PM’s Economic Advisory Council junks Arvind Subramanian paper, plans rebuttal

Agencies
June 13, 2019

New Delhi, Jun 13: A day after Arvind Subramanian's sensational disclosure that India's GDP has been overestimated by an astronomical 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17 which immediately attracted a strong reaction from the government, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council came to the Centre's defence, saying that proper methodology was followed and that experts were consulted in calculating the country's overall economic growth estimates.

The council also termed parts of former chief economic advisor's report "most unusual exercise" that attempted to "sensationalize" what should have been a proper academic debate.

In a statement put out on Wednesday afternoon, the council, headed by economist Bibek Debroy, said it would come out with a "point-to-point rebuttal" in due course, indicating the seriousness attached by the government to buttress assertions made in Subramanian's research paper.

"It is worth noting that the Base Year of India's income calculations shifted to 2011-12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in National Income Accounting. It was on the basis of these recommendations, started in 2008, that the Government implemented the change from January, 2015," a government statement reflecting council's views said.

"Therefore, it is wrong to suggest that the views of experts have not been taken into account while changing the Base Year or weights or switching from Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) to Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) 21," the statement added.

In his recent research paper published by Harvard University, the former CEA has said there is a possibility of substantial overestimation in the growth figures while stating that the actual GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 was around 4.5% as against 7%.

Subramanian has suggested that India's GDP growth estimate has been overestimated by around 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17, a period that covers the years during both the UPA and the NDA governments.

The adoption of a new GDP series to measure the country's economic growth, months after the government itself slashed previous UPA-era GDP growth rate for 2010-11 from the earlier estimated 10.3% to 8.5%, has fuelled controversy.

"In his paper, Dr. Subramanian has used cross-country regressions to estimate what India's GDP should be. Using cross-country regressions to estimate GDP is a most unusual exercise, as is the suggestion that any country's GDP that is off the regression line must be questioned. The proxy indicators that he used can also be questioned. Nor does this exercise allow for GDP increases on the basis of productivity gains," the council said in the statement.

It added that a country's GDP is in nominal terms and any exercise should be on the basis of nominal figures, not real growth rates.

"The Economic Advisory Council will examine in detail the estimates made in Dr. Arvind Subramanian's paper and come out with a point-to-point rebuttal in due course. At the moment, it is felt that any attempt to sensationalize what should be a proper academic debate is not desirable from the point of view of preserving the independence and quality of India's statistical systems, all of which the former CEA is familiar with," the council said.

It also said that some of the issues that Subramanian is raising now should have been raised while he was working as CEA, "though by his own admission, he has taken time to understand India's growth numbers and is still unsure."

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News Network
March 17,2024

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New Delhi: The Election Commission on Sunday made public fresh data on electoral bonds, which it had submitted in sealed covers to the Supreme Court and was later asked to put it in public domain.

These details are believed to be pertaining to the period before April 12, 2019. Electoral bond details after this date was made public by the poll panel last week.

The BJP encashed electoral bonds totalling Rs 6,986.5 crore; maximum Rs 2,555 crore received in 2019-20, as per the EC data.

The Trinamool Congress received Rs 1,397 crore through electoral bonds, second largest recipient after BJP, as per the EC data.

On the other hand, the Congress redeemed a total of Rs 1,334.35 crore through electoral bonds.

DMK received Rs 656.5 crore through electoral bonds, including Rs 509 crore from lottery king Santiago Martin's Future Gaming.

BJD encashed electoral bonds worth Rs 944.5 crore, YSR Congress Rs 442.8 crore, TDP Rs 181.35 crore.

Political parties had filed data on electoral bonds in sealed cover as directed by the Supreme Court's interim order dated April 12, 2019, the poll panel said in a statement.

"Data so received from political parties was deposited in the Supreme Court without opening sealed covers. In pursuance of the Supreme Court's order dated March 15, 2024, the Registry of the Supreme Court has returned physical copies along with a digitized record of the same in a pen drive in sealed cover. The Election Commission of India has today uploaded the data received in the digitized form from the registry of the Supreme Court on electoral bonds on its website," EC said.

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News Network
March 28,2024

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Mangaluru, Mar 28: A fish meal factory in the Baikampady Industrial area in Mangaluru was gutted in a fire incident on Thursday, officials said.

The factory is owned by the company 'Shihar Enterprises', they said.

According to the locals, the fire was first noticed at 4.45 am today, which was immediately reported to the fire department.

The fire engines reached the spot and tried to douse the fire, but it had already spread to other parts of the factory. After almost four hours of fire-fighting operation, the blaze was completely doused, officials.

The reason for the blaze is still being probed, the fire department officials said, adding that they suspect an electric short circuit could have triggered it.

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News Network
March 27,2024

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At least seven people have been killed when Israeli warplanes bombed an emergency center in southern Lebanon near the border with the 1948 Israeli-occupied territories with air-to-surface missiles, according to Lebanese security sources.

Two sources, speaking on condition of anonymity said early on Wednesday that the strike targeted the Islamic Group’s emergency and relief center in Lebanon’s southern village of Habbariyeh.

Jamaa Islamiya, a Lebanese group closely linked to the Gaza-based Palestinian resistance movement Hamas, said in a statement that “a number” of people had been killed, and called the strike a “heinous crime.”

An official from the group said “seven rescuers” were killed in the aerial assault.

Another Jamaa Islamiya official, also requesting anonymity, said a dozen medical staff were in the emergency center at the time of the strike, adding that bodies were being pulled from the rubble.

Lebanese lawmaker Hassan Mrad said “the Israeli aggression on Habbariyeh adds to the long list of Israeli crimes.”

Israel has been launching air strikes against Lebanon since the beginning of its onslaught against the Gaza Strip in early October.

An Israeli strike knocked down part of a building in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatiyeh on February 14, killing seven members of the same family, including a child, Lebanon’s official National News Agency said. A boy initially reported missing was found alive under the rubble.

In a separate Israeli attack, a woman and her two children were killed in the village of as-Sawana in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli regime launched its devastating hostilities in the Gaza Strip on October 7 after the territory’s Hamas-led Palestinian resistance groups carried out a surprise retaliatory attack, dubbed Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, against the occupying entity.

Israel's raids have resulted in retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah in support of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.

The movement has vowed to keep up its retaliatory operations as long as the Tel Aviv regime continues its onslaught on Gaza.

The Israeli campaign in Gaza has killed at least 32,414 people, most of them women and children. Another 74,787 individuals have also been wounded.

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