Early signs of India economic recovery wane as coronavirus cases surge

News Network
August 11, 2020

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India’s economic activity monitors are beginning to flatline just months after showing signs of returning to life.

Latest data from Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google showed mobility suffered in recent weeks after notching up an increase since May, when Asia’s third-largest economy began exiting a nationwide lockdown to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Elsewhere, high-frequency indicators from purchasing mangers’ surveys to fuel sales show growth plateauing in July. And that’s not all.

Bank credit shrank 0.8% in the two weeks to July 17 from a fortnight ago, tax collection moderated last month, while a measure of inter-state movement of goods traffic by road and rail was little changed. Data from private research firm, Centre for Monitoring India Economy Pvt., shows unemployment rising slightly after some improvement in June and July.

The drop in activity may be directly linked to India’s efforts to fight the virus outbreak. The nation, which is adding more than 50,000 cases daily, is seeing some of its most-industrialised states reimposing lockdowns to stop the spread of Covid-19.

India’s exit from the lockdown is not calibrated, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, an economist with the State Bank of India. “We have been resorting to unplanned lockdowns that might be acting as a constraint on sustenance of economic activity.”

The economy is already headed for its worst slump in more than four decades, with the International Monetary Fund estimating the nation’s gross domestic product will shrink 4.5% this year.

More Indicators

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index, which tracks the pace of economic activity, showed a slight improvement in the week ended Aug. 9, but economists led by Sonal Varma said the data point to an uneven recovery and largely reflect pent-up demand.

“However, a second wave of Covid-19 cases, combined with a ‘rolling wave’ in traditionally safer states (in the south and the east), increase risks of protracted quasi-lockdown measures and tempering of sequential improvement in activity once the post-lockdown momentum ebbs,” wrote Varma and Aurodeep Nandi.

India, which hogged TomTom NV’s 2019 Traffic Index for congestion, saw fewer jams in July as people cut down on venturing out, showed an analysis by Rini Sen and Sanjay Mathur, economists at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. Recovery is still a long way off as consumption indicators continue to slump, they said.

“We are worried that the economic recovery will remain unstable with rising infection rates,” said Kunal Kundu, an economist with Societe Generale GSC Pvt. “Contraction would likely be deeper. This would prolong the uncertainty especially around jobs and salary cuts.”

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News Network
April 20,2024

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, on Friday, said that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) plans to reintroduce electoral bonds in some capacity following extensive consultations with all stakeholders, should it come back to power in the 2024 general elections, according to a report in the Hindustan Times (HT).

HT cited Nirmala Sitharam as saying, “We still have to do a lot of consultation with stakeholders and see what is it that we have to do to make or bring in a framework which will be acceptable to all, primarily retain the level of transparency and completely remove the possibility of black money entering into this.”

However, the Centre has not yet decided whether to seek a review of the ruling made by the Supreme Court (SC), she said.

She further added, “What the scheme, which has been just thrown out by the Supreme Court, brought in was transparency. What prevailed earlier was just free-for-all.”

Launched in 2018, electoral bonds were accessible for acquisition at any State Bank of India (SBI) branch. Contributions made through this programme by corporations and even foreign entities via Indian subsidiaries received full tax exemption, while the identities of the donors remained confidential, safeguarded by both the bank and the recipient political parties.

On February 15, a five-judge Constitution Bench struck down the scheme, deeming it ‘unconstitutional’ due to its complete anonymisation of contributions to political parties. Additionally, the Bench stated that the articulated objectives of curbing black money or illegal election financing did not warrant disproportionately infringing upon voters’ right to information.

FM Sitharaman said, some aspects of the scheme need improvement and they will be brought back following consultations.

She also lashed out at the Opposition’s claims that the BJP disregarded criminal charges against leaders who switched from other parties to join the ruling party.

The HT quoted her as saying, “The BJP can’t sit here and say, you come to my party today, and the case will be closed tomorrow. The case has to go through the courts that have to take a call; they will not just say, “Oh, he’s come to your party, close the case.” Doesn’t happen that way. So is this washing machine a term they want to use for the courts?”

