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New Delhi: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which also includes Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JDU, is heading for a sweeping victory in Bihar, crossing the 204-seat mark in the 243-member Assembly and leaving the Mahagathbandhan in disarray.

Top Highlights of the Big Bihar Verdict

BJP leads in 93 seats, while Nitish Kumar’s JDU is ahead in 83. Union Minister Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leads in 19, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha in four, and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha in four constituencies.

The Mahagathbandhan is struggling, ahead in just 32 seats: Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD in 26, Congress in five, and CPI(ML)(L) and CPM in one each.

Jan Suraaj Party, launched by poll strategist Prashant Kishor and seen as a potential disruptor, has failed to take off; its vote share has fallen below even NOTA.

A surprise performer is Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, which is leading in six seats, largely driven by votes from the Seemanchal region.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav faces an unexpectedly tight contest in Raghopur, his family stronghold, which he has represented since 2015.

Maithili Thakur, the 25-year-old singer making her debut on a BJP ticket, is leading in Alinagar. Meanwhile, Tejashwi's estranged brother Tej Pratap Yadav, who floated his own party, is trailing by more than 12,000 votes.

The Mahagathbandhan’s collapse comes as a major shock. In 2020, the RJD had bagged 75 seats and emerged as the single largest party, while the Congress contributed 19 seats, bolstering the Opposition’s strength.

In the last election, the Opposition had fallen short of the majority mark by just 12 seats, raising hopes of a potential victory this year. Instead, it now appears unlikely to even claim the Leader of the Opposition post.

For the BJP, the performance continues its upward trajectory from 2020, when it surpassed Nitish Kumar’s JDU for the first time and became the dominant partner in the alliance.

Although the JDU has made significant gains compared to its 2020 tally of 43 seats, it still trails the BJP by around 10 seats. Analysts say the NDA’s strong showing is partly due to heavy participation by women voters, traditionally a strong base for Nitish Kumar.

The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal United (and their smaller allies, including Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party) will record a comfortable win in the Bihar election, picking up between 133 and 167 seats, data from multiple exit polls predicted Tuesday evening.

JVC's Polls:     NDA 135 - 150    MGB    88 - 103    OTH 3 - 6
Matrize:            NDA 147 - 167    MGB    70 - 90    OTH 2 - 10
People's Insight:    NDA 133 - 148    MGB    87 - 102    OTH 3 - 6
People's Pulse:    NDA 133 - 159    MGB    75 - 101    OTH 2 - 13
Dainik Bhaskar:    NDA 145 - 160    MGB    73 - 91    OTH 5 – 10

The Rashtriya Janata Dal-led opposition alliance, which includes the Congress, will slip to a chastening defeat, exit poll data indicated. The Mahagathbandhan is only expected to win between 70 and 102 seats, a far cry from the 75 the RJD won on its own five years ago.

And, crucially, poll strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, seen as a dark horse that could play the role of kingmaker in a politically volatile state, is likely to crash on its electoral debut.

Kishor's party is not expected to win more than five seats, at best.

A health warning: exit poll data is unpredictable and may not reflect final results.

Voting for the second and final phase – for 122 of the state's 243 seats – concluded hours earlier. The first phase was held on November 6 and votes will be counted on November 14.

The majority mark is 122.

Guwahati: Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has again made provocative remarks suggesting that Muslims in the state becoming more prosperous could signal the “surrender of the Assamese people” — a statement widely criticised as divisive and communal.

Addressing a press conference after a cabinet meeting, Sarma claimed that alongside demographic changes, Assam was witnessing an “economic shift,” with Muslims allegedly becoming wealthier. He further implied that this shift represented the beginning of “the Assamese people’s surrender.”

Citing data from 2001 to 2011, Sarma said the Hindu population growth rate was falling while the Muslim population continued to rise. “In every block of Assam, the growth of the Hindu population is coming down and the Muslim population is increasing,” he said.

The chief minister went on to link the issue to property ownership, asserting that land sales from Hindus to Muslims were disproportionately high. “We are seeing that the sale of land from Hindus to Muslims is very high, while the vice versa is less,” Sarma said, adding that such transactions are now scrutinised under a directive issued last year requiring government permission.

While claiming that his government has “no problem” with Assamese or indigenous Muslims, Sarma continued to frame economic mobility among Muslims as a threat to Assamese identity. “So far, we were thinking that only the numbers have risen, but now we see that even the wealth pattern has changed,” he said.

Critics say Sarma’s repeated references to religion in matters of demography and economy reflect a deliberate attempt to polarise communities and deepen mistrust. His comments equating Muslim prosperity with “surrender” of the Assamese people, they argue, expose the communal undercurrent in the state’s political discourse.

The chief minister said he would hold another press conference soon to “elaborate” on the matter.