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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Mysuru, Apr 29: Veteran politician and incumbent Chamarajanagar MP V Srinivas Prasad breathed his last at 76.The stalwart BJP leader, who had been battling health issues, succumbed to a severe heart attack, leaving behind a void in Karnataka's political arena.

A Dalit leader in the Old Mysuru region, Prasad was in Congress but joined the Bharatiya Janata Party before the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections following a fallout with Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. The two had recently met in Mysuru and discussed the political scenario in the state.

Prasad extended support to the Congress in the Lok Sabha election 2024 and this is being seen as a crucial factor in the SC-reserved Chamarajanagar constituency, which Prasad represented in Parliament. On April 2, Prasad’s relatives and supporters joined Congress.

He served as a Union minister from 1999 to 2004 as the Loka Jana Shakthi MP. In the Karnataka Assembly elections, he was elected twice as an MLA and served as the state’s revenue minister.

Prasad, known for his distinguished political career spanning over five decades, was admitted to Manipal Hospital in Bengaluru due to urinary tract-related complications and age-related ailments.

However, his condition deteriorated rapidly, leading to his untimely demise in the wee hours of Monday.

Born on August 6, 1947, in Ashokapuram, Mysuru, Prasad's political journey was marked by significant milestones. He represented Chamarajanagar constituency as MP for an unprecedented seven terms and had derved as MLA from Nanjangud constituency twice.

He had held key ministerial portfolios including Minister for Food and Civil Supplies in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government and Minister for Revenue and Muzrai in the Siddaramaiah-led Karnataka government.

He had joined the BJP officially in December 2016 and was elected as MP from Chamarajanagar again in 2019, showcasing his enduring popularity among constituents.

Prasad's demise has plunged the political fraternity and his supporters into mourning. His family members, political associates, and well-wishers are gathering to pay their final respects as his mortal remains are being transported from Manipal Hospital to his residence in Jayalakshmipuram, Mysuru.

The Exhibition Grounds in Mysuru will witness a stream of mourners as Prasad's mortal remains will be kept for public viewing, allowing people from all walks of life to bid farewell to their beloved leader.

Prasad's name had come up in the 'Tehelka tapes' controversy, after the sting operation by magazine Tehelka to expose defence deals under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government. The tapes showed Samata Party leader Jaya Jaitley allegedly telling an arms dealer to deposit money with Prasad, who was then in Bengaluru. However, Prasad denied these claims, saying he was in Mysuru at the time, and also sued Tehelka for defamation.

The Supreme Court of India on Friday, April 26, rejected pleas seeking 100% cross-verification of votes cast using EVMs with a Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) and said “blindly distrusting” any aspect of the system can breed unwarranted scepticism.

A bench of Justices Sanjiv Khanna and Dipankar Datta delivered two concurring verdicts. It dismissed all the pleas in the matter, including those seeking to go back to ballot papers in elections.

An EVM comprises three units – the ballot unit, the control unit and the VVPAT. All three are embedded with microcontrollers with a burnt memory from the manufacturer. Currently, VVPATs are used in five booths per assembly constituency.

EVM VVPAT case: Supreme Court issues two directives

1.    Justice Khanna directed the Election Commission of India to seal and store units used to load symbols for 45 days after the symbols have been loaded to electronic voting machines in strong rooms.

2.    The Supreme Court also allowed engineers of the EVM manufacturers to verify the microcontroller of the machines after the declaration of the results at the request of candidates who stood second and third. The top court said the request for the verification of the microcontroller can be made within seven days of the declaration of the results after payment of fees.

Option for candidates to seek verification of EVM programmes

•    Candidates who secure second and third position in the results can request for the verification of burnt memory semicontroller in 5% of the EVMs per assembly segment in a Parliamentary constituency. The written request to be made within seven days of the declaration of the results.

•    *On receiving such a written request, the EVMs shall be checked and verified by a team of engineers from the manufacturer of the EVMs.

•    Candidates should identify the EVMs to be checked by a serial number of the polling booth.

•    Candidates and their representatives can be present at the time of the verification.

•    After verification, the district electoral officer should notify the authenticity of the burnt memory.

•    Expenses for the verification process, as notified by the ECI, should be borne by the candidate making the request.
What did the Supreme Court say?

•    "If EVM is found tampered during verification, fees paid by the candidates will be refunded," the bench said.

•    "While maintaining a balanced perspective is crucial in evaluating systems or institutions, blindly distrusting any aspect of the system can breed unwarranted scepticism...," Justice Datta said.

Who filed the petitions?

NGO Association for Democratic Reforms, one of the petitioners, had sought to reverse the poll panel's 2017 decision to replace the transparent glass on VVPAT machines with an opaque glass through which a voter can see the slip only when the light is on for seven seconds.

The petitioners have also sought the court's direction to revert to the old system of ballot papers.