Indian economy not recovering, may contract 25% in current fiscal: Economist Arun Kumar

News Network
January 17, 2021

The Indian economy is not recovering as fast as the government claims and the country's economy may contract 25 per cent in the current financial year, noted economist Arun Kumar said on Sunday.

Kumar further said that due to a big decline in the GDP during the current financial year, the budget estimates have gone completely out of gear and, therefore, there is a need to correct the Budget.

"India's economic growth is not recovering as fast as the government is showing because the unorganised sector has not started recovering and some major components of the services sector have not recovered.

"My analysis shows that the rate of growth will be (-)25 per cent in the current financial year because during lockdown (during April-May), only essential production was taking place and even in agriculture, there was no growth," he told PTI in an interview.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the Indian economy to contract 7.5 per cent in the current financial year, while the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates a contraction of 7.7 per cent.

Also, according to the NSO, the Indian economy contracted by 23.9 per cent during the April-June 2020 quarter and recovered faster than expected in the July-September 2020 quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent.

Kumar, a former professor of economics at JNU, said the government's own document that provided April-June and July-September quarters GDP (gross domestic product) figures said there will be a revision in the data later on.

He predicted that India's fiscal deficit will be higher than it was last year and the state's fiscal deficit will also be much higher.

"Disinvestment revenue will also be short. Tax and non-tax revenues will be short," Kumar said.

He said India's economic recovery will depend on several factors including how quickly vaccination can be done, how quickly people can go back to their work.

"We are not going back to the 2019 level of output in 2021. Maybe in 2022, after the vaccination is done, we will recover back to the 2019 level of output in 2022," Kumar said.

He added that the growth rate in the coming years will be good because of low base effect, but the output will be less than 2019.

Asked whether the government should relax the fiscal deficit target in the upcoming Budget, Kumar said, "It has been argued since July that the government should allow the fiscal deficit to rise and spend more and give money to the unorganised sector and in rural areas."

On India recently imposing fresh restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from countries that share land border with India, he said, "It is a knee-jerk reaction". If you look at the past three-four years, all the start-ups had big investments from China, Kumar added.

Stressing that like China, India should also invest more on research and development, Kumar said, "We are now in a bad situation where we have to do knee-jerk reactions like raising tariffs, withdrawing from the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), and having new FDI rules, to stop investment from China."

He pointed out that when investments in India are lacking, restricting investments from outside is going to put us in further trouble.
 

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News Network
May 6,2024

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Several women, believed to be victims of Prajwal Revanna, have left their homes in Karnataka's Hassan district over the last ten days, according to media reports.

These departures reportedly come amid fear and stigma after their identities became public due to the circulating video clips showing the women who were allegedly sexually assaulted by Prajwal Revanna.

"The entire district is in H D Revanna’s control. You speak ill about them and chances are high that it will reach them, because the family and the party have a large following," a shopkeeper in Hagare - 20 km from Hassan – was quoted as saying by the news paper. 

Hassan is the bastion of the JD(S) supremo Deve Gowda, and Prajwal, his grandson, is the sitting MP.

The family of the woman whose complaint was the basis of the first FIR against Prajwal has now left their home, the publication reported, citing a neighbour who said, "The woman worked at Revanna’s house as a house help. Some of her videos started to circulate and then, her house was seen locked. We don’t know when she left."

Notably, a former Zilla Panchayat member has also filed a rape case against Prajwal, and in that village many women who worked for the party formerly are now incommunicado, a JD(S) leader told the publication. "We noticed many of the party women deleting their photos with Prajwal on social media. In some instances, men are questioning their wives about their association with the MP. It is shattering the lives of many women in the district," he said.

The local leader added that the former Zilla Panchayat member was there on April 24, but no one had seen the family since the videos came out.

The case is currently being probed by an SIT team and when they reached the Revanna residence, party workers were reportedly heard talking about the women. "I know this woman, she lived close to our residence and was very active in JD(S) activities. Her house is locked… she has small children," one said, as per IE.

