‘India's actual covid death toll at least 3 million – nearly 10 times the official toll’

Agencies
July 21, 2021

The number of people who have died in the coronavirus pandemic in India is likely to exceed 3 million — nearly 10 times the official Covid-19 death toll — making it one of the worst human tragedies in the country’s history, according to a new study.

In an examination of the true toll of the pandemic in the sprawling country of 1.4 billion, the Center for Global Development, a Washington research institute, attempted to quantify excess deaths from all causes during the pandemic based on state data, international estimates, serological studies and household surveys.

“True deaths are likely to be in the several millions, not hundreds of thousands, making this arguably India’s worst human tragedy,” said its authors, one of whom is a former chief economic adviser to the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The official government numbers have been called into question repeatedly. Even as funeral pyres lit up the night sky and bodies washed up along the Ganges River, with death all around, the government was widely underreporting the scale of the devastation.

A chorus of experts have said the country’s official estimates are a gross understatement.

The study released Tuesday estimated that between 3.4 and 4.7 million more people than would normally be expected died between January 2020 and June 2021, and includes an estimate suggesting that deaths from Covid-19 may have reached 4 million.

“Estimating Covid deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive,” the authors wrote. “But all estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000; they also suggest that the first wave was more lethal than is believed.”

The authors said the undercount of death after the first wave of infections last year may have resulted, in part, from the fact that it was “spread out in time,” as opposed to the sharp curve of the second wave when hundreds of thousands of people died amid shortages of oxygen, beds and vaccines.

The study has said that the country’s inability to grasp the “scale of the tragedy in real time” during its first wave from March 2020 to February 2021 may have caused “the collective complacency that led to the horrors of the second wave.”

At the height of the second wave, interviews by New York Times reporters at cremation grounds in India exposed an extensive pattern of deaths far exceeding the official figures.

Nervous politicians and hospital administrators may also have undercounted or overlooked large numbers of dead, analysts said. And grieving families may be hiding Covid connections as well, out of shame, adding to the confusion.

India is still reporting nearly 40,000 new cases and about 500 deaths a day, according to a New York Times database. Less than 7% of the population is fully vaccinated.

 “The challenge of the pandemic is far from over,” said Arvind Subramanian, Modi’s former chief economic adviser and a senior fellow at Brown University who is a co-author of the study. “Vaccination offers the best hope but its pace needs to be ramped up considerably.”

Modi’s government has warned of an impending third wave of infections, which government scientists say could strike as early as August.

“The spirit of this paper is not to privilege any one estimate but simply to lay them out with transparency,” the authors of the excess deaths study, Abhishek Anand, Justin Sandefur and Subramanian, said.

“Given all the difficulties, getting at the true estimate will be difficult and only by piecing together data from different sources will we improve our understanding of the reality of the pandemic.”

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Ramesh Mishra
 - 
Thursday, 29 Jul 2021

COVID-19, DEATH IN INDIA: Since the British left India in 1947, India failed to establish a skilled life and death records registry. The administration is monitored by IAS and PCS as the justices are completely deficient and corrupt. Most politicians of India are illiterates, unskilled, uncivilised, takes bribes with the criminal record and criminal minds. Covid-19, the pandemic is mismanaged resulting in massive death and causing economic catastrophe all over India. The BJP is a tyrannical regime and the people of India have no trust in the ruling elites and in desperation to save their lives and family leaving India " Like Rats Fleeing A Sinking Ship". India is a doomed Nation, its survival is uncertain.
Ramesh Mishra
Victoria BC CANADA
{" A UP NRI and Victime of the BJP tyrannical regime residing in Canada since 1975"]

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News Network
May 17,2024

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Bengaluru: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday forecast heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in a few districts of Karnataka and said Bengaluru is likely to witness light to moderate rain and thunderstorms, with temperatures ranging from 30 degree Celsius to 22 degree Celsius in the next 24 hours.

Shivamogga, Chikkamagaluru, Kodagu, Hassan, Mysuru, Mandya, Chamrajanagara, Udupi and Dakshina Kannada districts are likely to experience heavy to very heavy rainfalls between May 17 and 21, said C S Patil, Director of Meteorological Centre, India Meteorological Department, Bengaluru.

According to India Meteorological Department, some places in Kodagu, Hassan, Mysuru, Mandya and Tumukuru districts will also witness, gusty winds (40-50 kmph) on May 18.

