Dark days ahead for Indian rupee, reveal strategists

Agencies
March 7, 2019

Mar 7: The Indian rupee's weak start to 2019 is an indication of how it will perform over the coming year, strategists in a Reuters poll said, citing uncertainty ahead of a general election in May and a potential trade conflict with the United States.

Last year, the currency tumbled about 10 per cent and hit a record low of 74.485 to the dollar in October, marking its worse performance since 2013, driven by a sell-off in emerging markets and a widening fiscal deficit as oil prices rose.

While the consensus showed the rupee would not breach that record over the next 12 months, the currency was expected to weaken over 1 per cent to 71.28 in 12 months from about 70.50 on Wednesday, according to the poll of 50 currency strategists.

Still, in a general upswing for most currencies against the dollar, the rupee recouped some of its 2018 losses last month.

But the Indian currency, which is down about 1 per cent this year, is forecast to weaken nearly 2 per cent by end-May, suggesting upcoming elections are a clear risk.

"The rupee's weakness has started kicking back in...and will remain in play until the political dust settles," said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

A separate Reuters survey of equity strategists showed a majority win for the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) would be the most favorable outcome for stocks. Similarly, the rupee's stability would be influenced by the status quo being maintained post-election.

"We expect a win for the BJP in May, but it will be very difficult for the BJP to get a substantial majority...which will complicate a further implementation of necessary reforms," said Hugo Erken, a senior economist at Rabobank.

"In the medium-term we expect a gradual depreciation of the INR due to a normalization of inflation rates. In case of a loss for the BJP in May, we expect financial market volatility - the INR could potentially spike to 74, the levels that we saw during the Indian rupee crisis last year."

In addition to concerns about economic growth, which hit its slowest in five-quarters late last year, U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to cut India out of its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which allows duty-free entry of some Indian exports into the United States, is also likely to weigh on the rupee.

"While the global trade anxiety remains a headwind to the Indian economy and the INR, I wonder if it's now India on the US's radar after China, based on what the latest development of the U.S. ending the GSP may herald," added ING's Sakpal.

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News Network
December 4,2025

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Domestic carrier IndiGo has cancelled over 180 flights from three major airports — Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru — on Thursday, December 4, as the airline struggles to secure the required crew to operate its flights in the wake of new flight-duty and rest-period norms for pilots.

While the number of cancellations at Mumbai airport stands at 86 (41 arrivals and 45 departures) for the day, at Bengaluru, 73 flights have been cancelled, including 41 arrivals, according to a PTI report that quoted sources.

"IndiGo cancelled over 180 flights on Thursday at three airports-Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru," the source told the news agency.

Besides, it had cancelled as many as 33 flights at Delhi airport for Thursday, the source said, adding, "The number of cancellations is expected to be higher by the end of the day."

The Gurugram-based airline's On-Time Performance (OTP) nosedived to 19.7 per cent at six key airports — Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Hyderabad — on December 3, as it struggled to get the required crew to operate its services, down from almost half of December 2, when it was 35 per cent.

"IndiGo has been facing acute crew shortage since the implementation of the second phase of the FDTL (Flight Duty Time Limitations) norms, leading to cancellations and huge delays in its operations across the airports," a source had told PTI on Wednesday.

Chaos continued at several major airports for the third day on Thursday because of the cancellations.

A spokesperson for the Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) in Bengaluru said that 73 IndiGo flights had been cancelled on Thursday.

At least 150 flights were cancelled and dozens of others delayed on Wednesday, airport sources said, leaving thousands of travellers stranded, according to news agency Reuters.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has said it is investigating IndiGo flight disruptions and has asked the airline to submit the reasons for the current situation, as well as its plans to reduce flight cancellations and delays.

It may be mentioned here that the pilots' body, Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP), has alleged that IndiGo, despite getting a two-year preparatory window before the full implementation of new flight duty and rest period norms for cockpit crew, "inexplicably" adopted a "hiring freeze".

