Economy to Grow Only 0.3% in 2 Years as India Enters First Technical Recession

News Network
November 30, 2020

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New Delhi: The Indian economy is forecast to show an average growth of only 0.3 per cent in two years as India enters its first technical recession, GDP could post further decline in 3QFY21.

As per a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, “Real GDP declined 7.5 per cent YoY in 2QFY21 (or 3QCY20), worse than our expectation, but better than the market consensus”.

Fiscal spending, consumption plus investments, posted its first major contraction since FY15 and is the worst on record. On the contrary, decline in private spending narrowed to -9.2 per cent in 2QFY21 from -35.4 per cent YoY in 1Q. The government and private sectors are naturally highly interlinked with each other, the report said.

A comparison of India with other major nations suggests India is no longer the worst affected economy — as the Philippines’ real GDP saw double-digit decline in 3QCY20 and decline was also higher in the UK and Mexico.

Due to a weaker-than-expected 2QFY21, we revise down our 3QFY21 and 4QFY21 growth forecasts.

“We now pencil in a decline of 1.2 per cent YoY in 3QFY21 (v/s a negligible decline earlier) and growth of 2.3 per cent YoY in 4QFY21 (v/s +4.2 per cent projected earlier). Accordingly, India’s real GDP is forecast to decline 7.5 per cent YoY in FY21 (v/s the previous forecast of -6.5 per cent ), but grow 8.5 per cent in FY22 (against 7.8 per cent growth expected earlier). This implies average growth of only 0.3 per cent in the two years,” the report said.

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April 10,2024

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Mangaluru, Apr 10: Hundreds of thousands of Muslims in the coastal city of Mangaluru and other parts of coastal Karnataka today observed Eid-ul-Fitr, marking the end of 29-day-long blessed month of Ramadan. 

The occasion falls on the first day of the 10th lunar calendar month of Shawwal, the start of which varies based on the sighting of the new moon.

Braving the scorching sun, Muslim men and children - and in some parts women too - thronged Eidgahs and mosques to express gratitude to their Creator by offering Eid prayers after distributing Zakat and Fitr among the poor and needy.

While praying for the acceptance of their month-long fasting and charity among other deeds, the imams also prayed for the acceptance of sacrifices of people of Gaza wherein Israel regime’s bloody war claimed thousands of lives including children and women in past six months.

Twaqa Ahmed Musliyar, the Qadhi of Mangaluru, led the Eid prayers and delivered the sermon at the historic Eidgah mosque at Lighthouse Hill. “We have fasted for a month to comply with the command of the Almighty. Let us also lead a pious life in the remaining 11 months of the year,” he said.

He exchanged Eid greetings with the devotees and called upon them to remember the lesser privileged people and needy during the festivities. “We have a social responsibility towards the poor and needy. As long as we attend to their problems, God's blessings will continue to shower upon us,” he said.

Karnataka Legislative Assembly Speaker U T Khader and several people’s representatives offered prayers at Eidgah mosque. Volunteers from Zeeanth Bhaksh masjid helped the police in maintaining traffic and discipline.

Children dressed in festival attire added colour to the celebrations. People wished Eid Mubarak and hugged each other.

The Eid prayers were held in all prominent mosques across the city. Taqwa Masjid in Pumpwell, Masjidunnoor in Hampankatta, Ihasan Masjid near Unity Hospital, Bolar Islamic Centre in Bolar, Ibrahim Khaleel Masjid near State Bank, Jamia Masjid in Kudroli and Kachi Memon Masjid in Bunder were overcrowded with devotees. Several thousand devotees offered prayers at Central Juma Masjid in Ullal on the outskirts of the city.

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News Network
April 15,2024

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

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April 12,2024

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New Delhi, Apr 12: India on Friday asked its citizens not to travel to Iran or Israel amid escalating tensions between the two countries following a strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria 11 days ago.

Iran blamed Israel for the strike and there have been fears that Tehran may launch an attack on Israel soon.

In an advisory, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) also urged the Indians residing in Iran and Israel to exercise utmost precautions about their safety and restrict their movements to minimum.

“In view of the prevailing situation in the region, all Indians are advised not to travel to Iran or Israel till further notice,” it said.

“All those who are currently residing in Iran or Israel are requested to get in touch with Indian Embassies there and register themselves,” the MEA said.

“They are also requested to observe utmost precautions about their safety and restrict their movements to the minimum,” it added. 

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