Will study Afzal Guru's mercy plea, says President Pranab

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

The BJP has opened its account in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. The party's candidate from Gujarat's Surat constituency, Mukesh Dalal, has won the polls as all his opponents are now out of the fray.

BJP's Mukesh Dalal elected unopposed from the Surat Lok Sabha seat after all other candidates withdrew from the contest, the party's Gujarat unit chief CR Paatil said today. Today was the deadline for withdrawing nominations.

The nominations of the Congress party's Surat candidate and his substitute were rejected by the returning officer over alleged discrepancies in paperwork, a development that the Congress called an attempt at "match-fixing".

"Surat has presented the first lotus to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. I congratulate our candidate for Surat Lok Sabha seat Mukesh Dalal for getting elected unopposed," Mr Paatil posted on the microblogging website X, referring to the BJP's election symbol.

Eight candidates - seven of them independents - and Pyarelal Bharti of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) withdrew their papers.

The nomination papers of the Congress's Surat candidate Nilesh Kumbhani was rejected on Sunday after the district returning officer Saurabh Parghi found discrepancies in the signatures of the proposers.

The nomination form of Suresh Padsala, the Congress's substitute candidate from Surat, was also found invalid.

The returning officer had said the four nomination forms submitted by the two Congress candidates did not appear genuine. The proposers, in their affidavits, had said they had not signed the forms themselves, the returning officer said in the order.

Congress lawyer Babu Mangukiya said the party will approach the high court and the Supreme Court for relief.

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh in a post on X said the Surat developments indicate "democracy is under threat". "Our elections, our democracy, Babasaheb Ambedkar's Constitution - all are under a generational threat. This is the most important election of our lifetime," Mr Ramesh said.

Mr Ramesh alleged the "distress" of micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) owners and the business community in PM Modi's "Anyay Kaal" and their anger have "spooked the BJP so badly that they are attempting to match-fix the Surat Lok Sabha polls, which they have won consistently since the 1984 Lok Sabha elections."

Ambikapur (Chhattisgarh): Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday hit out at the Congress, saying the 'vote bank hungry' party wanted to implement reservation on the basis of religion.

Addressing a poll rally in Ambikapur, the headquarters of Surguja district in Chhattisgarh, PM Modi also said the Congress wanted to impose inheritance tax in the country and snatch the rights of people's children.

Some forces want a "weak" government of the Congress and "I.N.D.I." alliance in the country as they thought that if India becomes 'atmanirbhar' (self-reliant), their shops will be shut, he said.

"Today when I have come to Surguja, I want to present the Muslim League thinking of the Congress in front of the country. When their manifesto was released, on the same day I had said, and saying today also that the Congress manifesto has the imprint of Muslim League," Modi said.

When the Constitution was being drafted, it was decided under the leadership of Babasaheb Ambedkar that there would be no reservation on the basis of religion in India, he said.

"If there will be reservation then it will be for by Dalit brothers and sisters and tribal brothers and sisters," he said.

"But the vote bank hungry Congress never cared about the words of the great personalities, sanctity of the Constitution and the words of Babasaheb Ambedkar. Years ago, the Congress made an attempt to implement reservation on the basis of religion in Andhra Pradesh. Then Congress has planned to implement it in the entire country," Modi said.

They talked about implementing 15 per cent reservation on the basis of religion and said it will be done after curtailing the quota of the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes, he added.

In its 2009 manifesto, Congress's intention was the same and in the 2014 manifesto, it clearly said it will not leave this issue, the prime minister said.

The Congress wanted to change the Constitution and hand over rights of the SCs, STs and OBCs to its vote bank, he said.

The intention of the Congress is not good, it is not according to the Constitution, social justice and secularism. If anyone can protect your reservation, it is the BJP, Modi said.

"The Congress's eyes are not only on your reservation, but also on your earnings, your houses, shops and farms. The 'shehzada' of Congress (apparently referring to Rahul Gandhi) says they will conduct an X-ray of the property of every house and every family in the country. The Congress will snatch all these from you and they say that they will equally distribute them," he said.

Do you know to whom they will distribute it after 'looting' it from you? Modi asked, to which the people replied in affirmative.

"I need not to tell you to whom they will distribute," he added.

Modi further said the 'dangerous intentions' of Congress are coming to forth one by one and now it says it will impose inheritance tax.

"The advisor of shehzada of the shahi parivar, who was also the advisor to the shehzada's father, had said that more tax should be imposed on the middle class and those who earn by toiling hard. Now the Congress says it will impose inheritance tax. It will impose tax on the assets inherited by people from their parents. Now, the panja (Congress poll symbol) will snatch the assets from your children," he said without taking any name.

The Congress' mantra is 'loot of Congress zindagi ke sath bhi, zindagi ke baad bhi', he said.

"They (Congress) want to snatch your assets and rights of your children," Modi added.

The PM also said he had come to seek people's blessings for a developed Chhattisgarh and a developed India.