Moderate rain and thundershowers are also likely in Chikkaballapura, Chitradurga, Davangere, Kolar, Ramanagara and Vijayanagara districts.

IMD also predicts light to moderate rain very likely at some places over Bagalkote, Belagavi, Bidar, Dharwad, Gadag, Haveri, Kalaburgi, Koppal, Raichur and Yadgir districts.

On May 16, Channagiri in Davanagere district received the highest rainfall of 6 cm. 

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News Network
May 14,2024

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Bengaluru, May 14: JD(S) leader HD Revanna has been released from Parappana Agrahara Jail today, on May 14 after he was granted conditional bail. 

He was granted a conditional bail yesterday by a Bengaluru court in connection with a kidnapping case linked to sexual abuse allegation against him and his son Prajwal.

Revanna was arrested on May 4 by Special Investigative Team (SIT) officials in a kidnapping case registered against him at KR Nagar police station in the city. The case is linked to his son and Hassan MP Prajwal Revanna’s mega sex scam. 

Representing the JD(S) MLA from Holenarsipura, he termed this case a "political conspiracy" against him.

A SIT, constituted by the Karnataka government, is probing the alleged sexual abuse against against HD Revanna and his son Prajwal Revanna.

Prajwal Revanna, the incumbent MP, is seeking another term from Hassan Lok Sabha constituency. The voting for the seat took place on April 26.

Earlier, JD (S) chief HD Kumaraswamy alleged that Karnataka government does not want a fair inquiry.

"They are misusing the office. Nothing is going to happen ultimately. They wanted character assassination of HD Revanna and for that reason, they are using their office," Kumaraswamy told ANI.

Meeting Karnataka Governor Tawara Chanda Gehlot on May 9, a delegation of the Janata Dal (Secular) submitted a memorandum and urged Gehlot to recommend a CBI probe.

Prajwal sill absconding

The JD(S) MP, Prajwal, fled to Germany after Karnataka State Commission for Women Nagalakshmi Chowdhary wrote to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah seeking an investigation into over obscene videos of Prajwal Revanna allegedly sexually abusing several women. He has also skipped summons issued by the SIT to appear before it.

The ‘obscene videos’ involving Prajwal Revanna started making the rounds ahead of the first phase of Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka on April 26, triggering a political slugfest.

A lookout notice against Prajwal Revanna has been issued at all airports in India, along with a Blue Corner notice. A Blue Corner notice issued by Interpol helps countries collect and share information regarding a person's location and their activities as part of a criminal investigation.

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News Network
May 17,2024

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In scorching heat on a busy Kolkata street last month, commuters sought refuge inside a glass-walled bus shelter where two air conditioners churned around stifling air. Those inside were visibly sweating, dabbing at their foreheads in sauna-like temperatures that were scarcely cooler than out in the open.

Local authorities initially had plans to install as many as 300 of the cooled cabins under efforts to improve protections from a heat season that typically runs from April until the monsoon hits the subcontinent in June. There are currently only a handful in operation, and some have been stripped of their AC units, leaving any users sweltering.

“It doesn’t work,” Firhad Hakim, mayor of the city of 1.5 crore, said on a searing afternoon when temperatures topped 40C. “You feel suffocated.”

Attempts in Kolkata and across India to improve resilience to extreme heat have often been equally ill-conceived, despite a death toll estimated at more than 24,000 since 1992. Inconsistent or incomplete planning, a lack of funding, and the failure to make timely preparations to shield a population of 140 crore are leaving communities vulnerable as periods of extreme temperatures become more frequent, longer in duration and affect a wider sweep of the country.

Kolkata, with its hot, humid climate and proximity to the Bay of Bengal, is particularly vulnerable to temperature and rainfall extremes, and ranked by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as among the global locations that are most at risk.

An increase in average global temperatures of 2C could mean the city would experience the equivalent of its record 2015 heat waves every year, according to the IPCC. High humidity can compound the impacts, as it limits the human body’s ability to regulate its temperature.

Even so, the city — one of India's largest urban centres — still lacks a formal strategy to handle heat waves.

Several regions across India will see as many as 11 heat wave days this month compared to 3 in a typical year, while maximum temperatures in recent weeks have already touched 47.2C in the nation’s east, according to the Indian Meteorological Department. Those extremes come amid the Lok Sabha election during which high temperatures are being cited as among the factors for lower voter turnout.