She further said that the Union government plans to simplify the process of taxation and make it easy for investments to come through into the country.

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News Network
April 24,2024

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With the Karnataka transport department extending the deadline for the installation of High Security Registration Plate (HSRP) twice--- in November last year and February, it is no longer planning to extend the same. The department ordered for the installation of HSRP before May 31.

The transport department through a notification in August last year, had mandated the installation on all the vehicles that were registered in the state prior to April 1, 2019. According to transport officials, there are nearly two crore vehicles that are supposed to get HSRP for their vehicles.

“As of now, the state has registered only 34 lakh HSRP installations, despite extending the deadline twice. From nearly 18 lakh installations since February, the numbers have almost doubled. However, there are still a large number of vehicles that have to opt for HSRP,” said C Mallikarjuna, Additional Commissioner for Transport (Enforcement).

“We will wait till May 31 to check for the total number of vehicles that fall in line. We are expecting HSRP installations to touch 75 lakh, after which we will consider an extension as the numbers indicate that people are falling in line and if some more time is given everyone will get it done. However, if we do not reach that number before the deadline, we will request the government not to extend the deadline but urge for an enforcement,” he said.

He also stated that a fine of Rs 500 will be imposed for the first time and if vehicle owners do not fall in line, it will be Rs 1,000 later until they have installed HSRP. “We will wait till the Model Code of Conduct ends and take the government’s opinion. We are going to request the government for strict enforcement if the HSRP installations are not satisfactory,” he added.

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News Network
April 26,2024

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The Supreme Court of India on Friday, April 26, rejected pleas seeking 100% cross-verification of votes cast using EVMs with a Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) and said “blindly distrusting” any aspect of the system can breed unwarranted scepticism.

A bench of Justices Sanjiv Khanna and Dipankar Datta delivered two concurring verdicts. It dismissed all the pleas in the matter, including those seeking to go back to ballot papers in elections.

An EVM comprises three units – the ballot unit, the control unit and the VVPAT. All three are embedded with microcontrollers with a burnt memory from the manufacturer. Currently, VVPATs are used in five booths per assembly constituency.

EVM VVPAT case: Supreme Court issues two directives

1.    Justice Khanna directed the Election Commission of India to seal and store units used to load symbols for 45 days after the symbols have been loaded to electronic voting machines in strong rooms.

2.    The Supreme Court also allowed engineers of the EVM manufacturers to verify the microcontroller of the machines after the declaration of the results at the request of candidates who stood second and third. The top court said the request for the verification of the microcontroller can be made within seven days of the declaration of the results after payment of fees.

Option for candidates to seek verification of EVM programmes

•    Candidates who secure second and third position in the results can request for the verification of burnt memory semicontroller in 5% of the EVMs per assembly segment in a Parliamentary constituency. The written request to be made within seven days of the declaration of the results.

•    *On receiving such a written request, the EVMs shall be checked and verified by a team of engineers from the manufacturer of the EVMs.

•    Candidates should identify the EVMs to be checked by a serial number of the polling booth.

•    Candidates and their representatives can be present at the time of the verification.

•    After verification, the district electoral officer should notify the authenticity of the burnt memory.

•    Expenses for the verification process, as notified by the ECI, should be borne by the candidate making the request.
What did the Supreme Court say?

•    "If EVM is found tampered during verification, fees paid by the candidates will be refunded," the bench said.

•    "While maintaining a balanced perspective is crucial in evaluating systems or institutions, blindly distrusting any aspect of the system can breed unwarranted scepticism...," Justice Datta said.

Who filed the petitions?

NGO Association for Democratic Reforms, one of the petitioners, had sought to reverse the poll panel's 2017 decision to replace the transparent glass on VVPAT machines with an opaque glass through which a voter can see the slip only when the light is on for seven seconds.

The petitioners have also sought the court's direction to revert to the old system of ballot papers.

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