Fitch revises India GDP forecast, sees contraction at 9.4 per cent

Agencies
December 8, 2020

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New Delhi, Dec 8: Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India's GDP forecast to -9.4 per cent in the current fiscal year to March 2021 from a previously projected contraction of 10.5 per cent after the economy staged a sharper rebound in the second quarter.

In its Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said the coronavirus recession has inflicted severe economic scarring and the country needs to repair balance sheets and increase caution about long-term planning.

"We now expect GDP to contract 9.4 per cent in the fiscal year to end March 2021 (FY21) (+1.1 percentage point), followed by +11 per cent growth (unchanged) and +6.3 per cent growth (+0.3pp) in the following years," the rating agency said.

The projections compare to a GDP growth of 4.2 per cent in 2019-20 (April 2019 to March 2020) fiscal and 6.7 per cent annual expansion between 2015 and 2019.

In September, Fitch had sharply lowered its forecast for India's gross domestic product (GDP) to a contraction of 10.5 per cent in current fiscal 2020-21 (FY21) versus its previous estimate of 5 per cent contraction.

On Tuesday, Fitch said the Indian economy staged a sharper rebound in the July-September quarter from the coronavirus-induced recession. GDP fell 7.5 per cent year-on-year, up from -23.9 per cent in the April-June quarter.

"The rebound in activity was especially sharp in the manufacturing sector: output reached its pre-pandemic level in 3Q20 (July-September), and the manufacturing PMI hints at further gains," it said adding that manufacturing is buoyed by strong demand for autos and pharmaceutical products, in particular.

The rebound in the services sector was more muted amid continued social distancing, with containment measures scaled back only gradually.

"The outlook is brighter owing to an expected rollout of various vaccines in 2021. India has pre-ordered 1.6 billion doses including 500 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. Distribution should allow a faster-than-expected easing of social-distancing restrictions and boost sentiment," it said.

However, it seems likely that the vaccine rollout over the next 12 months will not reach the majority of the people given the huge logistical and distribution challenges in a heavily populated country like India, Fitch said.

Regional shutdowns are likely in the next few months while the virus is still spreading.

The coronavirus recession, it said, has nevertheless inflicted severe economic scarring.

"The need to repair balance sheets, increased caution about long-term planning, and firm closures will limit investment demand. Furthermore, increased financial-sector weakness amid deteriorating asset quality will hold back credit provision," the rating agency said.

The failure of another bank in recent weeks the third failure in the past 16 months underlines the challenges in the financial sector.

Consumer prices have continued to accelerate in recent months, buoyed by lingering supply disruptions.

This, Fitch said, has deterred the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from resuming its easing cycle.

"We think inflation has now peaked and should start to decelerate rapidly on favourable base effects and an easing of supply disruptions. This should provide room for the RBI to cut interest rates in 2021," it said.

Fitch saw consumer price inflation at 4.9 per cent in the current fiscal, which would ease to 3.5 per cent in the next.

For the global economy, it projected a less severe decline in GDP at -3.7 per cent in 2020 compared to -4.4 per cent in the September projection.

It also revised up its annual world GDP growth forecast for 2021, but only modestly, to 5.3 per cent (from 5.2 per cent), as the deteriorating outlook in the very near term partially offsets a stronger outlook from the sector half of the year.

"We are now significantly more optimistic for 2022, as we assume vaccine rollout will facilitate a material easing in social distancing," it said.

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News Network
December 7,2025

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Mangaluru, Dec 7: A rare bamboo shrimp has been rediscovered on mainland India more than 70 years after it was last reported, confirming for the first time the presence of Atyopsis spinipes in the country. The find was made by researchers from the Centre for Climate Change Studies at Sathyabama Institute of Science and Technology, Chennai, during surveys in Karnataka and Odisha.

The team — shrimp expert Dr S Prakash, PhD scholar K Kunjulakshmi, and Mangaluru-based researcher Maclean Antony Santos — combined field surveys, ecological assessments and DNA analysis to identify the elusive species. Their findings, published in Zootaxa, resolve decades of taxonomic confusion stemming from a 1951 report that misidentified the species as Atyopsis moluccensis without strong evidence.

The shrimp has now been confirmed at two locations: the Mulki–Pavanje estuary near Mangaluru and the Kuakhai River in Bhubaneswar. Historical specimens from the Andaman Islands, previously labelled as A. moluccensis, were also found to be misidentified and actually belong to A. spinipes.