At SSKM Hospital, one of Kolkata’s busiest, a waiting area teemed last month with people sheltering under colorful umbrellas and thronging a coin-operated water dispenser to refill empty bottles. A weary line snaked back from a government-run kiosk selling a subsidized lunch of rice, lentils, boiled potato and eggs served on foil plates.

“High temperatures can cause heat stroke, skin rashes, cramps and dehydration,” said Niladri Sarkar, professor of medicine at the hospital. “Some of these can turn fatal if not attended to on time, especially for people that have pre-existing conditions.” Extreme heat has an outsized impact on poorer residents, who are often malnourished, lack access to clean drinking water and have jobs that require outdoor work, he said.

Elsewhere in the city, tea sellers sweltered by simmering coal-fired ovens, construction workers toiled under a blistering midday sun, and voters attending rallies for the ongoing national elections draped handkerchiefs across their faces in an effort to stay cool. The state government in April advised some schools to shutter for an early summer vacation to avoid the heat.

Since 2013, states, districts and cities are estimated to have drafted more than 100 heat action plans, intended to improve their ability to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures. The Centre set out guidelines eight years ago to accelerate adoption of the policies, and a January meeting of the National Disaster Management Authority pledged to do more to strengthen preparedness.

The absence of such planning in Kolkata has also meant a failure to intervene in trends that have made the city more susceptible.

Almost a third of the city’s green cover was lost during the decade through 2021, according to an Indian government survey. Other cities including Mumbai and Bengaluru have experienced similar issues. That’s combined with a decline in local water bodies and a construction boom to deliver an urban heat island effect, according to Saira Shah Halim, a parliamentary candidate in the Kolkata Dakshin electoral district in the city’s south. “What we’re seeing today is a result of this destruction,” she said.

Hakim, the city’s mayor, disputes the idea that Kolkata’s preparations have lagged, arguing recent extreme weather has confounded local authorities. “Such a kind of heat wave is new to us, we’re not used to it,” he said. “We’re locked with elections right now. Once the elections are over, we’ll sit with experts to work on a heat action plan.”

Local authorities are currently ensuring adequate water supplies, and have put paramedics on stand-by to handle heat-induced illnesses, Hakim said.

Focusing on crisis management, rather than on better preparedness, is at the root of the country’s failings, according to Nairwita Bandyopadhyay, a Kolkata-based climatologist and geographer. “Sadly the approach is to wait and watch until the hazard turns into a disaster,” she said.

Even cities and states that already have heat action plans have struggled to make progress in implementing recommendations, the New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research said in a report last year reviewing 37 of the documents.

Most policies don’t adequately reflect local conditions, they often lack detail on how action should be funded and typically don’t set out a source of legal authority, according to the report.

As many as 9 people have already died as a result of heat extremes this year, according to the meteorological department, though the figure is likely to significantly underestimate the actual total. That follows about 110 fatalities during severe heat waves during April and June last year, the World Meteorological Organization said last month.

Even so, the handling of extreme heat has failed to become a “political lightning rod that can stir governments into action,” said Aditya Valiathan Pillai, among authors of the CPR study and now a fellow at New Delhi-based Sustainable Futures Collaborative.

Modi's government has often moved to contain criticism of its policies, and there is also the question of unreliable data. “When deaths occur, one is not sure whether it was directly caused by heat, or whether heat exacerbated an existing condition,” Pillai said.

In 2022, health ministry data showed 33 people died as a result of heat waves, while the National Crime Records Bureau – another agency that tracks mortality statistics – reported 730 fatalities from heat stroke.

Those discrepancies raise questions about a claim by the Centre that its policies helped cut heat-related deaths from 2,040 in 2015 to 4 in 2020, after national bureaucrats took on more responsibility for disaster risk management.

Local officials in Kolkata are now examining potential solutions and considering the addition of more trees, vertical gardens on building walls and the use of porous concrete, all of which can help combat urban heat.

India’s election is also an opportunity to raise issues around poor preparations, according to Halim, a candidate for the Communist Party of India (Marxist), whose supporters carry bright red flags at campaign events scheduled for the early morning and after sundown to escape extreme temperatures.

“I’m mentioning it,” she said. “It’s become a very, very challenging campaign. The heat is just insufferable.”

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