Exit polls had predicted NDA victory in 2004, 2009, but UPA formed govt

coastaldigest.com news network
May 19, 2019

The exit polls have a history of underplaying the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), while it has historically overplayed the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) performance.

In 2004, the average of the exit polls had predicted 252 seats for the then incumbent NDA, giving it yet another term at the center, and 186 seats for the UPA. 

However, in the actuals, UPA ended up forming the government with 219 seats to its kitty, while the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA, with 187 seats ended up occupying the opposition benches. 

The analysis reveals that the exit polls had overplayed the NDA’s performance by 25.8% back then while underplaying the UPA’s performance by 17.7%.

Again in 2009, when incumbent UPA returned to power, the exit polls had predicted a loss of seats for UPA. However, UPA ended up with a huge gain in the number of seats. Back then, the exit polls had predicted that UPA’s tally to diminish to 196 seats. 

However, the coalition, in reality, won 262 seats, a variation of whopping 33.67%. On the other hand, NDA, which exit polls expected to gain turf, won 159 seats against predicted 187 seats – overplaying the performance by 14.97%.

In 2014, when the country was riding on huge Modi-wave, though the exit polls got their directions right, yet they were completely off the mark when it came to the victory margin of NDA, like many other political pundits. While the exit polls gave NDA 274 seats, it ended up with 336 seats, a variation of 22.7%. On the other hand, the exit polls predicted 115 seats for the UPA, which faced a complete rout ending up with 60 seats.

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News Network
May 1,2024

Hassan MP and Lok Sabha election candidate of the BJP-JD(S) alliance Prajwal Revanna, who is facing an inquiry over the alleged sexual abuse of several women, said the truth will prevail.

The MP, who left the country as soon as the election to his constituency ended, has also sought seven days' time to appear before the Special Investigation Team (SIT) formed by the Karnataka government to inquire into the huge cache of about 3,000 explicit videos and photos allegedly pertaining to him, which have gone viral on social media.

“As I am not in Bangalore to attend the enquiry, I have communicated to CID Bangalore through my advocate. Truth will prevail soon,” Prajwal, grandson of former prime minister and JD(S) patriarch H D Deve Gowda, said in a post on X.

A case has been registered against MLA and former minister H D Revanna and his son Prajwal at Holenarasipura on a complaint lodged by their former cook and relative for allegedly sexually harassing her.

She also alleged that Prajwal made video calls to her daughter and spoke in an objectionable manner, which forced her to block him.

The MP who is seeking re-election from Hassan on a JD(S) ticket, shared a letter by his lawyer Arun G to the Deputy Superintendent of Police of the SIT, in which he has sought seven days' time to appear before the official because he is abroad.

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News Network
April 24,2024

HSRP.jpg

With the Karnataka transport department extending the deadline for the installation of High Security Registration Plate (HSRP) twice--- in November last year and February, it is no longer planning to extend the same. The department ordered for the installation of HSRP before May 31.

The transport department through a notification in August last year, had mandated the installation on all the vehicles that were registered in the state prior to April 1, 2019. According to transport officials, there are nearly two crore vehicles that are supposed to get HSRP for their vehicles.

“As of now, the state has registered only 34 lakh HSRP installations, despite extending the deadline twice. From nearly 18 lakh installations since February, the numbers have almost doubled. However, there are still a large number of vehicles that have to opt for HSRP,” said C Mallikarjuna, Additional Commissioner for Transport (Enforcement).

“We will wait till May 31 to check for the total number of vehicles that fall in line. We are expecting HSRP installations to touch 75 lakh, after which we will consider an extension as the numbers indicate that people are falling in line and if some more time is given everyone will get it done. However, if we do not reach that number before the deadline, we will request the government not to extend the deadline but urge for an enforcement,” he said.

He also stated that a fine of Rs 500 will be imposed for the first time and if vehicle owners do not fall in line, it will be Rs 1,000 later until they have installed HSRP. “We will wait till the Model Code of Conduct ends and take the government’s opinion. We are going to request the government for strict enforcement if the HSRP installations are not satisfactory,” he added.

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News Network
April 23,2024

Nationalcommision.jpg

The Karnataka government's decision to categorise the entire Muslim community as a backward caste for reservation purposes in the state has drawn criticism from the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC), which said such blanket categorisation undermines the principles of social justice.

According to the data submitted by the Karnataka Backward Classes Welfare Department, all castes and communities within the Muslim religion have been enlisted as socially and educationally backward classes under Category IIB in the State List of Backward Classes.

The NCBC, during a field visit last year, examined the state's reservation policy for OBCs in educational institutions and government jobs.

"All castes/communities of Muslim religion of Karnataka are being treated as socially and educationally backward classes of citizens and listed as Muslim Caste separately under Category IIB in the State List of Backward Classes for providing them reservation in admission into educational institutions and in appointments to posts and vacancies in the services of the State for the purpose of Articles 15(4) and 16(4) of the Constitution of India," the NCBC said in a statement on Monday night.

This categorisation has led to the provision of reservation benefits for 17 socially and educationally backward castes under Category I and 19 castes under Category II-A, respectively.

The NCBC said the blanket categorisation of Muslims as a backward caste undermines the principles of social justice, particularly for the marginalised Muslim castes and communities identified as socially and educationally backward.

However, the NCBC emphasised that while there are indeed underprivileged and historically marginalised sections within the Muslim community, treating the entire religion as backward overlooks the diversity and complexities within Muslim society.

"The religion-based reservation affects and works against ethics of social justice for categorically downtrodden Muslim castes/communities and identified socially and educationally backward Muslim castes/communities under Category-I (17 Muslim castes) and Category II-A (19 Muslim castes) of State List of Backward Classes. Hence, socially and educationally backward castes/communities cannot be treated at par with an entire religion," the NCBC stated.

The NCBC also voiced concern over the impact of such reservations on the overall framework of social justice, particularly in the context of local body polls.

While Karnataka provides 32 per cent reservation to backward classes in local body elections, including Muslims, the Commission stressed the need for a nuanced approach that accounts for the diversity within these communities.

According to the 2011 Census, Muslims constitute 12.92 per cent of the population in Karnataka.

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