Modi’s ‘Stay at Home’ Call May Deepen India’s Economic Slowdown

News Network
March 21, 2020

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

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News Network
May 7,2024

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Bengaluru: JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy has claimed that 25,000 pen drives with videos of women being sexually abused allegedly by his nephew, Lok Sabha election candidate Prajwal Revanna, were distributed before polls, and accused Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D K Shivakumar of a conspiracy.

The former chief minister also sought to discredit the Special Investigation Team (SIT) formed by the Congress government on April 28 to probe the charges against Prajwal of sexually abusing several women after videos allegedly involving him started making the rounds on social media.

"It is not a Special Investigation Team but 'Siddaramaiah Investigation Team' and 'Shivakumar Investigation Team'," the JD(S) second-in-command, who is the son of party supremo and former prime minister H D Deve Gowda, said.

MLA H D Revanna and his son and Hassan MP Prajwal have been booked for allegedly molesting their cook. In another case, Revanna has been booked and arrested for allegedly kidnapping a woman who was allegedly sexually assaulted by Prajwal. A case of rape has also been registered against Prajwal.

Addressing a press conference here, Kumaraswamy said the pen drives were circulated by police officers who were "threatened to do it".

“It (pen drive carrying videos) was released in Bengaluru Rural constituency (where the Congress candidate in the Lok Sabha elections is D K Suresh, who is the brother of Shivakumar). This was an April 21 development. On April 22, Poornachandra, our polling agent, gave a complaint to the District Deputy Commissioner, who is the Returning Officer,” the JD(S) leader said.

“Poornachandra received a message at 8 pm on April 21 asking people to 'follow a WhatsApp channel to see Prajwal Revanna’s sleaze video'. There was a message on this WhatsApp channel, 'Countdown for the release of Prajwal’s sleaze videos'," Kumaraswamy further said.

According to Kumaraswamy, one Naveen Gowda had sent the message about the "countdown".

In his complaint to the Deputy Commissioner and the Superintendent of Police of Hassan district, Poornachandra has named five people including Naveen Gowda, Karthik Gowda (Revanna’s driver), Chethan and Puttaraju alias Putty, he said.

It has been more than a fortnight since the complaint made on April 21 but no action has been taken against these five people, Kumaraswamy said and demanded that they should first be arrested for "mortgaging the modesty" of women in the videos.

Kumaraswamy alleged that 25,000 pen drives were distributed in the entire state, and cited a report in a regional daily to support his claim.

“My question here is why no action was taken. If someone posts something on social media, immediately houses are searched and the person is made to sit in the police station. Why no action was taken against these five people despite a complaint?” he asked.

"Chief Minister Siddaramaiah had confidently said that all the three JD(S) candidates in the Lok Sabha elections will be defeated," Kumaraswamy said, adding, "It raises doubts about the involvement of many people."

On April 25, Karnataka State Commission for Women Chairperson Nagalakshmi Chowdhary wrote to Siddaramaiah demanding an SIT probe into the tapes where Prajwal is allegedly seen sexually abusing several women. The same night, the CM gave his nod and ordered the formation of a SIT, Kumaraswamy said.

“In that letter, Nagalakshmi Chowdhary did not mention the name of Prajwal or Revanna but the chief minister called it ‘Prajwal Revanna’s explicit videos’ in his post on X when he announced the formation of SIT. This shows how the conspiracy was hatched,” the JD(S) leader claimed.

He also alleged that the first complaint "framing" his brother H D Revanna and nephew Prajwal was typed on a computer in Bengaluru and was sent to Holenarasipura, which is represented in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly by Revanna, on April 28.

“It’s not a Special Investigation Team but there are two teams within it – one is ‘Siddaramaiah Investigation Team’ and another one is ‘Shivakumar Investigation Team’,” he charged.

He said the ‘convenor’ of the 'pen drive story', Karthik Gowda should be traced first and brought before the people.

“Going through the conspiracies, one can doubt the intention behind the investigation because more than protecting the women victims, you are limiting the scope of the probe only to defame people,” Kumaraswamy further alleged.

He underlined that he was not trying to protect anyone. “I have said that in this case I will not protect anyone doing wrong. Stringent punishment should be given to the person involved in this crime as per the law of land."

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News Network
May 17,2024

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Hubballi, May 17: Karnataka Police have arrested the killer, Vishwa, also known as Girish, in the sensational Anjali Ambigera murder case, police said on Friday.

Preliminary investigations reveal that Vishwa was a habitual thief who exploited innocent young women. The accused is also a drunkard and was caught while attempting to commit theft. He was also part of a gang which stole bikes.

The accused targeted gullible young women, enacting a drama of love and playing the emotional card to forcefully extort gold, silver, and cash from them. When Anjali did not agree to any of his attempts to rob her and outrightly rejected his offer to go with him to Mysuru city, he brutally killed her.

The police had formed two teams to hunt down the killer. One of the teams was searching in the south Karnataka region, and another team, which launched a hunt in Davanagere, nabbed him. The accused was arrested by the police on Thursday.

The police could not catch him sooner as the killer did not carry a mobile phone and did not use his phone for 15 days, before murdering Anjali. The jurisdictional Bendigeri Police were aware of the killer's history, but even after the complaint by the girl’s family, they showed "utter negligence".

The 24-year-old Vishwa entered Anjali Ambigera's (20) residence at 5.30 A.M. on Wednesday and stabbed the young woman multiple times before she could react. Vishwa dragged Anjali Ambigera all over the house, kicking and stabbing her. Later, he pushed her into the kitchen where he stabbed her repeatedly.

Despite efforts by Anjali’s grandmother and two sisters to stop the attacker, he killed her and managed to flee. The incident occurred in the Veerapura Oni area within the jurisdiction of the Bendigeri Police Station.

Vishwa had been blackmailing Anjali and pressurising her to accompany him to Mysuru without informing her parents. The incident which took place close on the heels of MCA student Neha Hiremath’s brutal murder by the jilted lover has raised concern over the safety of women all across the state.

The BJP had demanded the resignation of Home Minister G. Parameshwara while the Congress leaders have also demanded that the Hubballi-Dharwad Police Commissioner Renuka Sukumar should be transferred for failing to sensitise the police force regarding issues of women’s safety.

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News Network
May 7,2024

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Udupi: Udupi became the second city on the Karnataka coast after Mangaluru to launch water rationing, a senior official said on Tuesday.

Commissioner of the Udupi City Municipal Corporation Rayappa said that the rationing system will come into force from Wednesday and will continue till the water in the reservoir reaches comfortable levels.

The dam built across the Swarna river at a place called Baje, which is the only source of water for Udupi city, recorded 3.25 meters of water as against the top level of 6.30 meters.

The decision of water rationing will be reviewed periodically until the reservoir regains its fullest levels, the official said.

The Mangaluru City Corporation resorted to water rationing on Saturday following declining water levels in the reservoir built across the Nethravati river at Thumbe. 

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