With India's inflation ticking higher, it may be time for RBI to pause

News Network
July 16, 2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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News Network
May 10,2024

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The Supreme Court Friday granted interim bail to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal till June 1 in the excise policy case.

The top court, however, stated that it will be passing a detailed order over the matter soon.

On Thursday, the Enforcement Directorate had opposed the move to grant interim bail to Kejriwal saying that “any special concession” to him will “amount to anathema to the rule of law and equality… thereby creating two separate classes in the country viz. ordinary people, who are bound by the rule of law as well as the laws of the country, and politicians who can seek exemption from the laws”.

The ED had arrested Kejriwal on March 21 in the excise policy case.

“The right to campaign for an election is neither a fundamental right nor a constitutional right and not even a legal right,” the ED said, maintaining that to its knowledge, “no political leader has been granted interim bail for campaigning even though he is not the contesting candidate”.

After the ED filed its affidavit, the AAP, in a press release, said, “The legal team of Delhi Chief Minister and AAP National Convenor, Shri Arvind Kejriwal, has raised strong objection to the affidavit filed by the Enforcement Directorate opposing interim bail in the Supreme Court.”

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News Network
May 4,2024

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Canadian Police said they have arrested three Indians they suspect were part of the alleged hit squad that had killed Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader involved with the Khalistan movement, which calls for an independent Sikh state.

Nijjar's killing had become the epicentre of a diplomatic row between India and Canada last year after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged the role of "Indian agents" in the murder. India had rejected the charge as "absurd" and "motivated".

The three arrested Indians - Karan Brar, 22, Kamalpreet Singh, 22, Karanpreet Singh, 28 - were living as non-permanent residents in Alberta for three to five years, said Superintendent Mandeep Mooker, who leads the Integrated Homicide Investigation Team. The police have also released their photos.

They have been charged with first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder, showed court documents.

Police said that none of the suspects were known to them earlier and they were investigating their possible ties to the Indian government.

The murder remains "very much under active investigation," Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) Assistant Commissioner David Teboul told a press conference on Friday.

"There are separate and distinct investigations ongoing into these matters, certainly not limited to the involvement of the people arrested today, and these efforts include investigating connections to the government of India," CTV News quoted him as saying.

Nijjar, a Canadian citizen who was wanted in India on various terror charges, was shot dead outside a gurdwara in Surrey on June 18, 2023. Trudeau's charge against India sparked a massive row later that year with both countries expelling diplomats of the other country.

A fresh row erupted earlier this week after separatist slogans on 'Khalistan' were raised at an event addressed by Trudeau, prompting New Delhi to summon their Deputy High Commissioner and lodge a strong protest.

On the sidelines of the event, Trudeau told reporters that Nijjar's killing had created a "problem" that he could not have ignored.

India rejected his comment and said it once again showed Canada provides political space given to separatism, extremism, and violence. "This not only impacts India-Canada relations but also encourages a climate of violence and criminality in Canada to the detriment of its own citizens," foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.

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News Network
May 8,2024

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Nearly 80 Air India Express flights were canceled after the cabin crew members went on a "mass sick leave", official sources said on Wednesday.

As many as 79 international and domestic flights were canceled after about 300 senior cabin crew members reported sick at the last minute and switched off their mobile phones.

The Air India Express management is currently trying to reach out to the crew, who are protesting against the new employment term at the Tata Group-owned airline, sources said.

The cabin crew has also alleged that there was a lack of equality in the treatment of the staff after the merger with Tata Group. They claim that some staff members were offered lower job position despite clearing interviews, sources said.

"A section of our cabin crew has reported sick at the last minute, starting last night, resulting in flight delays and cancellations. While we are engaging with the crew to understand the reasons behind these occurrences, our teams are actively addressing this issue to minimise any inconvenience caused to our guests as a result," an Air India Express spokesperson said.

"We sincerely apologise to our guests for this unexpected disruption and emphasise that this situation does not reflect the standard of service we strive to provide," the spokesperson added.

Guests impacted by cancellations will be offered a full refund or complimentary rescheduling to another date, the airline said.

Several passengers took to their social media accounts and complained about the sudden cancellations of their flights. They said that they had "no information" about the cancellations.

Some "very disappointed" passengers on X said that they had reached the airport when they were informed that their flights were canceled.

"We apologise for any inconvenience. Please be informed that your flight has been canceled due to operational reasons," Air India Express said in response to one of the posts on X.

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