In contrast, the UPA and the Congress appear to be facing a rout with both polls giving the ruling alliance less than 130 seats and the Congress perhaps less than three digits for the first time ever. With parties like the AIADMK, the TDP, the TRS and the BJD, all of which would be regarded as potential BJP allies, projected to win 50 seats or more between them, the news for the BJP and Modi couldn't get better.
The India Today-CVoter poll predicted that the NDA would win 212 seats on the back of a dominant performance in the Hindi belt and the western states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. The CNN-IBN-CSDS poll was not very different in terms of the big national picture, though regional details vary between the two polls.
According to the CSDS poll, the NDA would win between 211 and 231 seats if elections were held now and the BJP alone would bag anywhere between 192 and 210, which would make it the party's best showing ever. At the upper limit of this range, the NDA would need just 41 more MPs to support it to gain a majority in the Lok Sabha.
While agreeing on the big picture, including on the fact that AAP will not have a major impact in terms of seats anywhere other than in Delhi, the two polls have significantly different predictions for key states. In Uttar Pradesh, for instance, the India Today-CVoter poll projects that the BJP will win 30 of the state's 80 seats, the BSP 24 and SP 20. The CNN-IBN-CSDS poll gives the BJP between 41 and 49 seats, BSP 10-16 and SP 8-14. Both agree that the Congress will decline drastically from the 21 seats it won last time in UP.
Similarly, while the CVoter poll sees the JD(U) getting nearly wiped out in Bihar, with just four seats, the CSDS poll gives Nitish's party anything between 7 ands 13 seats. Both give the BJP the bulk of Bihar's 40 seats but disagree on the distribution of the rest, primarily between RJD and JD(U).
In Tamil Nadu, too, while the CVoter poll gives the AIADMK a decisive edge with 29 of the state's 39 seats, the CSDS poll sees Jayalalityhaa's party winning between 15 and 23 seats. In Kerala, CVoter suggests the Left has the edge in a close contest while CSDS feels the Congress-led UDF is well ahead.
One of the regional parties on which both polls agree is the Trinamool Congress, with CVoter giving Mamata's party 23 of West Bengal's 42 seats and CSDS saying it could win between 20 and 28 seats. Either way, it would improve on its tally of 19 in 2009 and could end up being the third largest party in the Lok Sabha after the BJP and Congress. Whether Mamata would be able to leverage this gain in seats could be another matter.
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