D-Day guide: Third straight RBI rate cut seen as economy cools

Agencies
June 6, 2019

Jun 6: The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cement its position as Asia’s most dovish central bank with a third straight interest-rate cut Thursday.

The six-member monetary policy committee led by Governor Shaktikanta Das will reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent on Thursday, say 31 of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, while three are penciling in a 50 basis points cut. The RBI may also switch its stance to accommodative from neutral, given that expectations are growing for the Federal Reserve to slash rates this year.

Inflation that’s stayed close to the lower end of RBI’s 2-6 per cent band for six months has given policy makers room to support economic growth. India is among central banks across Asia shifting to looser monetary policy to boost their economies amid risks from the US-China trade war. Philippines, Malaysia and New Zealand eased last month, while Australia cut interest rates this week for the first time in almost three years.

The policy decision will be announced at 11:45 a.m. in Mumbai, followed by a press conference 15 minutes later by Das. Here’s a look at what else to watch out for in the decision that comes weeks before the new government’s annual budget on July 5:

Subdued Growth

Gross domestic product growth slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in the first three months of the year. Investment has been subdued and early indicators from auto sales to air travel show consumption -- which contributes more than 60 per cent to GDP -- has waned amid a crisis in the shadow banking sector that’s curbed lending.

At its last policy meeting, the central bank cut its GDP forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.2 per cent from 7.4 per cent. Still, the reading depends on how the crucial monsoon season pans out. For now, the southwest monsoon, which waters more than half of India’s farmland between June and September, is expected to bring normal rainfall.

Economists have already trimmed GDP forecasts to 7.1 per cent for fiscal 2020 in the latest Bloomberg survey from 7.2 per cent previously.

“The muted growth seals the case for more rate cuts,” said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at Kotak Mahindra BankNSE -0.49 % Ltd. in Mumbai. “We maintain our expectation of 25 basis point rate cuts in June and August —- though an outside chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut in June itself could build up.”

Benign Inflation

With growth slowing and inflation expected to remain below the RBI’s 4 per cent medium-term target in 2019, the central bank has room to cut. Underlying inflation, which strips out volatile fuel and food prices, has eased since November and economists expect it to move toward the headline rate in the coming months.

Policy makers might choose to gloss over a recent uptick in food costs, given record grain stocks and declining oil prices.

Policy Stance

Apart from its likely rate cut, the RBI will have to tackle issues surrounding sluggish monetary policy transmission. Despite lowering rates by 50 basis points this year, bank lending costs have been rather sticky amid tighter liquidity. Those conditions, though, are showing nascent signs of easing.

“We think that rate cuts need to be accompanied by sustained injections of durable liquidity into the economy,” said Kapil Gupta, an economist at Edelweiss Securities Ltd. in Mumbai. “We also see a good chance of the policy stance shifting to accommodative/dovish from neutral currently.”

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News Network
December 13,2025

New Delhi: School-going children are picking up drug and smoking habits and engaging in consumption of alcohol, with the average age of introduction to such harmful substances found to be around 13 years, suggesting a need for earlier interventions as early as primary school, a multi-city survey by AIIMS-Delhi said.

The findings also showed substance use increased in higher grades, with grade XI/XII students two times more likely to report use of substances when compared with grade VIII students. This emphasised the importance of continued prevention and intervention through middle and high school.

The study led by Dr Anju Dhawan of AIIMS's National Drug Dependence Treatment Centre, published in the National Medical Journal of India this month, looks at adolescent substance use across diverse regions.

The survey included 5,920 students from classes 8, 9, 11 and 12 in urban government, private and rural schools across 10 cities -- Bengaluru, Chandigarh, Delhi, Dibrugarh, Hyderabad, Imphal, Jammu, Lucknow, Mumbai, and Ranchi. The data were collected between May 2018 and June 2019.

The average age of initiation for any substance was 12.9 (2.8) years. It was lowest for inhalants (11.3 years) followed by heroin (12.3 years) and opioid pharmaceuticals (without prescription; 12.5 years).

Overall, 15.1 per cent of participants reported lifetime use, 10.3 per cent reported past year use, and 7.2 per cent reported use in the past month of any substance, the study found.

The most common substances used in the past year, after tobacco (4 per cent) and alcohol (3.8 per cent), were opioids (2.8 per cent), followed by cannabis (2 per cent) and inhalants (1.9 per cent). Use of non-prescribed pharmaceutical opioids was most common among opioid users (90.2 per cent).

