PM’s Economic Advisory Council junks Arvind Subramanian paper, plans rebuttal

Agencies
June 13, 2019

New Delhi, Jun 13: A day after Arvind Subramanian's sensational disclosure that India's GDP has been overestimated by an astronomical 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17 which immediately attracted a strong reaction from the government, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council came to the Centre's defence, saying that proper methodology was followed and that experts were consulted in calculating the country's overall economic growth estimates.

The council also termed parts of former chief economic advisor's report "most unusual exercise" that attempted to "sensationalize" what should have been a proper academic debate.

In a statement put out on Wednesday afternoon, the council, headed by economist Bibek Debroy, said it would come out with a "point-to-point rebuttal" in due course, indicating the seriousness attached by the government to buttress assertions made in Subramanian's research paper.

"It is worth noting that the Base Year of India's income calculations shifted to 2011-12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in National Income Accounting. It was on the basis of these recommendations, started in 2008, that the Government implemented the change from January, 2015," a government statement reflecting council's views said.

"Therefore, it is wrong to suggest that the views of experts have not been taken into account while changing the Base Year or weights or switching from Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) to Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) 21," the statement added.

In his recent research paper published by Harvard University, the former CEA has said there is a possibility of substantial overestimation in the growth figures while stating that the actual GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 was around 4.5% as against 7%.

Subramanian has suggested that India's GDP growth estimate has been overestimated by around 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17, a period that covers the years during both the UPA and the NDA governments.

The adoption of a new GDP series to measure the country's economic growth, months after the government itself slashed previous UPA-era GDP growth rate for 2010-11 from the earlier estimated 10.3% to 8.5%, has fuelled controversy.

"In his paper, Dr. Subramanian has used cross-country regressions to estimate what India's GDP should be. Using cross-country regressions to estimate GDP is a most unusual exercise, as is the suggestion that any country's GDP that is off the regression line must be questioned. The proxy indicators that he used can also be questioned. Nor does this exercise allow for GDP increases on the basis of productivity gains," the council said in the statement.

It added that a country's GDP is in nominal terms and any exercise should be on the basis of nominal figures, not real growth rates.

"The Economic Advisory Council will examine in detail the estimates made in Dr. Arvind Subramanian's paper and come out with a point-to-point rebuttal in due course. At the moment, it is felt that any attempt to sensationalize what should be a proper academic debate is not desirable from the point of view of preserving the independence and quality of India's statistical systems, all of which the former CEA is familiar with," the council said.

It also said that some of the issues that Subramanian is raising now should have been raised while he was working as CEA, "though by his own admission, he has taken time to understand India's growth numbers and is still unsure."

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News Network
April 26,2024

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Bengaluru: Voting was underway on Friday in the first phase of Lok Sabha polls in 14 constituencies in Karnataka. Polling began at 7 am and will end at 6 pm.

A total of 247 candidates -- 226 men and 21 women -- are in the fray for the first phase covering most of the southern and coastal districts, where more than 2.88 crore voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in 30,602 polling stations.

The Congress and BJP are locking horns on the electoral battleground again in less than a year. This election is witnessing a straight fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP-JD(S) combine unlike the Assembly elections in May last year which witnessed a triangular contest among the three parties.

The state has a total of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies. The second phase of polling in the remaining 14 seats is on May 7.

In the first phase, while the Congress is contesting in all 14 seats, BJP has fielded nominees in 11 and its alliance partner JD(S), which joined the National Democratic Alliance in (NDA) in September last year, in three -- Hassan, Mandya and Kolar.

Besides the three, the segments where elections are being held on Friday are: Udupi-Chikmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South and Chikkballapur.

According to Election Commission, 1.4 lakh polling officials are on duty for the first phase. Besides them, 5,000 micro-observers, 50,000 civil police personnel, and 65 companies of Central Paramilitary Force and State Armed Police force of other States have been deployed for security. All the 2,829 polling stations of Bangalore Rural parliamentary constituency are being webcast.

"This is as per the request of our returning officers and observers; so we have given more than double the Central paramilitary force for Bangalore Rural constituency. Seven companies of Central paramilitary forces have been inducted at the constituency since April 22," Karnataka Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Meena has said.

In fact, out of the total 30,602 polling stations in the first phase, 19,701 are webcast, and 1,370 covered via CCTVs, he had added. Chikkaballapur has a maximum number of 29 candidates, followed by 24 in Bangalore Central, and Dakshina Kannada has the least number at nine.

JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy from Mandya, his brother-in-law and noted cardiologist C N Manjunath from Bangalore Rural on a BJP ticket against Deputy CM D K Shivakumar's brother and MP D K Suresh of Congress, and erstwhile Mysuru royal family scion Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar from Mysore, from the BJP, are among the prominent candidates in the fray in the first phase.

Also in the contest are BJP MP Tejasvi Surya from Bangalore South pitted against Minister Ramalinga Reddy's daughter Sowmya Reddy of Congress, and Union Minister Shobha Karandlaje on BJP ticket from Bangalore North against former Indian Institute of Management Bangalore professor M V Rajeev Gowda of Congress.

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April 25,2024

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Bengaluru: The Congress and BJP will lock horns on the electoral battleground again, in less than a year, in Karnataka as the stage is set for voting in the first phase in 14 Lok Sabha seats on Friday.

It's going to be a straight fight between the ruling Congress and the BJP-JD(S) combine unlike the Assembly elections in May last year which witnessed a triangular contest among the three parties.

The state has a total of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies. The second phase of polling in the remaining 14 seats is on May seven.

A total of 247 candidates -- 226 men and 21 women -- are in the fray for the first phase in most of the southern and coastal districts.