The FIP said it has urged the safety regulator, the DGCA, not to approve airlines' seasonal flight schedules unless they have adequate staff to operate their services "safely and reliably" in accordance with the New Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms.

In a letter to the DGCA late on Wednesday, the FIP urged the DGCA to consider re-evaluating and reallocating slots to other airlines, which have the capacity to operate them without disruption during the peak holiday and fog season if IndiGo continues to "fail in delivering on its commitments to passengers due to its own avoidable staffing shortages."

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News Network
December 6,2025

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New Delhi: IndiGo, India’s largest airline, faced major operational turbulence this week after failing to prepare for new pilot-fatigue regulations issued by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). The stricter rules—designed to improve flight safety—took effect in phases through 2024, with the latest implementation on November 1. IndiGo has acknowledged that inadequate roster planning led to widespread cancellations and delays.

Below are the key DGCA rules that affected IndiGo’s operations:

1. Longer Mandatory Weekly Rest

Weekly rest for pilots has been increased from 36 hours to 48 hours.

The government says the extended break is essential to curb cumulative fatigue. This rule remains in force despite the current crisis.

2. Cap on Night Landings

Pilots can now perform only two night landings per week—a steep reduction from the earlier limit of six.

Night hours, defined as midnight to early morning, are considered the least alert period for pilots.

Given the disruptions, this rule has been temporarily relaxed for IndiGo until February 10.

3. Reduced Maximum Night Flight Duty

Flight duty that stretches into the night is now capped at 10 hours.

This measure has also been kept on hold for IndiGo until February 10 to stabilize operations.

4. Weekly Rest Cannot Be Replaced With Personal Leave

Airlines can no longer count a pilot’s personal leave as part of the mandatory 48-hour rest.

Pilots say this closes a loophole that previously reduced actual rest time.

Currently, all airlines are exempt from this rule to normalise travel.

5. Mandatory Fatigue Monitoring

Airlines must submit quarterly fatigue reports along with corrective actions to DGCA.

This system aims to create a transparent fatigue-tracking framework across the industry.

The DGCA has stressed that these rules were crafted to strengthen flight safety and align India with global fatigue-management standards. The temporary relaxations are expected to remain until February 2025, giving IndiGo time to stabilise its schedules and restore normal air travel.

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News Network
December 6,2025

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With IndiGo flight disruptions impacting thousands of passengers, the airline on Saturday said that it will offer full waiver on all cancellations/reschedule requests for travel bookings between December 5, 2025 and December 15, 2025.

Earlier in the day, the civil aviation ministry had directed the airline to complete the ticket refund process for the cancelled flights by Sunday evening, as well as ensure baggage separated from the travellers are delivered in the next two days.

In a post on X, titled 'No questions asked', IndiGo wrote, "In response to recent events, all refunds for your cancellations will be processed automatically to your original mode of payment."

"We are deeply sorry for the hardships caused," it further added.

Several passengers, however, complained of not getting full refund as promised by the airline.

Netizens have shared screenchots of getting charged for airline cancellation fee and convenience fee.

"Please tell me why u have did this airline cancellation charges when u say full amount will be refunded (sic)," a user wrote sharing a screenshot of the refund page.

"Well, but you have still debited the convenience charges," wrote another.

Passengers have also raised concerns about the "cancel" option being disabled on the IndiGo app. "First enable the 'Cancel' button on your App & offer full refund on tickets cancelled by customers between the said dates," wrote a user.

A day after the country's largest airline, IndiGo, cancelled more than 1,000 flights and caused disruptions for the fifth day on Saturday, the ministry said that any delay or non-compliance in refund processing will invite immediate regulatory action.

The refund process for all cancelled or disrupted flights must be completed by 8 pm on Sunday, the ministry said in a statement.

"Airlines have also been instructed not to levy any rescheduling charges for passengers whose travel plans were affected by cancellations," it said.

On Saturday, more than 400 flights were cancelled at various airports.

IndiGo has also been instructed to set up dedicated passenger support and refund facilitation cells.

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