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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Bengaluru: All India Mahila Congress President Alka Lamba on Monday accused the BJP and JD(S) of being silent over the alleged sex scandal involving Hassan MP Prajwal Revanna and said the horrifying case of violence against women has shocked the nation.

"More than 3000 videos with hundreds of women being sexually harassed, violated and even brutalised by MP Prajwal Revanna over the past few years have shaken the conscience of Kannadigas and Indians alike," she told at a press conference here.

Prajwal (33) is grandson of JD(S) supremo and former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda. JD(S) joined the NDA in September last year. He was the NDA candidate in Hassan Lok Sabha constituency, which went for polls on April 26.

According to police sources, he left the country after voting was over.

The Congress government in Karnataka on Sunday constituted a Special Investigation Team to probe the alleged sex scandal.

Some explicit video clips allegedly involving Prajwal had started making the rounds in Hassan in recent days.

Lamba said the horrifying case of sexual violence against hundreds of women has shocked the nation.

"These acts of sexual brutality against hapless women has revealed the depravity of MP Prajwal Revanna, but the silence and sheer apathy of the BJP and JDS in this horrendous case is absolutely shameful," she said.

She alleged that in these videos, some recorded against the consent of the victim, women are seen pleading to be spared but the MP continues to brutalise and sexually violate them. Party 'karyakartas', panchayat members, elderly women, women who came asking for help to him and even maids have not been spared.

"The horrible fact is, that the acts of this sexual predator MP Prajwal Revanna was endorsed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he campaigned in Old Mysuru Region on April 14th, 2024," she alleged.

"....the BJP JDS are still silent which shows you their true Anti Woman DNA!! Will the BJP or JDS answer?".

Congress workers protested outside the home of Nilesh Kumbhani, the party's candidate from Gujarat's Surat Lok Sabha seat whose nomination form was rejected due to alleged discrepancies, as he was likely to join the BJP, sources said on Tuesday.

The protest came a day after the BJP's Mukesh Dalal was declared the winner from the party stronghold following the withdrawal of all the other eight candidates in the fray.

The sources said that the protesters called Kumbhani a "traitor" and "killer of democracy", adding that he could join the BJP as early as this week.

Kumbhani's nomination form was rejected after he was unable to present even one of his three proposers before Returning Officer Sourabh Pardhi.

The BJP had raised questions about the discrepancies in the signatures of three proposers in his nomination form.

The nomination form of Suresh Padsala, the Congress' substitute candidate from Surat, was also invalidated, pushing the party out of the poll fray in the BJP stronghold.

In his order, Pardhi said the four nomination forms submitted by Kumbhani and Padsala were rejected because at first sight, discrepancies were found in the signatures of the proposers, and they did not appear genuine.

The Lok Sabha elections in the Surat seat was supposed to take place on May 7.