PM’s Economic Advisory Council junks Arvind Subramanian paper, plans rebuttal

Agencies
June 13, 2019

New Delhi, Jun 13: A day after Arvind Subramanian's sensational disclosure that India's GDP has been overestimated by an astronomical 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17 which immediately attracted a strong reaction from the government, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council came to the Centre's defence, saying that proper methodology was followed and that experts were consulted in calculating the country's overall economic growth estimates.

The council also termed parts of former chief economic advisor's report "most unusual exercise" that attempted to "sensationalize" what should have been a proper academic debate.

In a statement put out on Wednesday afternoon, the council, headed by economist Bibek Debroy, said it would come out with a "point-to-point rebuttal" in due course, indicating the seriousness attached by the government to buttress assertions made in Subramanian's research paper.

"It is worth noting that the Base Year of India's income calculations shifted to 2011-12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in National Income Accounting. It was on the basis of these recommendations, started in 2008, that the Government implemented the change from January, 2015," a government statement reflecting council's views said.

"Therefore, it is wrong to suggest that the views of experts have not been taken into account while changing the Base Year or weights or switching from Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) to Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) 21," the statement added.

In his recent research paper published by Harvard University, the former CEA has said there is a possibility of substantial overestimation in the growth figures while stating that the actual GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 was around 4.5% as against 7%.

Subramanian has suggested that India's GDP growth estimate has been overestimated by around 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17, a period that covers the years during both the UPA and the NDA governments.

The adoption of a new GDP series to measure the country's economic growth, months after the government itself slashed previous UPA-era GDP growth rate for 2010-11 from the earlier estimated 10.3% to 8.5%, has fuelled controversy.

"In his paper, Dr. Subramanian has used cross-country regressions to estimate what India's GDP should be. Using cross-country regressions to estimate GDP is a most unusual exercise, as is the suggestion that any country's GDP that is off the regression line must be questioned. The proxy indicators that he used can also be questioned. Nor does this exercise allow for GDP increases on the basis of productivity gains," the council said in the statement.

It added that a country's GDP is in nominal terms and any exercise should be on the basis of nominal figures, not real growth rates.

"The Economic Advisory Council will examine in detail the estimates made in Dr. Arvind Subramanian's paper and come out with a point-to-point rebuttal in due course. At the moment, it is felt that any attempt to sensationalize what should be a proper academic debate is not desirable from the point of view of preserving the independence and quality of India's statistical systems, all of which the former CEA is familiar with," the council said.

It also said that some of the issues that Subramanian is raising now should have been raised while he was working as CEA, "though by his own admission, he has taken time to understand India's growth numbers and is still unsure."

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News Network
April 24,2024

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With the Karnataka transport department extending the deadline for the installation of High Security Registration Plate (HSRP) twice--- in November last year and February, it is no longer planning to extend the same. The department ordered for the installation of HSRP before May 31.

The transport department through a notification in August last year, had mandated the installation on all the vehicles that were registered in the state prior to April 1, 2019. According to transport officials, there are nearly two crore vehicles that are supposed to get HSRP for their vehicles.

“As of now, the state has registered only 34 lakh HSRP installations, despite extending the deadline twice. From nearly 18 lakh installations since February, the numbers have almost doubled. However, there are still a large number of vehicles that have to opt for HSRP,” said C Mallikarjuna, Additional Commissioner for Transport (Enforcement).

“We will wait till May 31 to check for the total number of vehicles that fall in line. We are expecting HSRP installations to touch 75 lakh, after which we will consider an extension as the numbers indicate that people are falling in line and if some more time is given everyone will get it done. However, if we do not reach that number before the deadline, we will request the government not to extend the deadline but urge for an enforcement,” he said.

He also stated that a fine of Rs 500 will be imposed for the first time and if vehicle owners do not fall in line, it will be Rs 1,000 later until they have installed HSRP. “We will wait till the Model Code of Conduct ends and take the government’s opinion. We are going to request the government for strict enforcement if the HSRP installations are not satisfactory,” he added.

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News Network
April 22,2024

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The BJP has opened its account in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. The party's candidate from Gujarat's Surat constituency, Mukesh Dalal, has won the polls as all his opponents are now out of the fray.

BJP's Mukesh Dalal elected unopposed from the Surat Lok Sabha seat after all other candidates withdrew from the contest, the party's Gujarat unit chief CR Paatil said today. Today was the deadline for withdrawing nominations.

The nominations of the Congress party's Surat candidate and his substitute were rejected by the returning officer over alleged discrepancies in paperwork, a development that the Congress called an attempt at "match-fixing".

"Surat has presented the first lotus to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. I congratulate our candidate for Surat Lok Sabha seat Mukesh Dalal for getting elected unopposed," Mr Paatil posted on the microblogging website X, referring to the BJP's election symbol.

Eight candidates - seven of them independents - and Pyarelal Bharti of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) withdrew their papers.

The nomination papers of the Congress's Surat candidate Nilesh Kumbhani was rejected on Sunday after the district returning officer Saurabh Parghi found discrepancies in the signatures of the proposers.

The nomination form of Suresh Padsala, the Congress's substitute candidate from Surat, was also found invalid.

The returning officer had said the four nomination forms submitted by the two Congress candidates did not appear genuine. The proposers, in their affidavits, had said they had not signed the forms themselves, the returning officer said in the order.

Congress lawyer Babu Mangukiya said the party will approach the high court and the Supreme Court for relief.

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh in a post on X said the Surat developments indicate "democracy is under threat". "Our elections, our democracy, Babasaheb Ambedkar's Constitution - all are under a generational threat. This is the most important election of our lifetime," Mr Ramesh said.

Mr Ramesh alleged the "distress" of micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) owners and the business community in PM Modi's "Anyay Kaal" and their anger have "spooked the BJP so badly that they are attempting to match-fix the Surat Lok Sabha polls, which they have won consistently since the 1984 Lok Sabha elections."

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News Network
April 16,2024

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New Delhi:  Twenty-nine Maoists, including a senior rebel leader - Shankar Rao, who had a bounty of ₹ 25 lakh on his head - were killed by security forces during an encounter in Chhattisgarh's Kanker district on Tuesday afternoon. A huge quantity of weapons, including Ak-47 and INSAS rifles, were recovered. 

Three security personnel were injured in the gunfight, which took place in forests near the village of Binagunda after a joint team of District Reserve Guard and Border Security Force were attacked.

Two of the three injured are from the BSF. Their condition is stable but the third - from the DRG - is in critical care. All three received treatment at a local hospital and are to be shifted to a larger facility.

Sources said the fighting began at around 2 PM, when a joint DRG-BSF team was conducting an anti-Maoist operation. The DRG was set up in in 2008 to combat Maoist activities in the state, and the Border Security Force has been deployed extensively in the area to for counter-insurgency ops.

There was another encounter in the district last month, in which two people - a Maoist and a cop - were killed, and security forces recovered a gun, some explosives, and other incriminating materials.

Personnel from the DRG and Bastar Fighters, both units of the state police force, with the Border Security Force, were involved in that operation, officials told news agency PTI. The patrolling team was cordoning off a forested area when fired on indiscriminately, leading to the gun battle.

In November last year, while the state was voting in the first phase of an Assembly election, a gunfight broke out between security forces and Maoist rebels in the same district.

An Ak-47 rifle was recovered from the encounter site.

On the same day, while polling was taking place, Maoists fired at DRG personnel deployed near a polling station in Banda in Dantewada district.

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