More than 2.88 crore voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in 30,602 polling stations where polling will take place between 7 am to 6 pm.

While the Congress is contesting in all 14 seats, BJP has fielded nominees in 11 and its alliance partner JD(S), which joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in three -- Hassan, Mandya and Kolar.

Besides the three, the segments where elections will be held on Friday are: Udupi-Chikmagalur, Dakshina Kannada, Chitradurga, Tumkur, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Bangalore Rural, Bangalore North, Bangalore Central, Bangalore South and Chikkballapur.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress and JD(S), which were in alliance and ruling the state then, had secured just one seat each in these 14 segments. The BJP had won in 11 and ensured the victory of a party supported independent candidate in Mandya.

Having scored a thumping victory in the Assembly elections, the Congress now appears determined to put up a strong show.

Karnataka is the most important state for the BJP in south India as it's only here that it had held power in the past. 'Its alliance partner JD(S) is fighting to remain politically relevant, after the Assembly poll drubbing,' a political analyst said.

The Old Mysore region is the Vokkaliga heartland and parts of it have been the traditional bastion of the JDS.  However, the current elections are a battle for survival for JDS.

According to Karnataka Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Meena, 1.4 lakh polling officials will be on duty for the first phase.

Besides them, 5,000 micro-observers, 50,000 civil police personnel, 65 companies of Central Parliamentary Force and State Armed Police force of other States will also be deployed for security.

All the 2,829 polling stations of Bangalore Rural parliamentary constituency will be webcast, Meena said.

'This is as per the request of our returning officers and observers; so we have given more than double the Central parliamentary force for Bangalore Rural constituency. Seven companies of Central paramilitary forces have been inducted at the constituency since April 22,' he told reporters on Wednesday.

In fact, out of the total 30,602 polling stations in the first phase, 19,701 will be webcast, and 1,370 covered via CCTVs, he said.

Chikkaballapur has a maximum number of 29 candidates, followed by 24 in Bangalore Central, and Dakshina Kannada has the least number - nine.

JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy from Mandya, his brother-in-law and noted cardiologist C N Manjunath from Bangalore Rural on a BJP ticket, erstwhile Mysuru royal family scion Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar from Mysore, also from the BJP, and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar's brother and MP D K Suresh of Congress from Bangalore Rural, are among the prominent candidates in the fray in the first phase.

Also in the fray are BJP MP Tejasvi Surya from Bangalore South against Minister Ramalinga Reddy's daughter Sowmya Reddy of Congress, Union Minister Shobha Karandlaje on BJP ticket from Bangalore North against former IIM Bangalore professor M V Rajeev Gowda of Congress.

The Congress' performance in the elections, especially in the first phase which covers almost all Vokkaliga-dominated districts, is being seen as a big test of sorts for its state unit chief Shivakumar, who has made no secret of his ambition to become chief minister, amid speculations of change in guard mid-way of the Assembly term.

Stakes are also high for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, as victory in particular in his home turf—Mysore and Chamarajanagar—is seen as key for strengthening hands, analysts say.

For the JD(S) and its state chief Kumaraswamy, the task is cut out -- to prove that the regional party is still a force to reckon with, particularly in the Vokkaliga dominated Old Mysuru or South Karnataka region.

Both Shivakumar and Kumaraswamy are Vokkaligas, and are engaged in a fierce turf war to consolidate their clout over the dominant community.

It is also seen as a kind of a 'litmus test' for state BJP president B Y Vijayendra, who has the onerous task of helping the party retain its supremacy in the Lok Sabha elections.

Ensuring a BJP sweep is paramount for the son of veteran leader B S Yediyurappa, to consolidate his position and silence critics who have questioned his selection for the post, overlooking seniors and seasoned hands.

The ruling Congress is mostly banking on the implementation of its populist five guarantee schemes. The BJP and JD(S) seem to be leveraging the 'Modi factor' to the hilt.

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April 23,2024

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Mangaluru, Apr 23: As an outbreak of avian flu has been reported in some districts of neighbouring Kerala, the border areas of Karnataka, including Mangaluru, have been put on high alert, officials of the Karnataka Animal Husbandry department said.

At present, the situation in Kerala is being monitored before any action can be taken, they said.

“Our Kerala counterparts have assured us that the avian flu has been contained within Alappuzha district. However, loading, booking and carrying poultry and poultry products on trains and at railway stations are still under consideration (surveillance), the officials said.

Not only railways but also road transport ferrying chicken loads from Kerala to Mangaluru are under surveillance. Mangaluru, being one of the largest consumers of chicken from Kerala, has halted chicken procurement from Kerala-based suppliers.

Sudhakar Shetty, a market functionary, stated, “The animal husbandry department of Kerala has advised containment of avian flu within a few districts in Kerala. We are closely monitoring the situation.” Despite this, the market has not experienced significant fluctuations in supply yet, as local stocks have been adequate to meet the demand for the next few days.

Demand for chicken could fall for a few days due to a series of temple festivals in coastal areas, where many consumers refrain from consuming meat-based meals until Saturday. Nevertheless, Sunday could witness a change, as consumers may desire hot chicken curry for their Sunday meals, according to the local people.

As officials in the animal husbandry department in Dakshina Kannada have raised awareness in the market about avian flu in the neighbouring state, the question arises whether prices will fall if demand decreases.

“We do not want to contribute to the hysteria surrounding avian flu until our local stock falls below the level of demand,” said Aston D’Souza, a farm owner.

Dakshina Kannada also serves as a good market for suppliers from Shivamogga, Hassan, and Chikkamagaluru.

“In case supplies dwindle due to an unlikely prolonged shutdown of Kerala supplies, we can always purchase from those districts, albeit at a slightly higher cost than Kerala stock,” Shetty said.

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