India likely to experience above-normal cumulative monsoon rains in 2024

News Network
April 15, 2024

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

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News Network
July 19,2024

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Bengaluru, Jul 19: The Karnataka government was taking all necessary measures towards rescue and relief of those affected by flooding and landslides caused by heavy downpour in parts of the state, where monsoon rains since June has been 22 per cent above normal, Revenue Minister Krishna Byre Gowda said on Friday.

The Minister was replying to a discussion in the Legislative Assembly on floods and landslides in parts of the state due to rains, amid BJP and JD(S) protest from the well of the House against alleged financial irregularities in a state-run corporation.

"The government will take all necessary measures. We had information since January about above normal rains this year and accordingly we have made necessary arrangements. Since June 1 so far normally 365 mm rains should have happened, but 447 mm rains have occurred which is 22 per cent above normal," Gowda said.

He said: "In the three coastal districts normally 1,537 mm rains should have happened but this time it was 1,858, which is 21 per cent above normal, and in the Malnad region normally it should have been 733 mm, but it is 802 mm, which is 9 per cent above normal."

"So far 29 care centres have been set up, where 2,332 people are taking shelter, and to carry out relief works all the districts have been provided a total of Rs 777.54 crore; if required, more funds will be given, there is no shortage of funds," he added.

From July 1 to 19 there has been 244 mm rains in the state and this is highest in 30-40 years, the Minister said, adding, in Malnad districts it is 544 mm and in coastal region 1,154 mm.

Noting that five platoons of National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) have been deployed in six districts of coastal and Malnad regions, the Minister said they will be stationed for the entire monsoon season.

The government has identified gram panchayats that are vulnerable to floods, he said. 2,225 villages are mapped as vulnerable ones, under 1,247 gram panchayats, with 2,38,000 people.

"In each of these 1,247 gram panchayats a task force has been set up, and a taluk level officer has been appointed as nodal officer for each panchayat," he said. Funds have been allocated to each of these task forces to take up immediate relief work.

Blaming "unscientific work" by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for the massive landslide that hit National Highway 66 near Shirur village of Ankola taluk in Uttara Kannada district on July 16, the Minister said, the Chief Secretary has spoken to NHAI to correct the "unscientific designs."

A tanker containing LPG had fallen into the river during the tragedy, he said. With the help of technical experts, controlled release of gas was done to avoid any possible explosion.

According to preliminary reports, about 371 hectare of agriculture crops and 351 hectare of horticulture crops have been damaged, the Minister said. More crops have been damaged in the last couple of days and reports are awaited. About 2,450 houses have been damaged, including some partially.

"Houses will be provided for those who lost houses," he said, adding, immediate relief will be provided for crop losses.

"About 60 percent of our dams are filled," Gowda said. "Total capacity of our dams is 895 tmcft; last year this time it was 243 tmcft, but this year 536 tmcft water storage is there."

Leader of Opposition R Ashoka alleged that no relief is being given and there are no funds with the government.

"None of the Ministers have gone to affected regions so far. The government has become bankrupt. The government is dead," he added.

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News Network
July 17,2024

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Bengaluru: Search and rescue operations resumed on Wednesday morning in Shirur village in Uttara Kannada district, where a massive landslide claimed the lives of four people a day ago.

Vehicular traffic has been temporarily suspended on National Highway 66, where the incident occurred, officials said.

After an intensive rescue and search operation by the local police, a team of National Disaster Response Force, fire and emergency services and officials of other agencies amid rains, four bodies were recovered by Tuesday evening.

"So, far four bodies have been recovered and identified. Restoration and search operations have resumed early morning today," a senior police official said.

Among the four dead were members of the same family, who ran an eatery along the national highway.

Following the incident, the state government had said that three gas tankers had pulled up at the eatery for a tea break when mud and rocks plunged down the hill.

The landslip triggered by incessant rains also swept away two of the three tankers into the Gangavali river flowing on the other side of the road.

According to state government, the National Highways Authority of India while building National Highway 66 "cut the hill steep instead of a 45-degree slope resulting in the accident.

Meanwhile, vehicular movement has been banned till July 22 in Seethalayanagiri-Mullayanagiri area of Chikkamagaluru taluk due to collapse of hills and severe damage to the road surface owing to heavy rains.

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News Network
July 15,2024

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New Delhi: The BJP's strength in the Rajya Sabha fell by four Saturday after as many nominated members - Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani - completed their term.

All four were chosen - as non-aligned members - by President Droupadi Murmu on the advice of the ruling party, and formally allied with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government afterwards.

Their retirement brings the BJP's strength down to 86 and that of the party-led National Democratic Alliance to 101, which is below the current majority mark of 113 in the 245-member House.

The current strength of the Rajya Sabha is 225.

The Congress-led INDIA bloc has 87, of which the Congress has 26, Bengal's ruling Trinamool 13, and the Aam Aadmi Party and the DMK, in power in Delhi and Tamil Nadu, have 10 each.

Parties not aligned with either the BJP or the Congress - such as ex-Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao's BRS - nominated MPs and independents hold the rest.

What Do BJP's Reduced Numbers Mean?

It means the government is now reliant on non-NDA parties - such as ex-ally AIADMK of Tamil Nadu and former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress Party - to pass bills in the Upper House. As of now, assuming the BJP can count on the 15 votes from NDA parties' MPs, it will need a minimum of 13 additional 'aye's cast in its favour to push through bills.

The YSRCP (11) and the AIADMK (4) are the BJP's two most obvious 'allies', even if its relationship with the latter has been fractious since they split in December last year, months before the election.

Jagan Reddy's YSRCP has lent issue-based support to the BJP in the past, so at least 11 votes seem assured for Mr Modi's party. Former Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's BJD lent similar support too but, since it was beaten by the BJP in the May-June state election, has said it will not do so now.

The BJD has nine Rajya Sabha MPs.

If the AIADMK is unwilling to offer support, and the BJD of Naveen Patnaik has turned away, the BJP will then turn to votes from nominated members.

There are a total of 12 nominated members in the Rajya Sabha. Although non-aligned when brought in, since they are chosen by the government, in practice they tend to support the ruling party.

Non-aligned parties like the BRS, which has four MPs, and independents may also come into play.

Vacant Seats

There are a total of 20 seats vacant at this time, including 11 held by elected members for which polls are expected this year. Of these, there are two seats each in Maharashtra, Assam, and Bihar, and one each in Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Tripura.

The BJP-led alliance has the numbers to win seven - from Assam, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Tripura. And if it can keep its flock together in Maharashtra, it will win two more from there.

This could give the BJP as many as nine extra seats. If it wins those, and with the nominated members' votes, as well as the YSRCP's, it will have more than enough to cross the majority mark.

There are also four seats vacant from Jammu and Kashmir, which is expected to hold an Assembly election by September 30, in line with a Supreme Court order.

The Telangana seat is likely to be won by the Congress, which swept to power last year.

This is crucial because it will give the party enough votes to claim the Leader of the Opposition post in the Rajya Sabha. The Congress will then hold the LoP seat in both Houses.

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