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New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

Kolkata: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh or Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari could have been the prime minister, said Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, subtly taking a dig at the Bharatiya Janata Party leaders relegated to the second rung of the organisational echelons.

Banerjee’s nephew and the TMC general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, on the other hand, attempted to stoke trouble within the BJP’s unit in West Bengal, saying that at least 10 more state legislators of the saffron party were keen to join his party and in touch with him.

"You (Rajnath Singh) are surviving at the mercy of Modi (Prime Minister Narendra Modi). You are saluting Modi daily to save your chair. You or Nitin Gadkari could have been the PM (prime minister) today," the TMC supremo said in an election rally at Ausgram in Bolpur Lok Sabha constituency on Wednesday. "There would have been no problem...at least there would have been a gentleman in the chair who knows minimum courtesy," she added.

Banerjee was responding to Singh’s diatribe against herself and the TMC government led by her. The defence minister, who had addressed an election rally in Murshidabad on Sunday, had criticised the TMC government for alleged corruption and anarchy in West Bengal.

Singh had referred to the attacks on the Enforcement Directorate officials on January 5 during a raid at the residence of the TMC leader Sheikh Shahjahan at Sandeshkhali in North 24 Parganas district of the state. It was followed by an agitation by local women protesting against atrocities by Shahjahan and his aides known to be owing allegiance to the TMC.

Singh questioned how the state government, led by a woman as the chief minister, could allow such atrocities on women to take place. He went on to say that Banerjee had lost all ‘mamata’ (affection and compassion) for people.

Banerjee shared a cordial relationship with Singh since the days when they both were ministers in the central government led by then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Singh avoided personally criticising Banerjee in the past.

He, however, went ballistic against Banerjee on Sunday, triggering a strong response from the TMC supremo on Wednesday.

"The BJP is trying to get into the game of breaking parties, but they can't win in it. They poached two of our MPs, and we replied by taking two of their MPs, Arjun Singh and Babul Supriyo. Recently, by using ED raids, they inducted Tapas Ray. At least 10 top leaders of the BJP are in the queue to join the TMC," Abhishek said in another election rally in Murshidabad on Wednesday.

The number of Palestinians arrested by Israeli military forces in the occupied West Bank has surged to 8,165 since October 7, when Israel launched its relentless offensive against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The Palestinian Prisoners Society and the Commission of Detainees and ex-Detainees in a joint statement on Tuesday said that over the past 24 hours, Israeli forces had arrested 20 Palestinians across the West bank.

The statement said that most of the arrests took place in Tulkarm, with additional arrests scattered across other cities, towns and refugee camps in the West Bank such as Beit Lahm, al-Khalil, Ramallah, Nablus, Tubas, and al-Quds.

The arrests were made amidst reports of widespread abuse, severe beatings, threats against detainees and their families, and extensive vandalism in citizens' homes and prisoners' residences in the Israeli prisons.

In the aftermath of the al-Aqsa Storm, over 8,165 arrests were made in the West Bank, with individuals including children being detained from their homes, at military checkpoints, coerced into surrendering, and even taken hostage, the statement revealed.

These figures do not include the thousands of adults and children the Israeli army has detained, tortured and interrogated in makeshift prisons across Gaza, outside any legal or civilian oversight.

Conditions for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails have allegedly worsened considerably, with detainees experiencing extreme overcrowding and limited access to essential rights, including food, water, electricity, medical care, family visits, and legal assistance.

Palestinian prisoner groups have repeatedly reported that Palestinians in Israeli prisons are being denied medical care, which pushes those jailed to the brink of death.

At least 10 Palestinians have died in Israeli prisons since Israel’s war on Gaza began, according to Palestinian news agency WAFA. But an investigation by Israeli daily Haaretz revealed that the number was actually at least 27. Rights groups put the number even higher.

Israel has intensified its attacks against Palestinians throughout the West Bank since October 7, when it launched a devastating war on the besieged Gaza Strip.

Since then, the Israeli forces and settlers have killed at least 459 Palestinians from the West Bank, with over 4,750 others sustaining injuries.

In the span of the past six months, at least 33,482 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have been killed in Gaza. The relentless violence has also resulted in the mass displacement of the 2.3 million people inhabitants of the Gaza Strip.

Concerns have been raised regarding the fate of those who have gone missing, as they may be trapped beneath the rubble or confined within makeshift Israeli prisons.

The significant number of Palestinian detainees remaining in Israeli prisons is a crucial role in truce negotiations between Palestinian resistance group Hamas and Israel.

About 130 of the 250 Israeli captives taken during Operation Al-Aqsa Storm are still in Gaza after a provisional truce deal in December saw the exchange of a number of prisoners between the two sides.