IMF lowers India's growth forecast over demonetisation, GST

Agencies
October 10, 2017

Washington, Oct 10: The IMF today lowered India's growth projection to 6.7 per cent in 2017, 0.5 percentage points less than its previous two forecasts and slower than China's 6.8 per cent, attributing it to demonetisation and introduction of the GST.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its current year growth forecast for China to 6.8 per cent, 0.1 percentage more than its two previous projections in April and July -- pushing the Communist giant above India at the top of the global growth tally.

It also lowered India's growth for 2018 to 7.4 per cent, 0.3 percentage points less than its previous two projections in July and April. India's growth rate in 2016 was 7.1 per cent, which saw an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from its April report.

"In India, growth momentum slowed, reflecting the lingering impact of the authorities' currency exchange initiative as well as uncertainty related to the midyear introduction of the country-wide Goods and Services Tax," the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report.

"Strong government spending and data revisions in India led to an upward revision of 2016 growth to 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent in April), with upward revisions of about 0.2 percentage point, on average, for 2014 and 2015," it said.

The latest report, released ahead of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank here this week, puts China slightly ahead of India in terms of growth rate for the year 2017.

However, India is likely to regain the tag of the fastest growth emerging economies of the world in 2018, with China projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2018, it said.

The GST, which promises the unification of India's vast domestic market, is among several key structural reforms under implementation that are expected to help push growth above eight per cent in the medium term, the report said.

"In India, simplifying and easing labour market regulations and land acquisition procedures are long-standing requirements for improving the business climate," the report said.

Between 1999 and 2008, India on an average grew at a rate of 6.9 per cent, the IMF said, adding that for the next three years its growth rates were 8.5 per cent in 2009, 10.3 in 2010 and 6.6 in 2011.

In the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 it grew at a rate of 5.5 percentage, 6.4 and 7.5 respectively. In 2015, India clocked a growth rate of 8 percentage points.

For the year 2022, the IMF has projected a growth rate of 8.2 per cent, as against its growth projection of 6.7 in 2017 and 7.4 in 2018.

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was implemented in India from July 1 this year. It brings the economy under a uniform tax regime.

The Indian government scrapped Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes on November 8 last year, claiming that the move would eradicate black money, fake currency and corruption.

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May 6,2024

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The Israeli regime is forcibly evacuating Palestinians from the eastern part of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip amid the prospect of its widely-discouraged ground invasion.

“The estimate is around 100,000 people,” an Israeli military spokesman told journalists on Monday when asked how many people were being evacuated.

International organizations, including the United Nations, have repeatedly warned the regime against invading the city, citing its hosting around 1.5 million Palestinian refugees.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said a ground assault on Rafah would “put the final nail in the coffin” for humanitarian aid operations in the Gaza Strip.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs also said, “Any ground operation would mean more suffering and death,” with an official saying “It could be a slaughter of civilians.”

Multiple aid agencies, including the Norwegian Refugee Council, have likewise warned against a Rafah offensive.

The NRC said such an invasion “would profoundly exacerbate the already catastrophic levels of need and the humanitarian emergency for millions of civilians with nowhere left to go.”

The official alleged Hamas had killed three Israeli forces on Sunday, attacking them from Rafah.

The evacuation order came a sat least 22 people lost their lives in the regime’s airstrikes killed in Rafah earlier on Monday.

Rafah’s evacuation “is part of our plans to dismantle Hamas,” the Israeli spokesman added, referring to the Palestinian resistance movement that has been defending Gaza in the face of the war.

The Palestinians have fled there from the ravages of a war that the regime began waging against Gaza on October 7, following a retaliatory operation by the coastal sliver’s resistance groups.

At least 34,683 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have been killed and 78,018 others injured so far during the brutal military onslaught.

On Friday, Hossam Badran, a member of Hamas’ Political Bureau, said Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on carrying out a ground invasion of Rafah was a key stumbling block in negotiations aimed at a truce agreement.

The Israeli premier has said the regime would go ahead with invading the city “with or without” a truce.

Hamas has, however, asserted that the regime has failed to defeat the resistance during the war.

