Why more vaccinated people are dying of covid in UK than unvaccinated?

News Network
July 16, 2021

London, July 16: More vaccinated people are dying of Covid than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive Covid test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with Covid vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with Covid will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.

The risk of dying from Covid doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of Covid than an unvaccinated 35-year-old.

This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalised with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalisation (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.

However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old.

Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from Covid than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

Think of it as ball-bearing rain

One way to imagine the risk is as a rain of differently sized ball bearings falling from the sky, where the ball bearings are the people that get infected with Covid. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume there are roughly equal numbers of ball bearings in each age group. In each age category, there is also a variation in the size of the balls. The balls representing the older groups are smaller, representing a higher risk of death.

Now imagine there’s a sieve that catches many of the balls. Most people who get Covid will not die (most balls get caught in the sieve). But some of the smaller balls fall through. The older you are, the more likely you are to fall through the holes. The balls that make it through the first sieve are hugely skewed towards older age ranges, represented by the smaller ball bearings. Before Covid vaccines came along, the people that fell through the holes represented the people who would die of Covid. The risk was massively skewed towards older people.

Vaccination provides a second sieve underneath the first, to prevent people from dying. This time, because we haven’t vaccinated everyone, it’s the holes in the sieve that are of different sizes. For older people who’ve had both doses, the holes are smaller, so many ball-bearings are stopped. The vaccines will save many of those who would previously have died.

For younger people the holes in the vaccine sieve are currently bigger as they are less likely to have received both doses and so more likely to fall through the sieve.

If all the filtering were just done by the second sieve (with no skew in risk of death by age, represented by the first sieve), then we might expect younger unvaccinated people to account for a larger proportion of the deaths. But it isn’t. The first sieve is so hugely biased towards older people that even with vaccination, more of them slip through the second sieve than the younger unvaccinated people.

Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older, more vulnerable people first), you would expect high proportions of the people who die from Covid to have been vaccinated. And that is exactly what we see in the data.

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Comments

Ramesh Mishra
 - 
Tuesday, 27 Jul 2021

COVID-19, VACCINE DOES NOT GIVE A GUARANTEED LIFE TO ANYONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD: People of all ages, races, religions and colours follow the health guidelines issued by the authorities. I have studied, worked and travelled the world for over 50, years, I frequently travel around the world and I have noticed that since the declaration of the pandemic, most of the world was in denial and look at Covid-19, as a joke. The people around the world, and economy is unpredictable due to economic catastrophe and massive death caused by the Covid-19. The law-abiding, disciplined and principled countries would recover fast and the lawless countries would be doomed. The fear of Covid-19 now is in the minds of people around the world and people are afraid to breathe the fresh air. It is our faith that would keep us happy, healthy and alive. Covid-19 is curable and the death incurable.
Ramesh Mishra
Victoria, BC, CANADA

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News Network
July 23,2021

Olymp.jpg

The opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics began on Friday in a nearly empty stadium after a year-long pandemic postponement and a build-up marred by scandal and controversy.

A video showing athletes training at home during the coronavirus pandemic started the show, with pink fireworks bursting into the air after a countdown.

The ceremony in the 68,000-capacity stadium is taking place before just a few hundred officials and dignitaries, including Japan's Emperor Naruhito, French President Emmanuel Macron and US First Lady Jill Biden.

The emperor will officially declare the Games open.

The Olympics have faced opposition in Japan over fears the global gathering of 11,000 athletes could trigger a super-spreader event.

Organisers have put strict virus measures in place, banning overseas fans for the first time ever, and keeping domestic spectators out of all but a handful of venues.

Athletes, support staff and media are subject to strict Covid-19 protocols, including regular testing and daily health checks.

Polls have consistently found a majority of Japanese are against the Games, with opinion ranging from weary indifference to outright hostility.

But there was plenty of enthusiasm outside the Olympic Stadium in the hours before the ceremony, as hundreds of people gathered hoping to soak up the atmosphere and watch the fireworks expected during the extravaganza.

Mako Fukuhara arrived six hours before the ceremony to grab a spot.

"Until now it didn't feel like the Olympics, but now we are by the stadium, it feels like the Olympics," she told AFP as people snapped selfies nearby.

'Determined'

Traditionally a highlight of any Summer Games, featuring the parade of nations and the lighting of the Olympic cauldron, Tokyo's opening ceremony has been drastically pared back.

Fewer than 1,000 dignitaries and officials are present at the stadium, and in a sign of how divisive the Games remain, several top sponsors including Toyota and Panasonic are not attending.

A few hundred protestors demonstrated against the Games outside the stadium as the ceremony began.

Tokyo is battling a surge in virus cases, and is under emergency measures that means restaurants must shut by 8:00 pm and cannot sell alcohol.

Dogged by controversy

But Olympic officials have put a brave face on the unusual circumstances, with IOC chief Thomas Bach insisting cancellation was never on the table.

"Over the past 15 months we had to take many decisions on very uncertain grounds," he said this week. "We had doubts every day. There were sleepless nights.

