The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which entered the Bihar election as the principal challenger to the ruling NDA, is heading toward one of its poorest performances in two decades. Despite contesting 143 seats, the Tejashwi Yadav–led party is currently ahead in only 32 constituencies — a dramatic fall from its position as the single largest party in the 2020 Assembly polls.
If the trends continue, this will mark RJD’s second-worst performance in a Bihar Assembly election. In 2005, when Nitish Kumar first swept to power riding a strong NDA wave, the RJD slipped to 55 seats amid heavy anti-incumbency against the Rabri Devi government. The party’s worst performance came in 2010, when it managed to win only 22 seats.
Two decades later, after multiple realignments and breakups, the Nitish Kumar–BJP combine appears to be cruising toward another decisive victory. The NDA is currently leading in 191 of the 243 Assembly seats, leaving the Mahagathbandhan far behind.
If these trends hold, Tejashwi Yadav could find himself presiding over the steepest electoral setback in the party’s history. The 36-year-old, who inherited the RJD’s leadership mantle from his father and party founder Lalu Prasad Yadav, had hoped for a strong resurgence this time.
Interestingly, despite trailing in many constituencies, the RJD continues to have the highest vote share among all contesting parties — indicating strong pockets of support but a failure to convert close contests into victories.
Several rounds of counting still remain, and the final picture may shift. However, as it stands, the RJD is staring at a significant rout, while the NDA looks firmly on course to form the next government in Bihar.
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