Degree row: Irani in the dock; Cong, AAP demand her sacking

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

In yet another setback to the Congress party amid the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, its candidate from Indore Akshay Kanti Bam withdrew his nomination on Monday, April 29, days before voting.

Interestingly, he had reached the Collector's office with BJP MLA Ramesh Mendola to withdraw his nomination. He also reportedly joined BJP. 

Senior BJP leader and state cabinet minister Kailash Vijayvargiya in a post on X said Bam was welcome to join the BJP.

"Congress Lok Sabha candidate from Indore Akshay Kanti Bam is welcome in the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, party national president J P Nadda, Chief Minister Mohan Yadav and state president VD Sharma," he said in the post.

The Congress had fielded Bam against sitting BJP MP Shankar Lalwani from the Indore Lok Sabha seat, where polling will be held on May 13.

Ambikapur (Chhattisgarh): Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday hit out at the Congress, saying the 'vote bank hungry' party wanted to implement reservation on the basis of religion.

Addressing a poll rally in Ambikapur, the headquarters of Surguja district in Chhattisgarh, PM Modi also said the Congress wanted to impose inheritance tax in the country and snatch the rights of people's children.

Some forces want a "weak" government of the Congress and "I.N.D.I." alliance in the country as they thought that if India becomes 'atmanirbhar' (self-reliant), their shops will be shut, he said.

"Today when I have come to Surguja, I want to present the Muslim League thinking of the Congress in front of the country. When their manifesto was released, on the same day I had said, and saying today also that the Congress manifesto has the imprint of Muslim League," Modi said.

When the Constitution was being drafted, it was decided under the leadership of Babasaheb Ambedkar that there would be no reservation on the basis of religion in India, he said.

"If there will be reservation then it will be for by Dalit brothers and sisters and tribal brothers and sisters," he said.

"But the vote bank hungry Congress never cared about the words of the great personalities, sanctity of the Constitution and the words of Babasaheb Ambedkar. Years ago, the Congress made an attempt to implement reservation on the basis of religion in Andhra Pradesh. Then Congress has planned to implement it in the entire country," Modi said.

They talked about implementing 15 per cent reservation on the basis of religion and said it will be done after curtailing the quota of the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes, he added.

In its 2009 manifesto, Congress's intention was the same and in the 2014 manifesto, it clearly said it will not leave this issue, the prime minister said.

The Congress wanted to change the Constitution and hand over rights of the SCs, STs and OBCs to its vote bank, he said.

The intention of the Congress is not good, it is not according to the Constitution, social justice and secularism. If anyone can protect your reservation, it is the BJP, Modi said.

"The Congress's eyes are not only on your reservation, but also on your earnings, your houses, shops and farms. The 'shehzada' of Congress (apparently referring to Rahul Gandhi) says they will conduct an X-ray of the property of every house and every family in the country. The Congress will snatch all these from you and they say that they will equally distribute them," he said.

Do you know to whom they will distribute it after 'looting' it from you? Modi asked, to which the people replied in affirmative.

"I need not to tell you to whom they will distribute," he added.

Modi further said the 'dangerous intentions' of Congress are coming to forth one by one and now it says it will impose inheritance tax.

"The advisor of shehzada of the shahi parivar, who was also the advisor to the shehzada's father, had said that more tax should be imposed on the middle class and those who earn by toiling hard. Now the Congress says it will impose inheritance tax. It will impose tax on the assets inherited by people from their parents. Now, the panja (Congress poll symbol) will snatch the assets from your children," he said without taking any name.

The Congress' mantra is 'loot of Congress zindagi ke sath bhi, zindagi ke baad bhi', he said.

"They (Congress) want to snatch your assets and rights of your children," Modi added.

The PM also said he had come to seek people's blessings for a developed Chhattisgarh and a developed India.