Another shopkeeper added, "It was really wrong to reveal the faces of the women. I know some of them, and they have gone into hiding. We don’t know whether they can return."

He noted that it is impossible to survive in Hassan while fighting a case against the Revanna family.

While Prajwal's father, H D Revanna is in SIT custody, a Blue Corner notice has been issued against the sitting MP.

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News Network
May 17,2024

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Hubballi, May 17: Karnataka Police have arrested the killer, Vishwa, also known as Girish, in the sensational Anjali Ambigera murder case, police said on Friday.

Preliminary investigations reveal that Vishwa was a habitual thief who exploited innocent young women. The accused is also a drunkard and was caught while attempting to commit theft. He was also part of a gang which stole bikes.

The accused targeted gullible young women, enacting a drama of love and playing the emotional card to forcefully extort gold, silver, and cash from them. When Anjali did not agree to any of his attempts to rob her and outrightly rejected his offer to go with him to Mysuru city, he brutally killed her.

The police had formed two teams to hunt down the killer. One of the teams was searching in the south Karnataka region, and another team, which launched a hunt in Davanagere, nabbed him. The accused was arrested by the police on Thursday.

The police could not catch him sooner as the killer did not carry a mobile phone and did not use his phone for 15 days, before murdering Anjali. The jurisdictional Bendigeri Police were aware of the killer's history, but even after the complaint by the girl’s family, they showed "utter negligence".

The 24-year-old Vishwa entered Anjali Ambigera's (20) residence at 5.30 A.M. on Wednesday and stabbed the young woman multiple times before she could react. Vishwa dragged Anjali Ambigera all over the house, kicking and stabbing her. Later, he pushed her into the kitchen where he stabbed her repeatedly.

Despite efforts by Anjali’s grandmother and two sisters to stop the attacker, he killed her and managed to flee. The incident occurred in the Veerapura Oni area within the jurisdiction of the Bendigeri Police Station.

Vishwa had been blackmailing Anjali and pressurising her to accompany him to Mysuru without informing her parents. The incident which took place close on the heels of MCA student Neha Hiremath’s brutal murder by the jilted lover has raised concern over the safety of women all across the state.

The BJP had demanded the resignation of Home Minister G. Parameshwara while the Congress leaders have also demanded that the Hubballi-Dharwad Police Commissioner Renuka Sukumar should be transferred for failing to sensitise the police force regarding issues of women’s safety.

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News Network
May 12,2024

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In an intriguing turn of events, authorities have levied a fine against an actress for breaching traffic regulations depicted within a television serial.

In the 14th episode of the popular serial ‘Seetha Raama’ a Kannada language drama series airing on Zee Kannada, a scene featuring two individuals riding a scooter caught the attention of viewers. While the rider adhered to safety protocols by wearing a helmet, the actress on the pillion did not.

Jayaprakash Yekkur, a vigilant resident of Mangaluru, took swift notice of this discrepancy and promptly lodged a complaint with the Mangaluru City Police Commissioner. Yekkur underscored the concern that such portrayals of traffic violations by actors and actresses could potentially convey misleading messages to viewers, particularly those who are impressionable. He urged authorities to take decisive legal action against the actress, the serial’s director, and the broadcasting channel.

In response to Yekkur’s complaint, the Commissioner of Police forwarded the matter to the Mangaluru Traffic Police station. Subsequently, notices were issued to the owner of the two-wheeler featured in the scene and the serial’s director. Upon investigation, it was revealed that the scene had been filmed in Nandini Layout, Bengaluru, and was referred to the Rajajinagar police station for further scrutiny.

On May 10, after thorough inquiries, the Rajajinagar police station imposed a fine of Rs 500 on both the actress and the owner of the two-wheeler. Furthermore, the production manager of the serial committed to adhering strictly to traffic regulations in future episodes.

Expressing his contentment with the resolution, Jayaprakash Yekkur commented that the prompt response from the police, coupled with the imposition of a fine, serves as a valuable lesson and contributes significantly to enhancing public awareness.

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