The rediscovery began after an aquarium hobbyist in Odisha spotted a shrimp in 2022, prompting systematic surveys across Udupi, Karwar and Mangaluru. Four female specimens were collected in Mulki and one in Odisha, all genetically matching.

Researchers warn the species may exist in very small, vulnerable populations as freshwater habitats face increasing pressure from pollution, sand mining and infrastructure development. All verified specimens have been deposited with the Zoological Survey of India for future reference.

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News Network
November 24,2025

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Israel has launched a new act of aggression on a residential neighborhood in Lebanon's capital, Beirut, killing and injuring about two dozen civilians.

The Israeli regime's military said in a statement that its forces carried out a so-called precise strike in a residential apartment in Dahiyeh in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sunday.

The aggression targeted residential areas, killing at least five people and injuring more than 28 people, Lebanon's Health Ministry said. 

Hezbollah announced the martyrdom of senior Hezbollah commander Haytham Ali Tabatabai and four resistance fighters.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun condemned the airstrike, calling it a clear demonstration of Tel Aviv’s disregard for repeated international calls to halt violations on Lebanese soil.

“Israel refuses to implement international resolutions and all efforts aimed at ending the escalation and restoring stability,” Aoun said, urging the international community to take action to prevent further aggression.

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement also condemned the attack, holding the international community accountable. 

“The international community bears responsibility and continues to provide cover for these attacks as long as it does not restrain the occupiers,” said Ali Abu Shahin, a member of the group’s political bureau.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced that the Israeli army carried out a strike “in the heart of Beirut."

Netanyahu reportedly approved the operation following recommendations from top Israeli security officials.

Two senior US officials commented on the Israeli strike.

The first official said that Israel did not notify Americans in advance about the attack. "We were informed immediately after the strike was carried out."

The second senior official said that the "US knew for several days that Israel was planning to escalate its strikes in Lebanon, but did not know in advance the timing, location, or target of the strike."

Speaking from the site of the Israeli strike, Lebanese MP Ali Ammar condemned the attack as part of a broader campaign of aggression that has targeted "all of Lebanon since the Washington-sponsored ceasefire."

He stated that "any attack on Lebanon is a violation of red lines; this aggression is part and parcel of the entity that targets Lebanon's dignity, sovereignty, and security of citizens."

Ammar went on to say the resistance is responding with "utmost wisdom, patience, and will confront the enemy at the appropriate time."

"Unfortunately, the enemy is emboldened to commit its aggression by voices within Lebanon that have turned themselves into tools that support its aggression," he added.

The Israeli attack on the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital is the latest blatant violation of the ceasefire Israel signed with Hezbollah in November 2024, which was intended to end hostilities that had escalated into full-scale war.

An Israeli strike on the Ain al-Hilweh camp near Sidon in southern Lebanon late Tuesday killed at least 14 people. It wounded several others, including young students, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

The military claimed the attack targeted “a Hamas training compound” used to plan and carry out attacks against the regime -- a claim that has frequently been made without evidence.

Hamas rejected the allegations as “a blatant lie aimed at justifying the massacre,” stating it had “no military installations in the Palestinian camps in Lebanon” and that the targeted site was merely “an open sports field.”

According to Lebanese authorities, Israeli attacks have killed approximately 4,000 people and displaced more than 1.2 million residents across the country since October 2023.

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News Network
December 2,2025

Mangaluru, Dec 2: Mangaluru International Airport responded to a medical emergency late on Monday night. Air India Express flight IX 522, travelling from Riyadh to Thiruvananthapuram, was diverted to Mangaluru Airport after a passenger in his late 30s experienced a medical emergency on board.

The Airport’s Operations Control Centre received an alert regarding the passenger’s health condition. The airport activated its emergency response protocol, mobilising the airport medical team and coordinating with stakeholders including CISF, immigration, and customs. 

Upon landing, airport medical personnel attended to the passenger, assessed his condition, and arranged to shift him to a local tertiary-care hospital for further treatment. The passenger’s relatives accompanied the passenger, who incidentally received necessary medical care on board, which helped stabilise the situation.

Following the handling of the emergency, the flight departed for Thiruvananthapuram at 2:05 am on Tuesday.

"We appreciate the cooperation of all parties involved, and this incident reaffirms our ongoing commitment to prioritising passenger safety and readiness to respond to unforeseen emergencies with professionalism and care," the Airport spokesperson said. 

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