After military raid, India looks at more ways to pressure Pakistan

September 30, 2016

New Delhi, Sep 30: Beyond Thursday's raid by Indian special forces into Pakistan's side of divided Kashmir, New Delhi is considering new economic and diplomatic measures to bring pressure to bear on its neighbour, Indian officials said.

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In a rare public acknowledgement, Indian officials said teams of elite troops crossed the de facto border dividing the nuclear-armed rivals in the Himalayan state, killing several militants it believed were planning to attack major cities.

The raids were a direct response to an attack earlier this month on an army base in Kashmir that India blamed on Pakistan-based militants.

Pakistan denied India had conducted raids on territory it administers and said it was not involved in stoking trouble in Indian-controlled Kashmir. It has demanded New Delhi produce credible evidence to back its claims.

Some Indian officials said the military was not planning further attacks or a major military offensive against Pakistan.

But they said Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government was debating whether to use New Delhi's rising economic and diplomatic weight to squeeze Pakistan, a country one-fifth its size and with an economy seven times smaller.

"The objective is not just to go across the border and kill 10-12 people," said an Indian security official involved in the daily consultations since the Sept. 18 attack on an army base in the border town of Uri in which 18 Indian soldiers were killed.

"The objective is to bring about a change in Pakistani behaviour, and for that you need to move on multiple levels.

"The strategy will involve all instruments of national power. Military is only one of the options," added the official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Options under consideration include choking trade with Pakistan that takes place through third countries such as the United Arab Emirates, officials said, even though it is limited and in India's favour.

New Delhi is also considering building dams on rivers running into Pakistan and intensifying diplomatic pressure, hoping that it can show other countries how militants based in Pakistan impact the rest of the world, the officials added.

According to one of them, India could try to dissuade international companies from conducting business in Pakistan.

On The Offensive

The steps being considered signal a far more assertive posture by India under Modi's nationalist administration than the previous government, but it risks further escalating tensions between the countries.

Recent Indian governments have held off launching military strikes, including when gunmen from Pakistan mounted a three-day assault on Mumbai in 2008, for fear it could invite retaliation from Pakistan that could escalate into a nuclear conflict in the worst-case scenario.

One Indian security official described the new Indian approach as moving from a "defensive posture to defensive offence", under which India works on the vulnerabilities of Pakistan - its economy, internal security and international image as an unstable nation, home to militant Islamist groups.

"Pakistan's vulnerability is many times higher than that of India," the official said.Hours after Thursday's raid, one Indian government official said New Delhi would review its economic relationship, including trade flows, with Pakistan.

But he downplayed the possibility of India taking measures such as blocking travel between the two countries, saying the reality of policy-making was much more sober.

Blocking Trade

Official trade between India and Pakistan was a modest $2.6 billion in 2014, but informal trade is estimated to be closer to $5 billion, with jewellery, textiles and machinery exported from India through third-country ports such as Dubai.

India's informal imports from Pakistan through the same channels consist of textiles, dry fruits, spices and cement.

Indian security planners said a crackdown on such trade, in which some former members of Pakistan's powerful military are believed to be active, would help increase the pressure.

The head of Pakistan's Board of Investment, Miftah Ismail, said sanctions had usually not worked elsewhere in the world.

He said there was little trade between the two countries, and since much of it was in India's favour, any restrictions would affect India more than Pakistan.

"If India does (go ahead with economic sanctions), Pakistan will somehow react, and we will further impoverish the people in both countries," said Ismail, who is also a special assistant to the Pakistan prime minister. "I don't see anything good coming out of this."

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May 11,2024

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Out of jail and immediately hitting the campaign trail, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Saturday trained guns at Prime Minister Narendra Modi claiming that he will make way for Amit Shah next year when he turns 75 after sidelining all BJP leaders, including Yogi Adityanath, and jailing Opposition leaders.

Predicting that the BJP will be reduced to “220-230 seats” in the Lok Sabha polls, he claimed that Yogi Adityanath will be removed as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister in two months if at all BJP returns to power to ensure Shah’s elevation as Prime Minister, as Modi himself has set the 75-year retirement rule in his party.

Accusing Modi of being dictatorial and seeking to implement ‘One Nation, One Leader’, Kejriwal insisted that the Prime Minister is not seeking votes for himself  and  people voting for BJP should know that they are not voting for Modi but Shah while wondering whether the latter would implement ‘Modi ki Guarantees’.

He also defended his decision not to resign as Chief Minister after his arrest, as it was a “trap” set by the Prime Minister to “finish off” AAP  and felt that JMM top leader Hemant Soren, who resigned as Jharkhand Chief Minister, also should not have quit his post.

Addressing a press conference that turned out to be a meeting of AAP supporters at the party headquarters here a day after he was released from Tihar jail on interim bail, he also asked Modi to “learn from Kejriwal on how to fight corruption”, as he referred to the induction of leaders who were accused of graft into the BJP. 