On being asked, 'Do you think this substance is easily available for a person of your age' separately for each substance category, nearly half the students (46.3 per cent) endorsed that tobacco products and more than one-third of the students (36.5 per cent) agreed that a person of their age can easily procure alcohol products.

Similarly, for Bhang (21.9 per cent), ganja/charas (16.1 per cent), inhalants (15.2 per cent), sedatives (13.7 per cent), opium and heroin (10 per cent each), the students endorsed that these can be easily procured.

About 95 per cent of the children, irrespective of their grade, agreed with the statement that 'drug use is harmful'.

The rates of substance use (any) among boys were significantly higher than those of girls for substance use (ever), use in the past year and use in the past 30 days. Compared to grade VIII students, grade IX students were more likely, and grade XI/XII students were twice as likely to have used any substance (ever).

The likelihood of past-year use of any substance was also higher for grade IX students and for grade XI/XII students as compared to grade VIII students.

About 40 per cent of students mentioned that they had a family member who used tobacco or alcohol each. The use of cannabis (any product) and opioid (any product) by a family member was reported by 8.2 per cent and 3.9 per cent of students, respectively, while the use of other substances, such as inhalants/sedatives by family was 2-3 per cent, the study found.

A relatively smaller percentage of students reported use of tobacco or alcohol among peers as compared to among family members, while a higher percentage reported inhalants, sedatives, cannabis or opioid use among peers.

Children using substances (past year) compared to non-users reported significantly higher any substance use by their family members and peers.

There were 25.7 per cent students who replied 'yes' to the question 'conflicts/fights often occur in your family'. Most students also replied affirmatively to 'family members are aware of how their time is being spent' and 'damily members are aware of with whom they spend their time'.

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News Network
December 16,2025

bengal.jpg

The deletion of over 58 lakh names from West Bengal’s draft electoral rolls following a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) has sparked widespread concern and is likely to deepen political tensions in the poll-bound state.

According to the Election Commission, the revision exercise has identified 24 lakh voters as deceased, 19 lakh as relocated, 12 lakh as missing, and 1.3 lakh as duplicate entries. The draft list, published after the completion of the first phase of SIR, aims to remove errors and duplication from the electoral rolls.

However, the scale of deletions has raised fears that a large number of eligible voters may have been wrongly excluded. The Election Commission has said that individuals whose names are missing can file objections and seek corrections. The final voter list is scheduled to be published in February next year, after which the Assembly election announcement is expected. Notably, the last Special Intensive Revision in Bengal was conducted in 2002.

The development has intensified the political row over the SIR process. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress have strongly opposed the exercise, accusing the Centre and the Election Commission of attempting to disenfranchise lakhs of voters ahead of the elections.

Addressing a rally in Krishnanagar earlier this month, Banerjee urged people to protest if their names were removed from the voter list, alleging intimidation during elections and warning of serious consequences if voting rights were taken away.

The BJP, meanwhile, has defended the revision and accused the Trinamool Congress of politicising the issue to protect what it claims is an illegal voter base. Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari alleged that the ruling party fears losing power due to the removal of deceased, fake, and illegal voters.

The controversy comes amid earlier allegations by the Trinamool Congress that excessive work pressure during the SIR led to the deaths by suicide of some Booth Level Officers (BLOs), for which the party blamed the Election Commission. With the draft list now out, another round of political confrontation appears imminent.

As objections begin to be filed, the focus will be on whether the correction mechanism is accessible, transparent, and timely—critical factors in ensuring that no eligible voter is denied their democratic right ahead of a crucial election.

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News Network
December 15,2025

Mangaluru police have arrested a 27-year-old NRI on his return from Saudi Arabia in connection with an Instagram post allegedly containing derogatory and provocative remarks about the Hindu religion, officials said on Monday.

The accused, Abdul Khader Nehad, a resident of Ulaibettu in Mangaluru, was working in Saudi Arabia when the post was uploaded, police said.

A suo motu case was registered at the Bajpe police station on October 11 after an allegedly offensive post circulated from the Instagram account ‘team_sdpi_2025’. Police said the content was flagged for being provocative and derogatory in nature.

During the investigation, technical analysis traced the Instagram post to Nehad, who was residing abroad at the time, a senior police officer said. Based on these findings, a Look Out Circular (LOC) was issued against him.

On December 14, Nehad arrived from Saudi Arabia at Calicut International Airport in Kerala, where he was taken into custody on arrival. Police said further investigation is underway.

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