but that of capital goods inched-up by 0.8 per cent. In terms of industries, 12 out of the 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have showed positive growth during the month under review as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

"The industry group 'Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork, ex cept furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials' has shown the highest positive growth of 24.8 per cent followed by 15.9 per cen t in 'Manufacture of food products' and 9.4 per cent in 'Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products." 

"On the other hand, the industry group 'Manufacture of paper and paper pro ducts' has shown the highest negative growth of (-) 12.2 per cent followed b y (-) 9.9 per cent in 'Manufacture of furniture' and (-) 8.7 per cent in 'manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment'." 

On IIP, Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, ICRA said: "The sequential dip in industrial growth in May 2019 reflects the trend in core sector expansion, which offset the shallower drag from the contraction in auto production, as well as an improvement in growth of non oil merchandise exports." 

According to Madhavi Arora, Economist, Edelweiss Securities said: "The CPI inflation ticks up to 3.18 per cent but remains overall benign... The uptick in June was largely led by sequential uptick in food components, while sequential increase in core components moderated." 

"The food inflation seasonal uptrend will likely continue in the near term , albeit stay benign overall, partly reflecting structural change in food in flation dynamics." 

Devendra Pant, Chief Economist, India Ratings and Research, said: "CPI inflation is likely to follow its gradual increasing trend in the first half of this fiscal and likely to touch 4 per cent mark in third quarter (mainly due to base effect). 

"The August 2019 Monetary Policy growth inflation dynamics of Indian economy are evenly balanced," he said.

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News Network
March 28,2024

New Delhi: After India summoned an American diplomat over their remarks on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in the liquor policy case, the US reiterated on Wednesday its call for "fair, transparent, timely legal processes".

We continue to follow these actions closely, including the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, said US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller while responding to questions on India summoning Gloria Berbena, the US Acting Deputy Chief of Mission in New Delhi.

The meeting at the foreign ministry's South Block office lasted nearly 40 minutes yesterday with India objecting strongly to the US remarks on the arrest of Mr Kejriwal.

Miller also responded to a question on the Congress party's frozen bank accounts, saying, "We are also aware of the Congress party's allegations that tax authorities have frozen some of their bank accounts in a manner that will make it challenging to effectively campaign in the upcoming elections."

He said the US encourages "fair, transparent and timely legal processes" for each of these issues.

"With respect to your first question, I'm not going to talk about any private diplomatic conversations, but of course, what we have said publicly is what I just said from here, that we encourage fair, transparent, timely legal processes. We don't think anyone should object to that," he said.

Mr Kejriwal was arrested last week by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), the third Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader after Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh to be taken into custody in connection with the alleged liquor policy scam.

The US State Department on Tuesday said it is monitoring reports of Mr Kejriwal's arrest and called on New Delhi to ensure "a fair and timely legal process" for the jailed Chief Minister.

India objected to it and warned of "unhealthy precedents".

"States are expected to be respectful of the sovereignty and internal affairs of others, and this responsibility is even more so in case of fellow democracies. It could otherwise end up setting unhealthy precedents," the foreign ministry said.

"India's legal processes are based on an independent judiciary which is committed to objective and timely outcomes. Casting aspersions on that is unwarranted," the ministry stressed.

The US remarks came days after Germany's Foreign Office stressed that Mr Kejriwal is entitled to a fair and impartial trial. The Indian government had reacted strongly and summoned the German envoy, labelling their remark "blatant interference in internal matters".

The excise policy was introduced to bring an overhaul to the liquor business in Delhi, but was scrapped after Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena ordered a probe into the alleged irregularities in the policy. The ED believes the bribe money from the policy was allegedly used for funding the AAP's election campaigns. It has also called Mr Kejriwal a "conspirator" in the case.

His arrest just ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election has also prompted furious protests from the opposition camp.

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News Network
March 22,2024

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New Delhi, Mar 22: The Aam Aadmi Party has made it clear that Arvind Kejriwal will remain the Delhi Chief Minister despite his arrest in the liquor policy case. While no law would stop the AAP leader from running the state from prison, the jail guidelines would make it extremely difficult.

Kejriwal was arrested yesterday by the Directorate of Enforcement (ED), following his avoidance of nine summons issued by the investigative agency in relation to the Delhi liquor policy case. 

The decision to apprehend Kejriwal transpired shortly after the High Court's denial of protection from arrest. With this development, Kejriwal becomes the second opposition Chief Minister to face arrest by the ED within a span of fewer than two months, following Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren's similar fate in January 2024 due to allegations in a graft case. Subsequently, Hemant Soren was replaced by his party colleague, Champai Soren.

Delhi government minister Atishi declared shortly after Kejriwal's arrest that he would not step down from his position. However, the legality and feasibility of a detained Chief Minister continuing to fulfill official duties warrant examination.

A former law officer of Delhi's Tihar Jail says that an inmate can only hold two meetings in a week, which would make it difficult for Mr Kejriwal to carry out his responsibilities as Chief Minister.

Can he run government from prison?

While theoretically plausible, governing from detention presents logistical challenges. However, there exists no explicit prohibition against a Chief Minister conducting official responsibilities while under arrest. Disqualification only occurs upon conviction.

The Representation of the People Act, 1951 outlines disqualification provisions for specific offenses, necessitating a conviction for those holding office.

Will centre impose president’s rule?

