Delhi violence: Police File 10,000-page chargesheet against 15 accused under UAPA

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Russian President Vladimir Putin says Iran’s “tactful and wise” response to Israeli aggression on its consulate in Syria was the best way to punish the aggressor.

Putin made the remarks in a phone conversation with President Ebrahim Raeisi on Tuesday.

“What the Islamic Republic of Iran did in response to what happened criminally and in the light of the inaction of the [UN] Security Council, was the best way to punish the aggressor and represented the tactfulness and rationality of Iran's politicians,” Putin said.

The Russian president said the Israeli regime’s “terrorist act” against the Iranian consulate in Damascus was against all international standards and rules.

He also strongly criticized the United States and certain Western countries for creating tension in the region. “We believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the main pillars of stability and security in the region.”

“We firmly declare that we will respond to any action against Iran's interests with greater force and broader and more painful than the previous [response],” President Raeisi said in the phone call.

The Iranian president also said Tehran's response to the Israeli regime was within the framework of international law, saying Israel’s terrorist act was a clear violation of international law and a serious threat to global peace.

“The destructive role of the US and some western countries and the inaction and inefficiency of international institutions, including the United Nations and the Security Council, in dealing with the aggressive action of the Zionist regime in attacking the Iranian consulate in Syria caused the Islamic Republic of Iran to exercise its right to self-defense.”

Raeisi further thanked Moscow for its “principled and constructive” stance against the Israeli aggression in Damascus. 

He appreciated the diplomatic efforts of the Russian government to thwart the conspiracies of the United States and certain Western countries in the UN Security Council.

“To those countries that have adopted double standards in the face of the crimes of the Zionist regime and express concerns about escalating tensions in the region, we advise them to rather stop supporting the Zionists genocide and crimes against the oppressed Palestinian people to preserve peace and stability in the region,” Raeisi said.

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) launched extensive missile and drone strikes against the occupied territories late on April 13 in response to Israel’s missile attack on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Operation True Promise has inflicted damage on Israeli military bases across the occupied territories. The extent of damage is yet to be specified. 

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a commander of the IRGC Quds Force, his deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, and five of their accompanying officers were assassinated in the Israeli attack on Iran’s diplomatic mission.

Qatar and Kuwait have banned any use of their airspace and air bases for attacks against Iran amid heightened tensions between Iran and the Israeli regime following an Israeli attack early this month on an Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria.

Reports on Saturday indicated that both Qatar and Kuwait had issued directives to the United States stressing that the US military will not be allowed to use air bases in the two countries for carrying out any potential airstrikes on Iran.

Qatar and Kuwait have also indicated that their airspace will not be available for any military action against Iran.

The US has military aircraft at the Ali Al Salem Air Base and Ahmed Al Jaber Air Base in Kuwait. The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is also the largest US air base in the West Asia region.

The directives issued by Iran’s two Arab neighbors come amid reports showing that Iran is preparing to respond to an Israeli airstrike that killed two of its senior military commanders in its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on April 1.

Washington has urged Iran to deescalate while saying that it will defend Israel in case it is attacked.

Iran, which has no direct relations with the US, has called on regional Arab countries to advise the US not to interfere if Israel is attacked.

Countries have been wary of a major confrontation in the region more than six months into an Israeli onslaught on the Gaza Strip.

Reports show they have already limited the ability of the US to use their airspace and air bases for attacks on resistance groups that are allied with Iran and have been attacking Israeli and US interests in the region since the start of the Israeli aggression on Gaza.