COVID-19 school closure may cost over USD 400 billion to India, cause learning losses: World Bank

Agencies
October 12, 2020

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New Delhi, Oct 12: The prolonged closure of schools due to the COVID-19 pandemic in India may cause a loss of over USD 400 billion in the country's future earnings, besides substantial learning losses, according to a World Bank report.

South Asia region stands to lose USD 622 billion from the school closures in the present scenario or up to USD 880 billion in a more pessimistic scenario, it said, adding while the regional loss is largely driven by India, all countries will lose substantial shares of their GDP.

The report titled "Beaten or Broken? Informality and COVID-19 in South Asia" claims that South Asia is set to plunge into its worst-ever recession in 2020 as the devastating impacts of COVID-19 on the region's economies linger.

"Temporary school closures in all South Asian countries have had major implications for students. They have kept 391 million students out of school in primary and secondary education, further complicating efforts to resolve the learning crisis, said the report.

While most governments have made enormous efforts to mitigate the impact of school closures, it has been difficult to engage children through remote learning initiatives," it said.

The report also noted that the pandemic may cause up to 5.5 million students to drop out from the education system and cause substantial learning losses, which will have a lifetime impact on the productivity of a generation of students.

"Most school systems closed in March, and -- though there are important exceptions -- countries are starting to reopen or have already opened their schools. Children have been out of school for approximately 5 months. Being out of school for that long means that children not only stop learning new things, they also forget some of what they have learned.

"The projected learning loss for the region is 0.5 years of learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS), falling from 6.5 LAYS to 6.0 LAYS, an enormous setback from recent advances in schooling," it said.

The Learning Adjusted Year of Schooling' (LAYS) concept, introduced by the World Bank, seeks to combine access and learning outcomes into a single measure.

It combines quantity (years of schooling) and quality (how much kids know at a given grade level) into a single summary measure of human capital in a society.

The report has projected that based on country data on household labor incomes, the average child in South Asia may lose USD 4,400 in lifetime earnings once having entered the labour market, equivalent to 5 percent of total earnings.

"These projections are based on what we currently know about returns to schooling, using the reduced level of learning caused by the crisis. Summing these numbers for all children in South Asia, the region stands to lose USD 622 billion from the school closures in the present scenario, or up to USD 880 billion in a more pessimistic scenario.

"While the regional loss is largely driven by India, all countries will lose substantial shares of their GDP. For reference, note that South Asian governments spend only USD 400 billion per year in total on primary and secondary education. The total loss in economic output from the current closures is hence substantially higher than what countries currently spend on education," it said.

The novel corona virus has infected over 3.7 crore people across the globe claiming over 10.5 lakh lives.

India's COVID-19 caseload stands at 71.2 lakhs while the death toll is 1.09 lakh as on Monday.

Universities and schools across the country were ordered shut on March 16 to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. On March 25, the Centre announced a nationwide lockdown. While several restrictions have been eased gradually in different phases of the 'unlock' since June 8, educational institutions continue to remain closed.

However, according to the latest unlock guidelines, schools, colleges and other educational institutions outside COVID-19 containment zones can reopen after October 15. The final decision on reopening the institutions has been left with the states and Union territories.

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News Network
March 27,2024

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The Enforcement Directorate has filed a money laundering case against Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's daughter Veena Vijayan, her IT company and some others to probe a case of alleged illegal payments made by a private mineral firm to her and the company, official sources said Wednesday.

The agency has registered a case under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) and is expected to summon the people involved, the sources said.

The ED case has been booked after taking cognisance of a complaint filed by the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO), an investigative arm of the Union corporate affairs ministry, they said.

The case stems from an Income Tax Department investigation that alleged that a private company called Cochin Minerals And Rutile Ltd (CMRL), made an illegal payment of Rs 1.72 crore to Veena's company-- Exalogic Solutions-- during 2018 to 2019, even though the IT firm had not provided any service to the company.

The Karnataka High Court had last month dismissed a plea filed by Exalogic Solutions against the probe initiated by the SFIO.

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News Network
March 15,2024

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Bengaluru: Prime Minister Narendra Modi would formally kickstart the BJP's Lok Sabha election campaign in Karnataka on Saturday from Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge's home turf— Kalaburagi.

He is scheduled to address a mega public meeting at the district headquarters town's N V Ground at 2 pm.

Kharge, who had represented Kalaburagi (Gulbarga Lok Sabha segment) twice in the past, lost to BJP's Umesh Jadhav by a margin of 95,452 votes in the 2019 general elections here— the octogenarian leader's first electoral loss in his political life spanning several decades.

BJP has once again fielded Jadhav from the segment.

Speculations are rife that the Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, who has the role of managing the party nationally and coordinating with the opposition I.N.D.I.A bloc, may not contest the coming polls and, instead, the Congress is likely to field his son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani, a businessman, who also manages educational institutions.

On March 18, Modi will be in Shivamogga, the home district of veteran BJP leader B S Yediyurappa, and is scheduled to address a huge public meeting at 2 pm.