Constitution expert SK Sharma told TOI that there exists no specific legal provision mandating the automatic resignation of a state's Chief Minister upon arrest. He cited the example of former Bihar CM Lalu Prasad Yadav, who appointed his wife Rabri Devi as CM during his arrest. "Former Bihar CM Lalu Prasad Yadav made his wife Rabri Devi the CM of the state when he was arrested. More recently, Hemant Soren in Jharkhand also resigned. Calling cabinet meetings in the jail or review meetings with officials in his cell does not seem practical," said Sharma.

Sharma further indicated that if AAP persisted in retaining Kejriwal as CM, it could lead to a deadlock, potentially prompting the Centre to impose President's rule in Delhi.

What may happen next?

Despite AAP's unwavering stance on Kejriwal's continuation in office, internal sources say that potential successors, including Atishi and health minister Saurabh Bharadwaj. Atishi, known for her extensive portfolio and close ties to Kejriwal, alongside Bharadwaj, a prominent minister with significant responsibilities, emerged as likely contenders. Additionally, sources speculated about the surprise candidacy of Kejriwal's wife, Sunita, given her background as a revenue services officer and active involvement in party affairs.

However, finding a successor of comparable stature to Kejriwal, a national convener of the party and three-time Delhi CM, presents a formidable challenge for AAP.

Role of Delhi's Lieutenant Governor

Delhi's unique power structure, featuring an elected Chief Minister and a Lieutenant Governor appointed by the Centre, presents a complex scenario. Kejriwal's ability to continue as CM hinges on legal relief, failing which the Lieutenant Governor can seek Presidential intervention, potentially leading to the imposition of President's rule.

Recent cases demonstrate how denial of bail can compel resignation, highlighting the precarious position of arrested officials.

In light of these developments, the Lieutenant Governor could invoke 'failure of constitutional machinery' to justify President's rule, thereby bringing the national capital under direct Union government control until the end of the current Assembly's tenure in February 2025.

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News Network
March 21,2024

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New Delhi: India has now become more unequal in terms of wealth concentration than the British colonial period as income and wealth of the top 1% of the country’s population have hit historical highs, according to a paper released by World Inequality Lab.

By 2022-23, the top 1 per cent income share in India was 22.6 per cent and the top 1 per cent wealth share rose to 40.1 per cent, with India’s top 1 per cent income share among the very highest in the world, higher than even South Africa, Brazil and the US.

Co-authored by economists Nitin Kumar Bharti, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, and Anmol Somanchi, the paper stated that the “Billionaire Raj” headed by “India’s modern bourgeoisie” is now more unequal than the British Raj headed by the colonialist forces. 

The paper said there is evidence to suggest the Indian tax system might be “regressive when viewed from the lens of net wealth”. A restructuring of the tax code is needed, the paper said, adding that a levy of a “super tax” of 2 per cent on the net wealth of 167 wealthiest families would yield 0.5 per cent of national income in revenues and create space for investments.

“A restructuring of the tax code to account for both income and wealth, and broad-based public investments in health, education and nutrition are needed to enable the average Indian, and not just the elites, to meaningfully benefit from the ongoing wave of globalisation. Besides serving as a tool to fight inequality, a “super tax” of 2% on the net wealth of the 167 wealthiest families in 2022-23 would yield 0.5% of national income in revenues and create valuable fiscal space to facilitate such investments,” the paper said. 

The paper has analysed data based on the annual tax tabulations published by the Indian income tax authorities to extract the distribution of top income earners between 1922-2020.

The share of national income going to the top 10 per cent fell from 37 per cent in 1951 to 30 per cent by 1982 after which it began steadily rising. From the early 1990s onwards, the top 10 per cent share increased substantially over the next three decades, nearly touching 60 per cent in the most recent years, the paper said. This compares with the bottom 50 per cent getting only 15 per cent of India’s national income in 2022-23.

 The top 1 per cent earn on average Rs 5.3 million, 23 times the average Indian (Rs 0.23 million). Average incomes for the bottom 50 per cent and the middle 40 per cent stood at Rs 71,000 (0.3 times national average) and Rs 1,65,000 (0.7 times national average), respectively.
The richest, nearly 10,000 individuals (of 92 million Indian adults) earn on average Rs 480 million (2,069 times the average Indian). “To get a sense of just how skewed the distribution is, one would have to be at nearly the 90th percentile to earn the average income in India,” the paper said.

In 2022, just the top 0.1 per cent in India earned nearly 10 per cent of the national income, while the top 0.01 per cent earned 4.3 per cent share of the national income and top 0.001 per cent earned 2.1 per cent of the national income.

Enlisting the probable reasons for sharp rise in top 1 per cent income shares, the paper said public and private sector wage growth could have played a part till the late 1990s, adding that there are good reasons to believe capital incomes likely played a role in subsequent years. For the shares of the bottom 50 per cent and middle 40 per cent remaining depressed, the paper said, the primary reason has been the lack of quality broad-based education, focused on the masses and not just the elites.

“One reason to be concerned with such high levels of inequality is that extreme concentration of incomes and wealth is likely to facilitate disproportionate influence on society and government. This is even more so in contexts with weak democratic institutions. After largely being a role model among post-colonial nations in this regard, the integrity of various key institutions in India appears to have been compromised in recent years. This makes the possibility of India’s slide towards plutocracy even more real. If only for this reason, income and wealth inequality in India must be closely tracked and challenged,” it said.

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