In his 20-minute address, which came after his visit to the Hanuman Temple in Connaught Place in the national capital, Kejriwal said Modi wants to crush his party as he knows that the AAP with its good work would replace the BJP.

If Modi does 'good work', no one will talk about AAP but people will not accept the attempts to decimate his party, which is working for the people, Kejriwal said.

“The Prime Minister says he fights against corruption but is inducting thieves and dacoits into his party. A leader who he described as one involved in a Rs 70,000 crore scam was inducted into the party ten days after Modi made the charges. If you want to fight corruption, learn from Kejriwal,” he said, citing instances of sacking and arrests of AAP ministers in Delhi and Punjab.

Warning that Opposition leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Tejashwi Yadav, NK Stalin and Uddhav Thackeray will be jailed by Narendra Modi if BJP wins, he said his arrest was meant to be a message to the country that if Kejriwal can be taken into custody, then anybody can be.

“People need to know, his mission's name is 'One Nation, One Leader'. To achieve this, there are two ways. One is to jail all Opposition leaders and the second is to sideline all leaders in BJP if they win. They have already sidelined L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Sumitra Mahajan, Shivraj Singh Chouhan who brought BJP back to power in Madhya Pradesh, Vasundhara Raje, ML Khattar…” Kejriwal said.

“Who is next in line? It is Yogi Adityanath. Take it in writing from me, if BJP wins, the UP Chief Minister will be changed in two months...He wants to crush democracy in this country. I am fighting against it," he said.

Referring to questions on who will be I.N.D.I.A. bloc's Prime Ministerial candidate, he said he has a counter question as Modi is turning 75 next September and he himself has set the retirement rule in the party.

“Now my question is who is BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate? If they can form the government, Yogi Adityanath will be first sidelined and then Amit Shah will be made the Prime Minister. Modiji is not seeking votes for him but for Amit Shah. Who will fulfil Modi's guarantees? Will Amit Shah fulfil it? I don't think they are going to form a government. But those who are going to vote for BJP should know that they are voting for Amit Shah,” he said.

Insisting that I.N.D.I.A. bloc will form the next government and that AAP will be part of it, Kejriwal promised full statehood for Delhi in such a dispensation. Emphasising that he did not resign when he was arrested because Modi had scripted it to finish off the party, he said he wanted to show that if democracy was jailed, it would run from jail.
 

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May 8,2024

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Nearly 80 Air India Express flights were canceled after the cabin crew members went on a "mass sick leave", official sources said on Wednesday.

As many as 79 international and domestic flights were canceled after about 300 senior cabin crew members reported sick at the last minute and switched off their mobile phones.

The Air India Express management is currently trying to reach out to the crew, who are protesting against the new employment term at the Tata Group-owned airline, sources said.

The cabin crew has also alleged that there was a lack of equality in the treatment of the staff after the merger with Tata Group. They claim that some staff members were offered lower job position despite clearing interviews, sources said.

"A section of our cabin crew has reported sick at the last minute, starting last night, resulting in flight delays and cancellations. While we are engaging with the crew to understand the reasons behind these occurrences, our teams are actively addressing this issue to minimise any inconvenience caused to our guests as a result," an Air India Express spokesperson said.

"We sincerely apologise to our guests for this unexpected disruption and emphasise that this situation does not reflect the standard of service we strive to provide," the spokesperson added.

Guests impacted by cancellations will be offered a full refund or complimentary rescheduling to another date, the airline said.

Several passengers took to their social media accounts and complained about the sudden cancellations of their flights. They said that they had "no information" about the cancellations.

Some "very disappointed" passengers on X said that they had reached the airport when they were informed that their flights were canceled.

"We apologise for any inconvenience. Please be informed that your flight has been canceled due to operational reasons," Air India Express said in response to one of the posts on X.

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May 17,2024

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In scorching heat on a busy Kolkata street last month, commuters sought refuge inside a glass-walled bus shelter where two air conditioners churned around stifling air. Those inside were visibly sweating, dabbing at their foreheads in sauna-like temperatures that were scarcely cooler than out in the open.

Local authorities initially had plans to install as many as 300 of the cooled cabins under efforts to improve protections from a heat season that typically runs from April until the monsoon hits the subcontinent in June. There are currently only a handful in operation, and some have been stripped of their AC units, leaving any users sweltering.

“It doesn’t work,” Firhad Hakim, mayor of the city of 1.5 crore, said on a searing afternoon when temperatures topped 40C. “You feel suffocated.”

Attempts in Kolkata and across India to improve resilience to extreme heat have often been equally ill-conceived, despite a death toll estimated at more than 24,000 since 1992. Inconsistent or incomplete planning, a lack of funding, and the failure to make timely preparations to shield a population of 140 crore are leaving communities vulnerable as periods of extreme temperatures become more frequent, longer in duration and affect a wider sweep of the country.

Kolkata, with its hot, humid climate and proximity to the Bay of Bengal, is particularly vulnerable to temperature and rainfall extremes, and ranked by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as among the global locations that are most at risk.

