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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Austrian police authorities have arrested the director of a Palestinian news agency based in the Gaza Strip, which is aligned with the Hamas resistance movement, following spurious allegations and intense pressure from the Tel Aviv regime’s officials.

Gaza Now News Network wrote in a post published on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, that “the occupying Israeli regime is trying hard to prosecute anyone connected to the Palestinian media as part of attempts to silence the voice of wounded Gaza and stop disclosure of the Palestinian nation’s sufferings and the massacres being committed against women, children and the elderly.”

It added, “The latest of such attempts was the prosecution of Palestinian-born journalist Mustafa Ayyash. Austrian police stormed his house, tampered with his personal belongings, confiscated electronic devices, arrested him and his wife, and took him for interrogation.”

Gaza Now noted that the Austrian police hacked its WhatsApp account, which is followed by 300,000 users, and closed it down. They also shut the news network’s Facebook pages and accounts, which are followed by some eight million users.

It underscored that Israeli officials threaten Ayyash from time to time with prosecution and assassination, and hamper the activities of the news network on social media platforms.

This comes as the Israeli military had earlier targeted Ayyash's family and killed scores of his relatives in a series of airstrikes in late November ahead of a temporary ceasefire.

The Permanent Observer of Palestine at the United Nations Salah Abdel-Shafi and Chairman of Hamas Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh mourned the death of his family.

Back on March 27, US and UK authorities unveiled sanctions against two people and three companies related to Gaza Now over alleged fundraising efforts “in support of Hamas.”

The Treasury Department said in a statement that Gaza Now, whose popular Telegram channel has more than 1.8 million followers, and its founder started fundraising for Hamas after the movement’s Operation al-Aqsa Storm against Israel on October 7.

The US also slapped sanctions against Aozma Sultana, the director of two companies that allegedly gave “thousands of dollars to Gaza Now and advertised Gaza Now as a partner during a joint fundraiser shortly after the large-scale surprise attack.”

Separately, the UK Treasury announced a full asset freeze against two individuals suspected of providing financial support for Gaza Now.

“All funds and economic resources in the UK belonging to or controlled by Sultana and Ayyash have been frozen,” they added.

Mangaluru, Apr 23: As an outbreak of avian flu has been reported in some districts of neighbouring Kerala, the border areas of Karnataka, including Mangaluru, have been put on high alert, officials of the Karnataka Animal Husbandry department said.

At present, the situation in Kerala is being monitored before any action can be taken, they said.

“Our Kerala counterparts have assured us that the avian flu has been contained within Alappuzha district. However, loading, booking and carrying poultry and poultry products on trains and at railway stations are still under consideration (surveillance), the officials said.

Not only railways but also road transport ferrying chicken loads from Kerala to Mangaluru are under surveillance. Mangaluru, being one of the largest consumers of chicken from Kerala, has halted chicken procurement from Kerala-based suppliers.

Sudhakar Shetty, a market functionary, stated, “The animal husbandry department of Kerala has advised containment of avian flu within a few districts in Kerala. We are closely monitoring the situation.” Despite this, the market has not experienced significant fluctuations in supply yet, as local stocks have been adequate to meet the demand for the next few days.

Demand for chicken could fall for a few days due to a series of temple festivals in coastal areas, where many consumers refrain from consuming meat-based meals until Saturday. Nevertheless, Sunday could witness a change, as consumers may desire hot chicken curry for their Sunday meals, according to the local people.

As officials in the animal husbandry department in Dakshina Kannada have raised awareness in the market about avian flu in the neighbouring state, the question arises whether prices will fall if demand decreases.

“We do not want to contribute to the hysteria surrounding avian flu until our local stock falls below the level of demand,” said Aston D’Souza, a farm owner.

Dakshina Kannada also serves as a good market for suppliers from Shivamogga, Hassan, and Chikkamagaluru.

“In case supplies dwindle due to an unlikely prolonged shutdown of Kerala supplies, we can always purchase from those districts, albeit at a slightly higher cost than Kerala stock,” Shetty said.