Early signs of India economic recovery wane as coronavirus cases surge

News Network
August 11, 2020

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India’s economic activity monitors are beginning to flatline just months after showing signs of returning to life.

Latest data from Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google showed mobility suffered in recent weeks after notching up an increase since May, when Asia’s third-largest economy began exiting a nationwide lockdown to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Elsewhere, high-frequency indicators from purchasing mangers’ surveys to fuel sales show growth plateauing in July. And that’s not all.

Bank credit shrank 0.8% in the two weeks to July 17 from a fortnight ago, tax collection moderated last month, while a measure of inter-state movement of goods traffic by road and rail was little changed. Data from private research firm, Centre for Monitoring India Economy Pvt., shows unemployment rising slightly after some improvement in June and July.

The drop in activity may be directly linked to India’s efforts to fight the virus outbreak. The nation, which is adding more than 50,000 cases daily, is seeing some of its most-industrialised states reimposing lockdowns to stop the spread of Covid-19.

India’s exit from the lockdown is not calibrated, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, an economist with the State Bank of India. “We have been resorting to unplanned lockdowns that might be acting as a constraint on sustenance of economic activity.”

The economy is already headed for its worst slump in more than four decades, with the International Monetary Fund estimating the nation’s gross domestic product will shrink 4.5% this year.

More Indicators

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index, which tracks the pace of economic activity, showed a slight improvement in the week ended Aug. 9, but economists led by Sonal Varma said the data point to an uneven recovery and largely reflect pent-up demand.

“However, a second wave of Covid-19 cases, combined with a ‘rolling wave’ in traditionally safer states (in the south and the east), increase risks of protracted quasi-lockdown measures and tempering of sequential improvement in activity once the post-lockdown momentum ebbs,” wrote Varma and Aurodeep Nandi.

India, which hogged TomTom NV’s 2019 Traffic Index for congestion, saw fewer jams in July as people cut down on venturing out, showed an analysis by Rini Sen and Sanjay Mathur, economists at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. Recovery is still a long way off as consumption indicators continue to slump, they said.

“We are worried that the economic recovery will remain unstable with rising infection rates,” said Kunal Kundu, an economist with Societe Generale GSC Pvt. “Contraction would likely be deeper. This would prolong the uncertainty especially around jobs and salary cuts.”

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News Network
April 23,2024

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The Karnataka government's decision to categorise the entire Muslim community as a backward caste for reservation purposes in the state has drawn criticism from the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC), which said such blanket categorisation undermines the principles of social justice.

According to the data submitted by the Karnataka Backward Classes Welfare Department, all castes and communities within the Muslim religion have been enlisted as socially and educationally backward classes under Category IIB in the State List of Backward Classes.

The NCBC, during a field visit last year, examined the state's reservation policy for OBCs in educational institutions and government jobs.

"All castes/communities of Muslim religion of Karnataka are being treated as socially and educationally backward classes of citizens and listed as Muslim Caste separately under Category IIB in the State List of Backward Classes for providing them reservation in admission into educational institutions and in appointments to posts and vacancies in the services of the State for the purpose of Articles 15(4) and 16(4) of the Constitution of India," the NCBC said in a statement on Monday night.

This categorisation has led to the provision of reservation benefits for 17 socially and educationally backward castes under Category I and 19 castes under Category II-A, respectively.

The NCBC said the blanket categorisation of Muslims as a backward caste undermines the principles of social justice, particularly for the marginalised Muslim castes and communities identified as socially and educationally backward.

However, the NCBC emphasised that while there are indeed underprivileged and historically marginalised sections within the Muslim community, treating the entire religion as backward overlooks the diversity and complexities within Muslim society.

"The religion-based reservation affects and works against ethics of social justice for categorically downtrodden Muslim castes/communities and identified socially and educationally backward Muslim castes/communities under Category-I (17 Muslim castes) and Category II-A (19 Muslim castes) of State List of Backward Classes. Hence, socially and educationally backward castes/communities cannot be treated at par with an entire religion," the NCBC stated.

The NCBC also voiced concern over the impact of such reservations on the overall framework of social justice, particularly in the context of local body polls.

While Karnataka provides 32 per cent reservation to backward classes in local body elections, including Muslims, the Commission stressed the need for a nuanced approach that accounts for the diversity within these communities.

According to the 2011 Census, Muslims constitute 12.92 per cent of the population in Karnataka.

