High US tariffs may dent India’s economy, pull GDP to 5-year low

Agencies
August 1, 2025

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New Delhi: India’s economic growth could slow to around 6% in FY2025-26, the lowest pace in half a decade, if the 25% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Indian goods continue through the year, economists and brokerage firms warn.

Current estimates

•    Barclays projects a 30 basis point fall in GDP growth due to the tariffs.

•    Nomura and Elara Capital forecast a 20 basis point decline each.

•    One percentage point equals 100 basis points.

This would mark a slip from the 6.5% growth recorded in the financial year ended March 2025 — already India’s weakest performance since the pandemic-hit year of 2020 21.

Broader forecasts remain steady

Despite the tariff threat, major agencies remain optimistic:

•    RBI, IMF, and ADB continue to project growth at 6.2–6.5% for this year.

•    The IMF recently raised its forecast to 6.4% from 6.2% in April.

Why the impact may be limited

Barclays expects final tariffs to be lower than announced, citing ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US. SBI Securities estimates that even if half of India’s $85 billion exports to the US are affected, the hit to GDP would be around 0.5% — as some products could find new markets.

Emkay Global, however, warns of a $30 33 billion export loss, or up to 0.9% of GDP, if tariffs persist. BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, also cautions that the drag on global growth may be greater than expected due to higher than assumed tariff rates.

Fastest-growing major economy — still

Even with the slowdown, India is set to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies, driven primarily by strong domestic consumption.

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News Network
December 1,2025

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Udupi, Dec 1: A horrific case of alleged rape has unfolded in Udupi, where a worker from a Hindutva organisation, previously arrested and released on bail for harassing a young woman, is now accused of waylaying and sexually assaulting her.

The arrested individual has been identified as Pradeep Poojary (26), a member of the Hindu Jagarana Vedike's Nairkode unit in Perdur.

Poojary had allegedly been relentlessly harassing the young woman, pressuring her to marry him. When she bravely stood up to him and refused his demands, she filed a formal complaint at the Hiriyadka police station. He was subsequently arrested in that initial harassment case but was later granted bail.

According to police reports, driven by the same malicious grudge, Poojary allegedly intercepted the woman again on November 29. While she was walking through a deserted area, the accused is claimed to have threatened her by grabbing her neck. When she again refused to marry him, he allegedly proceeded to rape her.

The survivor immediately informed her family about the traumatic assault. Following this, her parents lodged a complaint at the Udupi women’s police station.

Police arrested Poojary again and produced him before the court. He has since been remanded to judicial custody.

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News Network
November 26,2025

Mangaluru, Nov 26: Mangaluru East police have registered a case following a sophisticated online fraud where a 57-year-old local resident was allegedly cheated out of ₹13.4 lakh after being targeted on Facebook.

The scam began in February when the complainant, while browsing Facebook reels, was contacted by a woman identifying herself as "Lillian Mary George" from London. After establishing a chat relationship, the woman claimed she would visit India in November and bring a significant sum of money.

The trap was sprung on November 15, when the victim received a call from a woman named "Sonali Gupta," who claimed Lillian had arrived at Mumbai International Airport but was detained by customs. The fraudsters convinced the man that Lillian was carrying £25,000 (about ₹26 lakh) in traveller’s cheques and 1 kg of gold (valued at around ₹30 lakh).

Under the pretense of clearing these items, the victim was asked to make numerous online transfers between November 15 and 18 for various bogus charges, including:

•    "Pounds exchange registration"
•    "Customs declaration issues"
•    "Discount charges"
•    "Money-laundering charges"

Believing the fictitious story, the complainant transferred the cumulative sum of ₹13.4 lakh to various bank accounts provided by the fraudsters. He realised he was cheated when the culprits later promised a refund within two days but stopped answering his calls. The Mangaluru East police are now investigating the case, which highlights the continuing threat of transnational cyber fraud using social engineering and promises of fictitious wealth.

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News Network
November 22,2025

Mangaluru: Police Commissioner Sudheer Kumar Reddy C H has warned of strict action against individuals spreading rumours and attempting to create insecurity within the Muslim community and fuel hatred between Hindus and Muslims through social media.

Referring to a recent social media post alleging that police personnel had entered a masjid premises to check whether beef was being cooked, the commissioner said miscreants were attempting to push their communal agenda. 

“A group of people, both from Mangaluru and abroad, are trying hard to spread rumours. For the past 10 days, they have been attempting to rake up old issues, highlight routine matters as controversies, or fabricate news altogether,” he said.

He reiterated that any such attempts to disturb communal harmony would invite legal action. “Cases will be registered and the accused will be brought to book,” he stated.

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