An increase in average global temperatures of 2C could mean the city would experience the equivalent of its record 2015 heat waves every year, according to the IPCC. High humidity can compound the impacts, as it limits the human body’s ability to regulate its temperature.

Even so, the city — one of India's largest urban centres — still lacks a formal strategy to handle heat waves.

Several regions across India will see as many as 11 heat wave days this month compared to 3 in a typical year, while maximum temperatures in recent weeks have already touched 47.2C in the nation’s east, according to the Indian Meteorological Department. Those extremes come amid the Lok Sabha election during which high temperatures are being cited as among the factors for lower voter turnout.

At SSKM Hospital, one of Kolkata’s busiest, a waiting area teemed last month with people sheltering under colorful umbrellas and thronging a coin-operated water dispenser to refill empty bottles. A weary line snaked back from a government-run kiosk selling a subsidized lunch of rice, lentils, boiled potato and eggs served on foil plates.

“High temperatures can cause heat stroke, skin rashes, cramps and dehydration,” said Niladri Sarkar, professor of medicine at the hospital. “Some of these can turn fatal if not attended to on time, especially for people that have pre-existing conditions.” Extreme heat has an outsized impact on poorer residents, who are often malnourished, lack access to clean drinking water and have jobs that require outdoor work, he said.

Elsewhere in the city, tea sellers sweltered by simmering coal-fired ovens, construction workers toiled under a blistering midday sun, and voters attending rallies for the ongoing national elections draped handkerchiefs across their faces in an effort to stay cool. The state government in April advised some schools to shutter for an early summer vacation to avoid the heat.

Since 2013, states, districts and cities are estimated to have drafted more than 100 heat action plans, intended to improve their ability to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures. The Centre set out guidelines eight years ago to accelerate adoption of the policies, and a January meeting of the National Disaster Management Authority pledged to do more to strengthen preparedness.

The absence of such planning in Kolkata has also meant a failure to intervene in trends that have made the city more susceptible.

Almost a third of the city’s green cover was lost during the decade through 2021, according to an Indian government survey. Other cities including Mumbai and Bengaluru have experienced similar issues. That’s combined with a decline in local water bodies and a construction boom to deliver an urban heat island effect, according to Saira Shah Halim, a parliamentary candidate in the Kolkata Dakshin electoral district in the city’s south. “What we’re seeing today is a result of this destruction,” she said.

Hakim, the city’s mayor, disputes the idea that Kolkata’s preparations have lagged, arguing recent extreme weather has confounded local authorities. “Such a kind of heat wave is new to us, we’re not used to it,” he said. “We’re locked with elections right now. Once the elections are over, we’ll sit with experts to work on a heat action plan.”

Local authorities are currently ensuring adequate water supplies, and have put paramedics on stand-by to handle heat-induced illnesses, Hakim said.

Focusing on crisis management, rather than on better preparedness, is at the root of the country’s failings, according to Nairwita Bandyopadhyay, a Kolkata-based climatologist and geographer. “Sadly the approach is to wait and watch until the hazard turns into a disaster,” she said.

Even cities and states that already have heat action plans have struggled to make progress in implementing recommendations, the New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research said in a report last year reviewing 37 of the documents.

Most policies don’t adequately reflect local conditions, they often lack detail on how action should be funded and typically don’t set out a source of legal authority, according to the report.

As many as 9 people have already died as a result of heat extremes this year, according to the meteorological department, though the figure is likely to significantly underestimate the actual total. That follows about 110 fatalities during severe heat waves during April and June last year, the World Meteorological Organization said last month.

Even so, the handling of extreme heat has failed to become a “political lightning rod that can stir governments into action,” said Aditya Valiathan Pillai, among authors of the CPR study and now a fellow at New Delhi-based Sustainable Futures Collaborative.

Modi's government has often moved to contain criticism of its policies, and there is also the question of unreliable data. “When deaths occur, one is not sure whether it was directly caused by heat, or whether heat exacerbated an existing condition,” Pillai said.

In 2022, health ministry data showed 33 people died as a result of heat waves, while the National Crime Records Bureau – another agency that tracks mortality statistics – reported 730 fatalities from heat stroke.

Those discrepancies raise questions about a claim by the Centre that its policies helped cut heat-related deaths from 2,040 in 2015 to 4 in 2020, after national bureaucrats took on more responsibility for disaster risk management.

Local officials in Kolkata are now examining potential solutions and considering the addition of more trees, vertical gardens on building walls and the use of porous concrete, all of which can help combat urban heat.

India’s election is also an opportunity to raise issues around poor preparations, according to Halim, a candidate for the Communist Party of India (Marxist), whose supporters carry bright red flags at campaign events scheduled for the early morning and after sundown to escape extreme temperatures.

“I’m mentioning it,” she said. “It’s become a very, very challenging campaign. The heat is just insufferable.”

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