Yediyurappa's son B Y Raghavendra is the sitting MP from Shivamogga and has been re-nominated by the party. Yediyurappa's other son B Y Vijayendra, who represents Shikaripura assembly constituency in the district, is the state BJP President.

BJP has announced candidates for 20 seats in the State, which has a total of 28 constituencies.

After being ousted from power by the Congress in the 2023 Assembly polls, the BJP now is making a strong bid to regain the lost ground in Karnataka.

The BJP won 25 out of total 28 seats in the previous elections, and had ensured the win of a party supported independent candidate in Mandya. The then ruling Congress-JD(S) alliance had come a cropper winning just one seat each.

It is a role reversal of sorts for JD(S), which joined the NDA last September and has forged an electoral alliance with the BJP. The regional party is expected to contest in three seats— Mandya, Hassan and Kolar.

Sharing details of Modi's visit, state BJP General Secretary Sunil Kumar on Wednesday said BJP National President J P Nadda, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Yogi Adityanath along with other leaders will visit different Lok Sabha constituencies for campaigning in the coming days.

Speaking about the party's poll preparations, he said: "We have divided 28 Lok Sabha constituencies into eight clusters for Lok Sabha elections. Keeping in view the local political and geographical background, programmes and strategies are being worked out in those eight clusters."

Several senior leaders including Shah and Nadda have already visited one of these clusters, Kumar said, adding, "Workers' convention, well-wishers' contacts have been made and election preparations are on in all these eight clusters. In the second phase, large public meetings will be held."

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News Network
March 22,2024

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New Delhi, Mar 22: The Aam Aadmi Party has made it clear that Arvind Kejriwal will remain the Delhi Chief Minister despite his arrest in the liquor policy case. While no law would stop the AAP leader from running the state from prison, the jail guidelines would make it extremely difficult.

Kejriwal was arrested yesterday by the Directorate of Enforcement (ED), following his avoidance of nine summons issued by the investigative agency in relation to the Delhi liquor policy case. 

The decision to apprehend Kejriwal transpired shortly after the High Court's denial of protection from arrest. With this development, Kejriwal becomes the second opposition Chief Minister to face arrest by the ED within a span of fewer than two months, following Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren's similar fate in January 2024 due to allegations in a graft case. Subsequently, Hemant Soren was replaced by his party colleague, Champai Soren.

Delhi government minister Atishi declared shortly after Kejriwal's arrest that he would not step down from his position. However, the legality and feasibility of a detained Chief Minister continuing to fulfill official duties warrant examination.

A former law officer of Delhi's Tihar Jail says that an inmate can only hold two meetings in a week, which would make it difficult for Mr Kejriwal to carry out his responsibilities as Chief Minister.

Can he run government from prison?

While theoretically plausible, governing from detention presents logistical challenges. However, there exists no explicit prohibition against a Chief Minister conducting official responsibilities while under arrest. Disqualification only occurs upon conviction.

The Representation of the People Act, 1951 outlines disqualification provisions for specific offenses, necessitating a conviction for those holding office.

Will centre impose president’s rule?

Constitution expert SK Sharma told TOI that there exists no specific legal provision mandating the automatic resignation of a state's Chief Minister upon arrest. He cited the example of former Bihar CM Lalu Prasad Yadav, who appointed his wife Rabri Devi as CM during his arrest. "Former Bihar CM Lalu Prasad Yadav made his wife Rabri Devi the CM of the state when he was arrested. More recently, Hemant Soren in Jharkhand also resigned. Calling cabinet meetings in the jail or review meetings with officials in his cell does not seem practical," said Sharma.

Sharma further indicated that if AAP persisted in retaining Kejriwal as CM, it could lead to a deadlock, potentially prompting the Centre to impose President's rule in Delhi.

What may happen next?

Despite AAP's unwavering stance on Kejriwal's continuation in office, internal sources say that potential successors, including Atishi and health minister Saurabh Bharadwaj. Atishi, known for her extensive portfolio and close ties to Kejriwal, alongside Bharadwaj, a prominent minister with significant responsibilities, emerged as likely contenders. Additionally, sources speculated about the surprise candidacy of Kejriwal's wife, Sunita, given her background as a revenue services officer and active involvement in party affairs.

However, finding a successor of comparable stature to Kejriwal, a national convener of the party and three-time Delhi CM, presents a formidable challenge for AAP.

Role of Delhi's Lieutenant Governor

Delhi's unique power structure, featuring an elected Chief Minister and a Lieutenant Governor appointed by the Centre, presents a complex scenario. Kejriwal's ability to continue as CM hinges on legal relief, failing which the Lieutenant Governor can seek Presidential intervention, potentially leading to the imposition of President's rule.

Recent cases demonstrate how denial of bail can compel resignation, highlighting the precarious position of arrested officials.

In light of these developments, the Lieutenant Governor could invoke 'failure of constitutional machinery' to justify President's rule, thereby bringing the national capital under direct Union government control until the end of the current Assembly's tenure in February 2025.

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