Mangaluru: Empathizing with flood survivors Muslims observe Eid Al Adha as rain gives a break

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

BJP MLA Arabail Shivaram Hebbar’s son Vivek Hebbar on Thursday, 11 April, joined the Congress party along with his supporters at Banavasi in Uttara Kannada district.

After quitting the BJP, Vivek Hebbar joined the party in the presence of state Congress vice president and former MLC Ivan D’Souza and other local party leaders.

Speculations have been rife about his father Shivaram Hebbar, an MLA from the Yellapur Assembly segment, also planning to join the Congress, ever since he did not turn up for voting during the polls to four seats of the Rajya Sabha from Karnataka held on 27 February.

The senior Hebbar’s absence from voting, despite a party whip, had caused embarrassment to the BJP. He had, however, later attributed his absence to poor health.

The BJP had also issued notice to him, which he responded to.

Shivaram Hebbar had recently met Deputy Chief Minister and state Congress chief DK Shivakumar but claimed that the meeting was about water issues in his Assembly segment.

The senior BJP leader was earlier with the Congress. He was among 17 Congress-JD(S) legislators, who had quit from their parties, which ultimately led to the collapse of the then HD Kumaraswamy-led coalition government in July 2019.

Shivaram Hebbar had subsequently won the by-poll on a BJP ticket and served as a minister in the then government of the saffron party.

New Delhi: Even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi's nasty election speech in Rajasthan's Banswara has triggered a nationwide controversy, the Election Commission has so far not taken any action. Meanwhile the Opposition bloc INDIA called the speech an attempt to divert attention from "real issues".

Addressing the people Banswara, on April 21, (Sunday) Modi openly attacked India’s Muslims, suggesting they were “infiltrators” and went on to claim that the opposition if elected would give away “mangalsutras” and “land” of those listening to his speech to them (Muslims). 

He referred to his immediate predecessor, Dr Manmohan Singh who was in office for 10 years as prime minister till 2014, and said, “Earlier, when his government was in power, he had said that Muslims have the first right on the country’s property, which means who will they collect this property and distribute it to – those who have more children, will distribute it to the infiltrators. Will the money of your hard work be given to the infiltrators? Do you approve of this?” 

Modi went on to say, “This Congress manifesto is saying that they will calculate the gold of the mothers and sisters, get information about it and then distribute it. Manmohan Singh’s government had said that Muslims have the first right on property. Brothers and sisters, these urban Naxal thoughts will not let even your mangalsutra escape, they will go this far.”

Narendra Modi and the BJP so far in their campaign trail have invoked religious faith, the Ram temple and Lord Ram multiple times, directly using it to call for people to vote for them. The Election Commission has been completely silent on the messaging via videos, tweets and other exhortations. 

Did Manmohan Singh really say that?

Modi’s claim that Dr Singh said that is not new and was refuted in 2006 itself by Singh’s PMO, when Modi had first made the false claim. The PMO had termed such remarks, “a deliberate and mischievous misinterpretation of what the Prime Minister said here yesterday at the meeting of the National Development Council, on fiscal priorities of the government.” It was termed “an avoidable controversy has been generated. The Prime Minister’s observations have also been quoted out of context in some sections of the electronic media, fuelling a baseless controversy.”

The full text of the paragraph in which the Prime Minister referred to the issue of minority empowerment to clarify the matter is as follows:

“I believe our collective priorities are clear: agriculture, irrigation and water resources, health, education, critical investment in rural infrastructure, and the essential public investment needs of general infrastructure, along with programmes for the upliftment of SC/STs, other backward classes, minorities and women and children. The component plans for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes will need to be revitalized. We will have to devise innovative plans to ensure that minorities, particularly the Muslim minority, are empowered to share equitably in the fruits of development. They must have the first claim on resources. The Centre has a myriad other responsibilities whose demands will have to be fitted within the over-all resource availability.”

The PMO’s clarification said. “it will be seen from the above that the Prime Minister’s reference to “first claim on resources” refers to all the “priority” areas listed above, including programmes for the upliftment of SCs, STs, OBCs, women and children and minorities.

Opposition reacts

Chairman, Media and Publicity department of the Congress, Pawan Khera said in a video message in a post, “We challenge the Prime Minister to show us if the word Hindu or Muslim is written anywhere in our manifesto. This kind of lightness is there in your mentality, in your political values. We have talked about justice for the youth, women, farmers, tribals, middle class and workers. Do you object to this as well?”

Khera was referring to earlier mistruths uttered by Modi about the “Muslim League” having influenced the Congress manifesto.

In Jharkhand’s Ranchi at an opposition rally, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge is reported to have said by BBC Hindi, “If democracy and the Constitution end in the country, then the people will have nothing left. Babasaheb Ambedkar ji and Jawaharlal Nehru ji gave equal voting rights to everyone, due to which all classes got respect. But Narendra Modi wants to snatch their rights from the poor.”

B.V. Srinivas termed it as unfortunate that “this person is the Prime Minister of this country, and an even bigger tragedy is that the Election Commission of India is no longer alive.” He said that “due to the frustration of impending defeat, the Prime Minister of India is openly sowing the seeds of hatred, he is polarising by misquoting Manmohan Singh’s 18-year-old incomplete statement, But the Election Commission (Modi ka parivar) is bowing down.”

Modi’s past hate-speech

Modi, in his 12-year tenure as chief minister of Gujarat was known to have made speeches targeting the state’s minority Muslim community brazenly, terming camps where Muslims were forced to stay in after communal violence gripped the state in 2002. Frontline covered him on his Gujarat Gaurav Yatra started shortly after the violence, at a rally at Becharaji in Mehsana district in northern Gujarat, when he said, “What should we do? Run relief camps for them? Do we want to open baby-producing centres? But for certain people that means hum paanch, hamare pachees.” 

In 2017 it was time again for direct speech targeting Muslims when in February he spoke of ‘shamshaan versus kabristan’ campaigning for UP and then for Gujarat elections when the BJP had its worst performance this millennium, in a speech at Palanpur on December 10, 2017 Modi invoked a “secret meeting” to get Pakistan to fix Gujarat’s assembly polls. He said that a meeting was held at Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar’s residence, attended by former PM Manmohan Singh, former Vice-President Hamid Ansari, former Army Chief Deepak Kapoor and distinguished diplomats to execute the plot. Modi’s PMO faced embarrassment when in response to an RTI filed by the Congress, his office was forced to say that Modi’s campaign speech could have been based on an “informal input”.

In the only question he has answered as part of a press conference with Joe Biden on June 22, 2023, Modi was asked, “India has long prided itself as the world’s largest democracy, but there are many human rights groups who say that your government has discriminated against religious minorities and sought to silence its critics.  As you stand here in the East Room of the White House, where so many world leaders have made commitments to protecting democracy, what steps are you and your government willing to take to improve the rights of Muslims and other minorities in your country and to uphold free speech?”

In response Modi appeared visibly frazzled and denied all charges. “I’m actually really surprised that people say so.  And so, people don’t say it.  Indeed, India is a democracy.” 

The journalist was trolled online by BJP leaders and supporters to such an extent that the White House had to come out and defend her and strongly denounce the trolling and abuse.