Economy in crisis: India’s growth may slow down further to 5.7% in Q1, says report

Agencies
August 21, 2019

Mumbai, Aug 21: India's economic growth is likely to slow down further to 5.7 per cent in the April-June quarter of this year due to low consumption, weak investments and an under-performing service sector, said a Nomura report. The economy, however, is expected to see some recovery in the July-September quarter, the report added.

It attributed the slowdown to the ongoing crisis in shadow banks, which were funding the consumption drive before liquidity crisis hit them hard last September, as well as weakening global growth and the resultant demand slump.

"The Indian economy is likely to slow down further to 5.7 per cent in April-June from a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in January-March," Nomura analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in their client note

"High-frequency indicators continue to show familiar pain points -- a deep contraction in consumption, weak investment, a slowing external sector and an under-performing services sector," they said.

"The growth momentum is likely to pick up in the September quarter to 6.4 per cent and go further to 6.7 per cent in the three months after that," said Nomura citing data from its proprietary tools. "We will watch coming data prints to see whether they confirm or negate the sustainability of the turnaround in the growth cycle," it added.

But the brokerage firm also said the industry and investment indicators are relatively stable. "We believe the GDP is yet to bottom out, and expect it to moderate to 5.7 per cent in the June quarter, down from 5.8 per cent in the March quarter," the note said.

The report added that some indicators were showing early signs of bottoming out. The July data shows improvement in 53 per cent of the indicators as compared to 31 per cent in June, the report noted.

Nomura's Composite Leading Index (CLI) for Q3 (July-September) has ticked marginally higher to 99.9 from 99.8 in Q2, led by higher industrial production growth, an improvement in visitor arrivals growth, equity markets and lower policy rates.

"While the concurrent state of the economy remains a concern, nascent signs of green shoots and positive performance of leading indicators provide some signs that a recovery may be slowly materialising," said the Nomura report.

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News Network
April 26,2024

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An Indian-origin woman studying at the prestigious Princeton University in the US is among two students arrested over pro-Palestine protests on the campus, reports student and alumni newspapers.

Tamil Nadu-born Achinthya Sivalingan and Hassan Sayed were arrested after the protesters set up tents for an encampment in a university courtyard early Thursday morning, according to the Princeton Alumni Weekly (PAW).

The two graduate students were arrested on charge of trespassing and have been "immediately barred from the campus", said Jennifer Morrill, a university spokesperson, adding that setting up tents on the campus violated university policy.

However, they have not been evicted and will be allowed into their housing, another varsity spokesperson Michael Hotchkiss confirmed to the Daily Princetonian.

Ms Sivalingam is a student of Masters in Public Affairs in International Development at Princeton while Mr Sayed is a PhD candidate there.

In a statement, Morill said the students were given "repeated warnings from the Department of Public Safety to cease the activity and leave the area" and they now face disciplinary action. After their arrest, the other protesters "voluntarily" packed away their camping gear, she added.

Hotchkiss said the university did not evict anyone on Thursday and that the university allows students barred from campus to stay in their university-owned housing.

The undergraduate students were warned against occupation and encampment exercises in an email Wednesday, according to the Daily Princetonian.

Princeton students, faculty and community members, and even outsiders were part of the demonstration, the PAW cited organizers of the protest as saying. Large, white tents were set up nearby for upcoming reunions and other events.

A student who chose to be identified only as Urvi termed the arrests as "violent", which included the students being zip-tied around their wrists. The university, however, contested this and said the officers did not use any force and the arrests were made without any resistance.

Pro-Palestine protests have rocked the top US universities as thousands of students have hit their campuses to demonstrate against the Gaza deaths due to Israel’s inhuman military operation. 

The protests, which began at Columbia University in New York, have to colleges across the country and saw hundreds of students confronting cops and raising pro-Palestine slogans. The protesters have been calling on their universities to divest from companies that profit from the Gaza war and advocate an immediate ceasefire.

Who is Achinthya Sivalingan?

1. Achinthya Sivalingan was born in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu and was raised in Columbus, Ohio.

2. She is pursuing a Master of Public Affairs (MPA) degree in International Development at Princeton University. Before that, Ms Sivalingan studied world politics and economics at Ohio State University and was also an Intern at Harvard Law School. 

3. Ms Sivalingan has significant experience in policy issues, having worked with civil society organisations, the legal system, politics, movement building, and private philanthropy. Her previous roles include supporting policy and advocacy work for climate adaptation, agricultural development, and nutrition portfolios at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. 

4. Ms Sivalingan has worked on a congressional campaign in Ohio's third district and also contributed to land rights and policy initiatives in India at the Centre for Policy Research. 

5. She has been banned from Princeton over pro-Palestine protests and is now facing disciplinary action. 

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News Network
April 16,2024

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New Delhi:  Twenty-nine Maoists, including a senior rebel leader - Shankar Rao, who had a bounty of ₹ 25 lakh on his head - were killed by security forces during an encounter in Chhattisgarh's Kanker district on Tuesday afternoon. A huge quantity of weapons, including Ak-47 and INSAS rifles, were recovered. 

Three security personnel were injured in the gunfight, which took place in forests near the village of Binagunda after a joint team of District Reserve Guard and Border Security Force were attacked.

Two of the three injured are from the BSF. Their condition is stable but the third - from the DRG - is in critical care. All three received treatment at a local hospital and are to be shifted to a larger facility.

Sources said the fighting began at around 2 PM, when a joint DRG-BSF team was conducting an anti-Maoist operation. The DRG was set up in in 2008 to combat Maoist activities in the state, and the Border Security Force has been deployed extensively in the area to for counter-insurgency ops.

There was another encounter in the district last month, in which two people - a Maoist and a cop - were killed, and security forces recovered a gun, some explosives, and other incriminating materials.

Personnel from the DRG and Bastar Fighters, both units of the state police force, with the Border Security Force, were involved in that operation, officials told news agency PTI. The patrolling team was cordoning off a forested area when fired on indiscriminately, leading to the gun battle.

In November last year, while the state was voting in the first phase of an Assembly election, a gunfight broke out between security forces and Maoist rebels in the same district.

An Ak-47 rifle was recovered from the encounter site.

On the same day, while polling was taking place, Maoists fired at DRG personnel deployed near a polling station in Banda in Dantewada district.

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News Network
April 15,2024

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

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