"We can finally see at the end of the dark tunnel. Cancellation was never an option for us. The IOC never abandons the athletes... we did it for the athletes."

There are also hefty financial incentives in play. Insiders estimate the IOC would have been on the hook for around $1.5 billion in lost broadcasting revenues if the Games had been cancelled.

The pandemic has not been the only hiccup in preparations though, with scandals ranging from corruption during the bidding process to plagiarism allegations over the design of the Tokyo 2020 logo.

The controversies kept coming right up to the eve of the Games, with the opening ceremony's director sacked on Thursday for making a joke referencing the Holocaust in a video from 1998.

Back in the sporting arenas, a new generation of Olympic stars are looking to shine after a decade dominated by the likes of Usain Bolt and Michael Phelps.

US swimmer Caeleb Dressel could target seven gold medals, and in track and field, 400 metre hurdlers Karsten Warholm of Norway and the USA's Sydney McLaughlin are among those hoping to emerge as household names.

Gymnastics meanwhile will see Simone Biles attempt to crown her dazzling career by equalling Larisa Latynina's record of nine Olympic gold medals.

New Olympic sports will also be on display in Tokyo, with surfing, skateboarding, sport climbing and karate all making their debut.

Olympics.jpg

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News Network
August 3,2021

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India men's hockey team lost their semifinal match against the 2018 world champions Belgium on Tuesday at the Tokyo Olympics, thus missing out on a chance to make their first Olympic final in over four decades. The last time India had played the men's hockey final at the Olympics was back in 1980 when the team had won the gold medal.

This was India's first meeting against Belgium since their 2-3 defeat in the FIH Pro League match in February 2019. But India's campaign is still not over as they would compete in the Bronze medal match on Thursday where they will face the loser of the second semifinal between Australia and Germany.

India got off to a nervy start, conceding an early penalty corner in the semifinal. Felix Denayer sent a ball inside the scoring circle, and the ball was deflected off by Rupinder Pal Singh. Despite Alexander Hendrickx not being on the turf at that point, Luick Luypaert made the most of the opportunity and scored an early goal for Belgium in the second minute of the first quarter.

It took India nine minutes to get things back to level-pegging as Harmanpreet Singh smashed a powerful dragflick past Belgium goalkeeper Vincent Vanasch after the World Champions conceded a penalty corner. Two minutes later, Amit Rohidas passed a ball to Mandeep Singh inside the circle, and the Indian forward turned a tomahawk shot into the nets to give India the lead.

But Belgium came back strong in the 2nd quarter, getting as many as four penalty corners within a matter of minutes. Hendrickx scored his 12th goal of the Olympics from a penalty corner, getting things again back to level terms as both teams went into the halftime with two goals apiece.

The third quarter was a cagey affair with neither of the two teams getting too many opportunities but India's inability to prevent penalty corners cost them in the final 15 minutes. Alexander Hendrickx scored two more goals, the fourth one coming from a penalty stroke.

With India putting an extra attacker on the field, and PR Sreejesh not on the turf, Belgium veteran John-John Dohmen scored the fifth goal in the dying minutes. But by that point, it was a mere formality.

It has been a good journey for India men's hockey team in Tokyo Olympics so far, defeating New Zealand 3-2 in their opening group game, and then picking up wins over Germany (2-0), Spain (3-1), Argentina (3-1), and Japan (5-3) in the group matches. Barring the 7-1 defeat against Australia, India had won all their games so far, but could not surpass the Belgium test. 

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News Network
July 21,2021

encounter1.jpg

Uttar Pradesh minister Anand Swaroop Shukla triggered a controversy when he dubbed those who had stayed back in India during the partition of the country in 1947 ''conspirators trying to break the country again'', and said that such people would be killed in 'encounters'.

Shukla, a minister of state in the Yogi Adityanath government, made the remarks while speaking to reporters in Ballia on Tuesday evening.

His remarks came in response to the reported statement of noted Urdu poet and Sahitya Academy Award (Urdu Literature) winner Munawwar Rana that he (Rana) would leave UP if the BJP returned to power after the 2022 Assembly polls in the state and Yogi Adityanath became the chief minister of the state again. He had also said that UP was not 'safe' for the Muslims anymore.

''Munawwar Rana is among the Muslims, who chose to stay back in India during the partition in 1947, as part of a conspiracy to divide the country against,'' Shukla said.

''Aise sabhi log, chahe woh jo bhi hon, encounter mein mare jayenge'' (all such people, whosoever they are, will be killed in encounters), he remarked.

Rana, an acclaimed Urdu poet, had returned the Sahitya Academy Award in 2015, a year after receiving it, and had vowed never to accept any government award in protest against the ''rising intolerance'' in the country.

Comments

Ramesh Mishra
 - 
Saturday, 31 Jul 2021

HINDU-MUSLIM: Read the history and the consequences of war. UP and Indian Hindu, Muslim, Sikh, Christian and the people of different religious faith learn to live together to preserve the future of India and its children.
Ramesh Mishra

Patriot
 - 
Wednesday, 21 Jul 2021

Confront will start now, RSS and Godse dynasty will cease to overthrow

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