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The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which entered the Bihar election as the principal challenger to the ruling NDA, is heading toward one of its poorest performances in two decades. Despite contesting 143 seats, the Tejashwi Yadav–led party is currently ahead in only 32 constituencies — a dramatic fall from its position as the single largest party in the 2020 Assembly polls.

If the trends continue, this will mark RJD’s second-worst performance in a Bihar Assembly election. In 2005, when Nitish Kumar first swept to power riding a strong NDA wave, the RJD slipped to 55 seats amid heavy anti-incumbency against the Rabri Devi government. The party’s worst performance came in 2010, when it managed to win only 22 seats.

Two decades later, after multiple realignments and breakups, the Nitish Kumar–BJP combine appears to be cruising toward another decisive victory. The NDA is currently leading in 191 of the 243 Assembly seats, leaving the Mahagathbandhan far behind.

If these trends hold, Tejashwi Yadav could find himself presiding over the steepest electoral setback in the party’s history. The 36-year-old, who inherited the RJD’s leadership mantle from his father and party founder Lalu Prasad Yadav, had hoped for a strong resurgence this time.

Interestingly, despite trailing in many constituencies, the RJD continues to have the highest vote share among all contesting parties — indicating strong pockets of support but a failure to convert close contests into victories.

Several rounds of counting still remain, and the final picture may shift. However, as it stands, the RJD is staring at a significant rout, while the NDA looks firmly on course to form the next government in Bihar.

Srinagar, Nov13: Security agencies have intensely focused their counter-terrorism operations back on Kashmir following the Red Fort car blast in Delhi and the massive explosives haul in Faridabad, which exposed a sophisticated "doctor-led terror module." The joint operation—involving the J&K Police, NIA, and intelligence agencies—is now aggressively pursuing the wider support network behind the arrests of highly educated professionals.

The core of the new strategy is to dismantle the 'white-collar terror ecosystem' by moving beyond physical arms and tracking the digital and financial connections of the accused.

The Widening Net in Kashmir

Multiple raids across Pulwama, Kulgam, Shopian, and Srinagar over the past three days have led to the detention and questioning of at least a dozen individuals. Those picked up include relatives and digital associates of the arrested doctors. Cyber units are forensically scanning seized mobile phones, laptops, and encrypted communication to map the network's digital footprint, which sources indicate involves platforms like Telegram and ProtonMail and covert fund transfers.

The crackdown follows the arrests of several medical professionals from Al-Falah University in Faridabad and the seizure of a huge cache of over 2,900 kg of explosives, firearms, and bomb-making material.

Key Accused: The Doctors of Doom

The investigation has centered on four doctors from the Kashmir Valley, who allegedly used their professional credentials as a cover:

•    Dr. Muzammil Ahmad Ganaie (Alleged Mastermind): A 35-year-old physician from Pulwama who taught MBBS students at Al-Falah University. Officials describe him as the principal planner. A raid on his Faridabad residence recovered 358 kg of suspected ammonium nitrate, an assault rifle, and detonators. His sister, Dr. Asmat Shakeel, is currently detained for questioning regarding financial and communication assistance.

•    Dr. Adeel Ahmad Rather (Logistics Handler): From Kulgam, this doctor was arrested in Saharanpur, UP, and is accused of coordinating the transport and concealment of explosives. Police previously recovered an AK-47 rifle from his locker at Government Medical College, Anantnag.

•    Dr. Umar Un Nabi (Suspected Executioner): The doctor from Pulwama is believed to have been driving the i20 car that exploded near Red Fort. DNA evidence confirmed his presence at the centre of the attack.

•    Dr. Nisar-ul-Hassan (Missing Link): A well-known Srinagar physician dismissed from government service in 2023 for alleged anti-state activities. He later joined Al-Falah University but has gone missing since the Delhi blast, deepening suspicions of his involvement.

The shift in focus—as one senior official put it—is a "digital mapping of the network that enabled professional radicalisation." Authorities stress that they are dealing with a sophisticated web of professionals who leveraged their education and social credibility for a terrorist agenda, signalling that the investigation into this "doctor-terror module" is far from complete. 

The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal United (and their smaller allies, including Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party) will record a comfortable win in the Bihar election, picking up between 133 and 167 seats, data from multiple exit polls predicted Tuesday evening.

JVC's Polls:     NDA 135 - 150    MGB    88 - 103    OTH 3 - 6
Matrize:            NDA 147 - 167    MGB    70 - 90    OTH 2 - 10
People's Insight:    NDA 133 - 148    MGB    87 - 102    OTH 3 - 6
People's Pulse:    NDA 133 - 159    MGB    75 - 101    OTH 2 - 13
Dainik Bhaskar:    NDA 145 - 160    MGB    73 - 91    OTH 5 – 10

The Rashtriya Janata Dal-led opposition alliance, which includes the Congress, will slip to a chastening defeat, exit poll data indicated. The Mahagathbandhan is only expected to win between 70 and 102 seats, a far cry from the 75 the RJD won on its own five years ago.

And, crucially, poll strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, seen as a dark horse that could play the role of kingmaker in a politically volatile state, is likely to crash on its electoral debut.

Kishor's party is not expected to win more than five seats, at best.

A health warning: exit poll data is unpredictable and may not reflect final results.

Voting for the second and final phase – for 122 of the state's 243 seats – concluded hours earlier. The first phase was held on November 6 and votes will be counted on November 14.

The majority mark is 122.