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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Voting has begun in 88 constituencies across 13 states and Union Territories amid a furious row between the Congress and the BJP over manifesto and inheritance tax. Election will be held on all seats of Kerala, a chunk of Rajasthan and UP.

Key points

Elections for the second phase will be held for 20 seats of Kerala, 14 seats in Karnataka, 13 in Rajasthan, eight each in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, seven in Madhya Pradesh, five each in Assam and Bihar, three each in Bengal and Chhattisgarh and one each in Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur and Tripura.

Earlier, 89 constituencies were expected to vote in this phase. But polling in Betul, Madhya Pradesh, was rescheduled after the death of a candidate from Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. Betul will now vote in the third phase, due on May 7.

Key candidates for this round include the BJP's Union minister Rajeev Chandrashekhar  -- up against Congress' Shashi Tharoor from Thiruvananthapuram; actors Hema Malini, and Arun Govil from 1980s iconic serial Ramayan, senior BJP leader Tejasvi Surya and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla,  Congress' Rahul Gandhi, KC Venugopal, Bhupesh Baghel. and Ashok Gehlot's son Vaibhav Gehlot.

For both BJP and the Opposition, the most crucial states in this phase will be Karnataka and Kerala. Karnataka is the only BJP bastion in the south, where the Congress won in the last assembly election. The party is hoping to do well amid concerns about delimitation and the disadvantage southern states could face after it.

Further south, the BJP is trying to break into the bipolar politics of Kerala. The party is hoping to open its account in the state having fielded Union ministers Rajiv Chandrasekhar and V. Muraleedharan. In Wayanand, a Congress bastion for over 20 years, it has fielded its state unit president K Surendran against Rahul Gandhi.

For the Opposition, Kerala is a big shining hope. Even though the Left and the Congress are competing against each other in the southern state, victory by either will add to the tally of the Opposition bloc INDIA. Kerala is one of the few states that have never sent a BJP member to parliament.

With north, west and northeast India saturated, the BJP is hoping to expand in the south and east in their quest for 370 seats. The party had won 303 seats in 2019, a majority of them from the Hindi heartland and bastions new and old, including Gujarat and the northeast.

The Congress, though, has claimed it would post a much better performance compared to 2019. After the first phase of the election, their claims have got louder, especially in Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh. Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Tejashwi Yadav has claimed INDIA will win all five seats in Bihar.  

The election is being held amid a bitter face-off between the Congress and the BJP. The row was sparked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comment that the Congress, if voted to power, will redistribute the personal wealth of people among "infiltrators" and won't even spare the mangalsutras of women. The Congress has questioned if the people had to fear for their wealth and mangalsutras in 55 years of the party's rule and accused the BJP of sidestepping issues that matter.

The next phase of election is due on May 7. The counting of votes will be held on June 4 – three days after the seventh and last phase of election on June 1.

Mangaluru: BJP candidate in Dakshina Kannada Capt Brijesh Chowta has received a letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi wishing him victory in the election.

In the letter, which the BJP shared with the media, the PM has lauded Chowta’s exceptional services in the armed forces as a part of the Gorkha regiment, especially in counter-insurgency operations. Modi also has mentioned about Chowta’s efforts as an organiser of the Mangaluru Lit Fest and his dedication to preserve the cultural heritage of the region.

“I am certain that you will immensely contribute towards the welfare of people and the region of Dakshina Kannada. Through this letter, I would like to tell the people of your constituency that this is not an ordinary election. Families across India, especially the senior members, would remember the difficulties they have gone through in the last five to six decades. In the last 10 years, the quality of life of every section of society has improved, with many of these troubles removed. Yet, a lot more is still to be done and this election will be decisive in our mission to ensure a better life for everyone,” reads the letter. 

“Your exceptional service in the armed forces as a part of the Gorkha regiment, especially in counter-insurgency operations, is commendable. Additionally, your efforts as an organiser of the Mangaluru Lit Fest demonstrate your dedication to preserving the cultural heritage of the region. I am certain that you will immensely contribute towards the welfare of people and the region of Dakshin Kannada”

“With the blessings of the people, I am confident that you will reach the Parliament. Team members like you are a great asset for me. As a team, we will leave no stone unturned for the welfare of the people of your constituency and the country. Through this letter, I would like to tell the people of your constituency that this is not an ordinary election. Families across India, especially the senior members, would remember the difficulties they have gone through in the last 5-6 decades. In the last 10 years, the quality of life of every section of society has improved, with many of these troubles removed. Yet, a lot more is still to be done and this election will be decisive in our mission to ensure a better life for everyone.

“This election is an opportunity to connect our present with a bright future. Every vote that the BJP gets will go towards forming a stable government and impart momentum in our journey to become a developed nation by 2047. The people of India themselves have made up their minds to support this vision and are leading the way in this election. I am aware that the summer heat poses problems to everyone. But this election is extremely important for the future of our nation. I appeal to the voters to cast their votes early in the morning, before the heat sets in.

“It is important that our workers motivate people to go out and vote in large numbers. Focus on winning the booth. Victory in every booth leads to success in the constituency. At the same time, I request workers of our party to take care of their health and that of other people around them. As a candidate of the BJP, I urge you to convey my assurance to each voter that every moment of my time is dedicated to the welfare of my fellow citizens. I send you my wishes for your victory in the election,” stated PM Modi in the letter.