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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Mangaluru: BJP candidate in Dakshina Kannada Capt Brijesh Chowta has received a letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi wishing him victory in the election.

In the letter, which the BJP shared with the media, the PM has lauded Chowta’s exceptional services in the armed forces as a part of the Gorkha regiment, especially in counter-insurgency operations. Modi also has mentioned about Chowta’s efforts as an organiser of the Mangaluru Lit Fest and his dedication to preserve the cultural heritage of the region.

“I am certain that you will immensely contribute towards the welfare of people and the region of Dakshina Kannada. Through this letter, I would like to tell the people of your constituency that this is not an ordinary election. Families across India, especially the senior members, would remember the difficulties they have gone through in the last five to six decades. In the last 10 years, the quality of life of every section of society has improved, with many of these troubles removed. Yet, a lot more is still to be done and this election will be decisive in our mission to ensure a better life for everyone,” reads the letter. 

“Your exceptional service in the armed forces as a part of the Gorkha regiment, especially in counter-insurgency operations, is commendable. Additionally, your efforts as an organiser of the Mangaluru Lit Fest demonstrate your dedication to preserving the cultural heritage of the region. I am certain that you will immensely contribute towards the welfare of people and the region of Dakshin Kannada”

“With the blessings of the people, I am confident that you will reach the Parliament. Team members like you are a great asset for me. As a team, we will leave no stone unturned for the welfare of the people of your constituency and the country. Through this letter, I would like to tell the people of your constituency that this is not an ordinary election. Families across India, especially the senior members, would remember the difficulties they have gone through in the last 5-6 decades. In the last 10 years, the quality of life of every section of society has improved, with many of these troubles removed. Yet, a lot more is still to be done and this election will be decisive in our mission to ensure a better life for everyone.

“This election is an opportunity to connect our present with a bright future. Every vote that the BJP gets will go towards forming a stable government and impart momentum in our journey to become a developed nation by 2047. The people of India themselves have made up their minds to support this vision and are leading the way in this election. I am aware that the summer heat poses problems to everyone. But this election is extremely important for the future of our nation. I appeal to the voters to cast their votes early in the morning, before the heat sets in.

“It is important that our workers motivate people to go out and vote in large numbers. Focus on winning the booth. Victory in every booth leads to success in the constituency. At the same time, I request workers of our party to take care of their health and that of other people around them. As a candidate of the BJP, I urge you to convey my assurance to each voter that every moment of my time is dedicated to the welfare of my fellow citizens. I send you my wishes for your victory in the election,” stated PM Modi in the letter.

Hubballi, Apr 23: Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on Tuesday spoke to father of slain student Neha Hiremath over phone and said "sorry" over his daughter's killing, and assured that "we will be on your side".

The Chief Minister also informed Niranjan Hiremath, who is also a Congress councillor of Hubballi-Dharwad Municipal Corporation, about the government's decision to hand over the murder case to the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) and setting up a special court to fast-track trial.

"Niranjan... very sorry. We will be on your side," Siddaramaiah told Hiremath over the phone call during state's Law and Parliamentary Affairs Minister H K Patil's visit to Hiremath's house here.

In the conversation on Patil's phone with speakers on, Siddaramaiah can be heard informing Hiremath about the CID probe and setting up a special court.

"It is a serious offence... setting up a special court will ensure punishment for the accused person."

Hiremath thanked Siddaramaiah on behalf of his family well-wishers and the community for handing over the case to CID and setting up a special court "...ensure there is an order at the earliest and provide us justice," he said, as he also thanked Patil, Home Minister G Parameshwara, local Congress MLA Prasad Abbayya and others for their support.

Replying to this, Siddaramaiah said, "We will ensure it, at the earliest."

In a shocking incident, Neha Hiremath (23), was stabbed to death on the campus of BVB College last Thursday. The accused Fayaz Khondunaik, who fled from the scene, was arrested by the police subsequently.

Neha was a first year Master of Computer Application (MCA) student and Fayaz was earlier her classmate.

Siddaramaih on Monday had announced his government has decided to hand over the investigation into the incident to the Crime Investigation Department, and to set up a special court for speedy disposal of the case.

The case of brutal murder, which sparked widespread outrage, has snowballed into a political slugfest between ruling Congress and opposition BJP.

While the ruling party has tried to project it as an incident with personal angle, the saffron party has called it a "love jihad" case and has said it's a testimony of deterioration of law and order in the state.

Earlier, Siddarmaiah's statement that the murder was due to "personal reasons" and Home Minister G Parameshwara's comments that the duo was in love, has elicited sharp reactions from Hiremath and family members and opposition parties.