With India's inflation ticking higher, it may be time for RBI to pause

News Network
July 16, 2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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News Network
April 29,2024

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In yet another setback to the Congress party amid the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, its candidate from Indore Akshay Kanti Bam withdrew his nomination on Monday, April 29, days before voting.

Interestingly, he had reached the Collector's office with BJP MLA Ramesh Mendola to withdraw his nomination. He also reportedly joined BJP. 

Senior BJP leader and state cabinet minister Kailash Vijayvargiya in a post on X said Bam was welcome to join the BJP.

"Congress Lok Sabha candidate from Indore Akshay Kanti Bam is welcome in the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, party national president J P Nadda, Chief Minister Mohan Yadav and state president VD Sharma," he said in the post.

The Congress had fielded Bam against sitting BJP MP Shankar Lalwani from the Indore Lok Sabha seat, where polling will be held on May 13.

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News Network
May 4,2024

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Canadian Police said they have arrested three Indians they suspect were part of the alleged hit squad that had killed Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader involved with the Khalistan movement, which calls for an independent Sikh state.

Nijjar's killing had become the epicentre of a diplomatic row between India and Canada last year after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged the role of "Indian agents" in the murder. India had rejected the charge as "absurd" and "motivated".

The three arrested Indians - Karan Brar, 22, Kamalpreet Singh, 22, Karanpreet Singh, 28 - were living as non-permanent residents in Alberta for three to five years, said Superintendent Mandeep Mooker, who leads the Integrated Homicide Investigation Team. The police have also released their photos.

They have been charged with first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder, showed court documents.

Police said that none of the suspects were known to them earlier and they were investigating their possible ties to the Indian government.

The murder remains "very much under active investigation," Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) Assistant Commissioner David Teboul told a press conference on Friday.

"There are separate and distinct investigations ongoing into these matters, certainly not limited to the involvement of the people arrested today, and these efforts include investigating connections to the government of India," CTV News quoted him as saying.

Nijjar, a Canadian citizen who was wanted in India on various terror charges, was shot dead outside a gurdwara in Surrey on June 18, 2023. Trudeau's charge against India sparked a massive row later that year with both countries expelling diplomats of the other country.

A fresh row erupted earlier this week after separatist slogans on 'Khalistan' were raised at an event addressed by Trudeau, prompting New Delhi to summon their Deputy High Commissioner and lodge a strong protest.

On the sidelines of the event, Trudeau told reporters that Nijjar's killing had created a "problem" that he could not have ignored.

India rejected his comment and said it once again showed Canada provides political space given to separatism, extremism, and violence. "This not only impacts India-Canada relations but also encourages a climate of violence and criminality in Canada to the detriment of its own citizens," foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.

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News Network
April 22,2024

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The BJP has opened its account in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. The party's candidate from Gujarat's Surat constituency, Mukesh Dalal, has won the polls as all his opponents are now out of the fray.

BJP's Mukesh Dalal elected unopposed from the Surat Lok Sabha seat after all other candidates withdrew from the contest, the party's Gujarat unit chief CR Paatil said today. Today was the deadline for withdrawing nominations.

The nominations of the Congress party's Surat candidate and his substitute were rejected by the returning officer over alleged discrepancies in paperwork, a development that the Congress called an attempt at "match-fixing".

"Surat has presented the first lotus to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. I congratulate our candidate for Surat Lok Sabha seat Mukesh Dalal for getting elected unopposed," Mr Paatil posted on the microblogging website X, referring to the BJP's election symbol.

Eight candidates - seven of them independents - and Pyarelal Bharti of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) withdrew their papers.

The nomination papers of the Congress's Surat candidate Nilesh Kumbhani was rejected on Sunday after the district returning officer Saurabh Parghi found discrepancies in the signatures of the proposers.

The nomination form of Suresh Padsala, the Congress's substitute candidate from Surat, was also found invalid.

The returning officer had said the four nomination forms submitted by the two Congress candidates did not appear genuine. The proposers, in their affidavits, had said they had not signed the forms themselves, the returning officer said in the order.

Congress lawyer Babu Mangukiya said the party will approach the high court and the Supreme Court for relief.

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh in a post on X said the Surat developments indicate "democracy is under threat". "Our elections, our democracy, Babasaheb Ambedkar's Constitution - all are under a generational threat. This is the most important election of our lifetime," Mr Ramesh said.

Mr Ramesh alleged the "distress" of micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) owners and the business community in PM Modi's "Anyay Kaal" and their anger have "spooked the BJP so badly that they are attempting to match-fix the Surat Lok Sabha polls, which they have won consistently since the 1984 Lok Sabha elections."

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