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May 6,2024

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Bengaluru: The Congress and BJP will lock horns on the electoral battleground again in less than a fortnight in Karnataka, as the stage is set for the second phase of elections in the 14 remaining Lok Sabha seats on Tuesday.

It is going to be a straight fight between the ruling Congress and BJP in Parliamentary segments in the northern districts. The JD(S) is not contesting in these seats and is supporting its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner -- the BJP.

The state has a total of 28 Lok Sabha constituencies. The first phase of polling in 14 seats in most of the southern and coastal districts was held on April 26.

A total of 227 candidates -- 206 men and 21 women -- are in the fray for the second phase.

More than 2.59 crore voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in 28,269 polling stations where voting will take place between 7 am to 6 pm.

The segments where elections will be held on Tuesday are: Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Bellary, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada, Davangere and Shimoga.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had swept all these 14 seats, defeating Congress and JD(S), which were in alliance and ruling the state then.

Having scored a thumping victory in the Assembly elections last year, the Congress now appears determined to put up a strong show.

Karnataka is the most important state for the BJP in south India as it's only here that it has held power in the past.

Speaking to PTI, Karnataka Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Meena said adequate security arrangements have been made for Tuesday's polling.

"Around 1.45 lakh polling officials have been deployed across the 14 constituencies. In addition, 35,000 civil police personnel, 65 companies of Central Paramilitary forces and armed police of other states will be deployed for the polling day," he said.

Besides this, 4,000 micro-observers will also be on duty and 17,000 polling stations will be covered by webcasting, he added.

Davangere has the maximum number of 30 candidates, followed by 23 in Shimoga and Raichur has the least number - eight.

Former Chief Ministers Basavaraj Bommai (Haveri) and Jagadish Shettar (Balgaum), Union Ministers Pralhad Joshi (Dharwad) and Bhagwanth Khuba (Bidar) -- all from BJP; Congress' Geetha Shivrajkumar (Shimoga) -- wife of actor Shivrajkumar and daughter of former CM S Bangarappa and AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge's son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani (Gulbarga), are among the prominent names in the fray.

Also in the contest are MP and veteran BJP leader B S Yediyurappa's son B Y Raghavendra, suspended party leader and former Deputy CM K S Eshwarappa -- both from Shimoga, former Speaker Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri and ex-Minister B Sreeramulu of BJP from Uttara Kannada and Bellary respectively and retired IAS officer G Kumar Naik of Congress from Raichur.

Stakes are high for several Ministers in this phase with their children in fray.

Sons of Ministers Laxmi Hebbalkar and Eshwar Khandre - Mrinal Ravindra Hebbalkar and Sagar Khandre - are contesting from Belgaum and Bidar respectively, while daughters of Ministers Satish Jarkiholi and Shivanand Patil -Priyanka Jarkiholi and Samyukta Patil- are in contention in Chikkodi and Bagalkot respectively.

Prabha Mallikarjun, wife of Minister S S Mallikarjun and daughter-in-law of veteran Congress leader Shamanur Shivashankarappa, is in the fray from Davangere.

The Congress' performance in the elections, especially in the second phase which covers almost all Lingayat-dominated districts, is crucial, as the party did not win one of them in 2019, and to also check whether the grand old party has managed to retain the support of a section of Lingayats -- considered as the BJP's core vote-base -- which seemed to have somewhat shifted towards it in the 2023 Assembly polls.

The Lok Sabha election is being seen as a big test of sorts for Congress state unit chief D K Shivakumar, who has made no secret of his ambition to become chief minister, amid speculations of change in guard mid-way of the Assembly term. The stakes are also high for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, as victory in this election is seen as key to strengthening his hands, analysts say.

It is also seen as a kind of a "litmus test" for state BJP president B Y Vijayendra, who has the onerous task of helping the party retain its supremacy in the Lok Sabha polls, by regaining its traditional Lingayat vote-base.

Ensuring a BJP sweep is paramount for the son of veteran leader B S Yediyurappa, to consolidate his position and silence critics who have questioned his selection to the post, overlooking seniors and seasoned hands.

The ruling Congress is mostly banking on the implementation of its populist five guarantee schemes while the BJP seems to be leveraging the "Modi factor" to the hilt.

