Patna/New Delhi, Nov 9: The Bihar election was billed as a grudge match between allies-turnedbitter foes, as a virtual referendum on PM Narendra Modi's appeal, and as a fight between 'secular' and 'communal' forces. It also became about who was 'Bihari' and 'bahari' and a row over the DNA of residents of India's third most populous state. Most called it "too close to call", exit polls were divided.
There was nothing close about the verdict. Nitish Kumar on Sunday led the 'secular' Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance to a landslide win over BJP-led NDA, avenging the humiliation Modi had inflicted on him in the Lok Sabha polls. This is the saffron alliance's second straight defeat — both crushing, but this one a lot more significant — after Delhi in February.
MGB's stunning victory, besides whetting the anti-BJP opposition's appetite for confrontation, represents a vote of confidence in Nitish's governance during his decade-long stint as chief minister and could spur efforts to form Bihar-type 'secular' coalitions in other states.
The win on the eve of Diwali also marked a spectacular comeback for Lalu Prasad, who had been in the political doldrums after suffering decisive defeats in consecutive state and central polls. After finishing third with a paltry 22 seats in the last elections, he has emerged as the single largest player in the 243-strong House with a tally of 80.
While Nitish, who like Lalu is also an OBC (Other Backward Caste; he's a Kurmi), projected development with social justice, the flamboyant Yadav chieftain unabashedly turned it into a backward vs forward caste struggle.
The win for Nitish, who now has a strong claim to be projected as the 'secular' PM candidate in 2019, may signal the beginning of the campaign for the next Lok Sabha polls, besides making things tougher for the government in Parliament. Lalu and Nitish as well as Rahul Gandhi, whose Congress rode on the coattails of the two Mandal warriors to return an astonishing high tally of 27 — the best since 1995 when it won 29 — all talked of a soon-to-be launched campaign against the Centre.
Sunday's outcome comes as a setback for PM Modi, who led BJP's high-pitched campaign to wrest Bihar with 30 rallies, as well as party chief Amit Shah, who camped in Patna for weeks. It's likely to raise questions about the resilience of the party's newly-acquired political pre-eminence, making the prospect of the return of coalition-era less improbable than it seemed a year ago after BJP's wins in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand.
The party's tally came down from 91 to 53; that is, two less than it had won in 2005 when it had contested 107 seats against the 159 in this election.
Like in Delhi, consolidation of anti-BJP votes was a major factor behind the party's drubbing on Sunday. But to party strategists, it would appear to be more worrisome because it has lost to players who did not have the novelty factor that Arvind Kejriwal enjoyed. After a long gap, even Congress came up trumps in direct encounters with the BJP.
The weakening of the aura will further shrink the possibility of the opposition helping the government with reforms measures like GST. Coming at a time of raging protests over 'growing intolerance', this will encourage ideological opponents to up their ante even further, thus potentially heightening the confrontation over 'culture' issues.
The PM is unlikely to face any serious challenge within his own party, but those who were never reconciled to his and Shah's paramountcy may feel emboldened to pick on vulnerabilities in their armour. Murmurs may grow as to whether he still has the same vote-pulling ability. Some senior colleagues had already started sharpening their knives, anticipating a victory for the Mahagathbandhan. They may start by raising questions about Shah's 'style', in what will essentially be a proxy fight.
Rajya Sabha MP Chandan Mitra fired the first salvo when he blamed the defeat on Shah's style. Shatrughan Sinha, who has turned dissident, claimed vindication and faulted the campaign strategy. Shiv Sena, whose alliance with BJP in Maharashtra has been increasingly strained, appeared to be gloating just like opponents ranging from Mamata Banerjee to Arvind Kejriwal.
While the criticism is not likely to snowball into a crisis, the pressure on the government to perform should spike if it is to avoid getting hobbled midway through its tenure, especially considering that at least four important assembly contests are scheduled next year. Given the unlikelihood of any concessions from the resurgent opposition, the PM may have to rely more on executive decisions to push through his agenda.
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