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News Network
April 11,2024

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The number of Palestinians arrested by Israeli military forces in the occupied West Bank has surged to 8,165 since October 7, when Israel launched its relentless offensive against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The Palestinian Prisoners Society and the Commission of Detainees and ex-Detainees in a joint statement on Tuesday said that over the past 24 hours, Israeli forces had arrested 20 Palestinians across the West bank.

The statement said that most of the arrests took place in Tulkarm, with additional arrests scattered across other cities, towns and refugee camps in the West Bank such as Beit Lahm, al-Khalil, Ramallah, Nablus, Tubas, and al-Quds.

The arrests were made amidst reports of widespread abuse, severe beatings, threats against detainees and their families, and extensive vandalism in citizens' homes and prisoners' residences in the Israeli prisons.

In the aftermath of the al-Aqsa Storm, over 8,165 arrests were made in the West Bank, with individuals including children being detained from their homes, at military checkpoints, coerced into surrendering, and even taken hostage, the statement revealed.

These figures do not include the thousands of adults and children the Israeli army has detained, tortured and interrogated in makeshift prisons across Gaza, outside any legal or civilian oversight.

Conditions for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails have allegedly worsened considerably, with detainees experiencing extreme overcrowding and limited access to essential rights, including food, water, electricity, medical care, family visits, and legal assistance.

Palestinian prisoner groups have repeatedly reported that Palestinians in Israeli prisons are being denied medical care, which pushes those jailed to the brink of death.

At least 10 Palestinians have died in Israeli prisons since Israel’s war on Gaza began, according to Palestinian news agency WAFA. But an investigation by Israeli daily Haaretz revealed that the number was actually at least 27. Rights groups put the number even higher.

Israel has intensified its attacks against Palestinians throughout the West Bank since October 7, when it launched a devastating war on the besieged Gaza Strip.

Since then, the Israeli forces and settlers have killed at least 459 Palestinians from the West Bank, with over 4,750 others sustaining injuries.

In the span of the past six months, at least 33,482 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have been killed in Gaza. The relentless violence has also resulted in the mass displacement of the 2.3 million people inhabitants of the Gaza Strip.

Concerns have been raised regarding the fate of those who have gone missing, as they may be trapped beneath the rubble or confined within makeshift Israeli prisons.

The significant number of Palestinian detainees remaining in Israeli prisons is a crucial role in truce negotiations between Palestinian resistance group Hamas and Israel.

About 130 of the 250 Israeli captives taken during Operation Al-Aqsa Storm are still in Gaza after a provisional truce deal in December saw the exchange of a number of prisoners between the two sides.

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News Network
April 17,2024

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Russian President Vladimir Putin says Iran’s “tactful and wise” response to Israeli aggression on its consulate in Syria was the best way to punish the aggressor.

Putin made the remarks in a phone conversation with President Ebrahim Raeisi on Tuesday.

“What the Islamic Republic of Iran did in response to what happened criminally and in the light of the inaction of the [UN] Security Council, was the best way to punish the aggressor and represented the tactfulness and rationality of Iran's politicians,” Putin said.

The Russian president said the Israeli regime’s “terrorist act” against the Iranian consulate in Damascus was against all international standards and rules.

He also strongly criticized the United States and certain Western countries for creating tension in the region. “We believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the main pillars of stability and security in the region.”

“We firmly declare that we will respond to any action against Iran's interests with greater force and broader and more painful than the previous [response],” President Raeisi said in the phone call.

The Iranian president also said Tehran's response to the Israeli regime was within the framework of international law, saying Israel’s terrorist act was a clear violation of international law and a serious threat to global peace.

“The destructive role of the US and some western countries and the inaction and inefficiency of international institutions, including the United Nations and the Security Council, in dealing with the aggressive action of the Zionist regime in attacking the Iranian consulate in Syria caused the Islamic Republic of Iran to exercise its right to self-defense.”

Raeisi further thanked Moscow for its “principled and constructive” stance against the Israeli aggression in Damascus. 

He appreciated the diplomatic efforts of the Russian government to thwart the conspiracies of the United States and certain Western countries in the UN Security Council.

“To those countries that have adopted double standards in the face of the crimes of the Zionist regime and express concerns about escalating tensions in the region, we advise them to rather stop supporting the Zionists genocide and crimes against the oppressed Palestinian people to preserve peace and stability in the region,” Raeisi said.

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) launched extensive missile and drone strikes against the occupied territories late on April 13 in response to Israel’s missile attack on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Operation True Promise has inflicted damage on Israeli military bases across the occupied territories. The extent of damage is yet to be specified. 

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a commander of the IRGC Quds Force, his deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, and five of their accompanying officers were assassinated in the Israeli attack on Iran’s diplomatic mission.

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