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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Bengaluru, Apr 25: Former union minister C M Ibrahim, who was expelled from Janata Dal (Secular) for protesting against party’s alliance with BJP, has stressed on need for a third front not just at the national level, but also in Karnataka. 

Addressing a news conference in Bengaluru on Wednesday, he said he’s planning to form a third front in Karnataka along with Lingayat Seer Dingaleshwar Swami.

Ibrahim said that he will tour the state between April 27 and May 4 and that he would meet Dingaleshwar Swami on April 29. “There is a need for the third front in this country. We will try to establish a third front in association with the seer and we hope we will be successful in those efforts,” he said.

Expressing disappointment with the Congress for not doing enough to gain the full confidence of Muslims, Ibrahim said that Congress is concentrating only on certain communities for votes, and ignoring Muslims. 

“The Congress is not even caring for Muslims and Dalit votes. In some Muslim areas they did not even hold campaigns seeking votes and trying to convince the communities which never vote in their favour. I fear this may lead to low turnout and Congress may lose its vote base,” he opined.

Mentioning about guarantees on which Congress is strongly relying during this election, Ibrahim said, such things won’t work all the time. “Guarantees will not work anymore. Every election you need to give something new to the voters,” he added.

On Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement that Congress is trying to appease minorities for votes, Ibrahim requested both Congress and BJP parties not bring Muslims between them. “I request both parties. Leave us alone. Don’t make us sandwiches for your political sake. We are living with peace and hope even the Prime Minister will understand this,” Ibrahim added.

Launching a broadside against Prime Minister Deve Gowda, Ibrahim said, “Deve Gowda has sold his personality itself. Whatever I have told about JD(S) has come true. I pity, a former Prime Minister should not have come to this stage,” he said. 

Kolkata: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh or Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari could have been the prime minister, said Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, subtly taking a dig at the Bharatiya Janata Party leaders relegated to the second rung of the organisational echelons.

Banerjee’s nephew and the TMC general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, on the other hand, attempted to stoke trouble within the BJP’s unit in West Bengal, saying that at least 10 more state legislators of the saffron party were keen to join his party and in touch with him.

"You (Rajnath Singh) are surviving at the mercy of Modi (Prime Minister Narendra Modi). You are saluting Modi daily to save your chair. You or Nitin Gadkari could have been the PM (prime minister) today," the TMC supremo said in an election rally at Ausgram in Bolpur Lok Sabha constituency on Wednesday. "There would have been no problem...at least there would have been a gentleman in the chair who knows minimum courtesy," she added.

Banerjee was responding to Singh’s diatribe against herself and the TMC government led by her. The defence minister, who had addressed an election rally in Murshidabad on Sunday, had criticised the TMC government for alleged corruption and anarchy in West Bengal.

Singh had referred to the attacks on the Enforcement Directorate officials on January 5 during a raid at the residence of the TMC leader Sheikh Shahjahan at Sandeshkhali in North 24 Parganas district of the state. It was followed by an agitation by local women protesting against atrocities by Shahjahan and his aides known to be owing allegiance to the TMC.

Singh questioned how the state government, led by a woman as the chief minister, could allow such atrocities on women to take place. He went on to say that Banerjee had lost all ‘mamata’ (affection and compassion) for people.

Banerjee shared a cordial relationship with Singh since the days when they both were ministers in the central government led by then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Singh avoided personally criticising Banerjee in the past.

He, however, went ballistic against Banerjee on Sunday, triggering a strong response from the TMC supremo on Wednesday.

"The BJP is trying to get into the game of breaking parties, but they can't win in it. They poached two of our MPs, and we replied by taking two of their MPs, Arjun Singh and Babul Supriyo. Recently, by using ED raids, they inducted Tapas Ray. At least 10 top leaders of the BJP are in the queue to join the TMC," Abhishek said in another election rally in Murshidabad on Wednesday.