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May 7,2024

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Bengaluru: JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy has claimed that 25,000 pen drives with videos of women being sexually abused allegedly by his nephew, Lok Sabha election candidate Prajwal Revanna, were distributed before polls, and accused Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D K Shivakumar of a conspiracy.

The former chief minister also sought to discredit the Special Investigation Team (SIT) formed by the Congress government on April 28 to probe the charges against Prajwal of sexually abusing several women after videos allegedly involving him started making the rounds on social media.

"It is not a Special Investigation Team but 'Siddaramaiah Investigation Team' and 'Shivakumar Investigation Team'," the JD(S) second-in-command, who is the son of party supremo and former prime minister H D Deve Gowda, said.

MLA H D Revanna and his son and Hassan MP Prajwal have been booked for allegedly molesting their cook. In another case, Revanna has been booked and arrested for allegedly kidnapping a woman who was allegedly sexually assaulted by Prajwal. A case of rape has also been registered against Prajwal.

Addressing a press conference here, Kumaraswamy said the pen drives were circulated by police officers who were "threatened to do it".

“It (pen drive carrying videos) was released in Bengaluru Rural constituency (where the Congress candidate in the Lok Sabha elections is D K Suresh, who is the brother of Shivakumar). This was an April 21 development. On April 22, Poornachandra, our polling agent, gave a complaint to the District Deputy Commissioner, who is the Returning Officer,” the JD(S) leader said.

“Poornachandra received a message at 8 pm on April 21 asking people to 'follow a WhatsApp channel to see Prajwal Revanna’s sleaze video'. There was a message on this WhatsApp channel, 'Countdown for the release of Prajwal’s sleaze videos'," Kumaraswamy further said.

According to Kumaraswamy, one Naveen Gowda had sent the message about the "countdown".

In his complaint to the Deputy Commissioner and the Superintendent of Police of Hassan district, Poornachandra has named five people including Naveen Gowda, Karthik Gowda (Revanna’s driver), Chethan and Puttaraju alias Putty, he said.

It has been more than a fortnight since the complaint made on April 21 but no action has been taken against these five people, Kumaraswamy said and demanded that they should first be arrested for "mortgaging the modesty" of women in the videos.

Kumaraswamy alleged that 25,000 pen drives were distributed in the entire state, and cited a report in a regional daily to support his claim.

“My question here is why no action was taken. If someone posts something on social media, immediately houses are searched and the person is made to sit in the police station. Why no action was taken against these five people despite a complaint?” he asked.

"Chief Minister Siddaramaiah had confidently said that all the three JD(S) candidates in the Lok Sabha elections will be defeated," Kumaraswamy said, adding, "It raises doubts about the involvement of many people."

On April 25, Karnataka State Commission for Women Chairperson Nagalakshmi Chowdhary wrote to Siddaramaiah demanding an SIT probe into the tapes where Prajwal is allegedly seen sexually abusing several women. The same night, the CM gave his nod and ordered the formation of a SIT, Kumaraswamy said.

“In that letter, Nagalakshmi Chowdhary did not mention the name of Prajwal or Revanna but the chief minister called it ‘Prajwal Revanna’s explicit videos’ in his post on X when he announced the formation of SIT. This shows how the conspiracy was hatched,” the JD(S) leader claimed.

He also alleged that the first complaint "framing" his brother H D Revanna and nephew Prajwal was typed on a computer in Bengaluru and was sent to Holenarasipura, which is represented in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly by Revanna, on April 28.

“It’s not a Special Investigation Team but there are two teams within it – one is ‘Siddaramaiah Investigation Team’ and another one is ‘Shivakumar Investigation Team’,” he charged.

He said the ‘convenor’ of the 'pen drive story', Karthik Gowda should be traced first and brought before the people.

“Going through the conspiracies, one can doubt the intention behind the investigation because more than protecting the women victims, you are limiting the scope of the probe only to defame people,” Kumaraswamy further alleged.

He underlined that he was not trying to protect anyone. “I have said that in this case I will not protect anyone doing wrong. Stringent punishment should be given to the person involved in this crime as per the law of land."

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