High US tariffs may dent India’s economy, pull GDP to 5-year low

Agencies

August 1, 2025

New Delhi: India’s economic growth could slow to around 6% in FY2025-26, the lowest pace in half a decade, if the 25% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Indian goods continue through the year, economists and brokerage firms warn.

Current estimates

• Barclays projects a 30 basis point fall in GDP growth due to the tariffs.

• Nomura and Elara Capital forecast a 20 basis point decline each.

• One percentage point equals 100 basis points.

This would mark a slip from the 6.5% growth recorded in the financial year ended March 2025 — already India’s weakest performance since the pandemic-hit year of 2020 21.

Broader forecasts remain steady

Despite the tariff threat, major agencies remain optimistic:

• RBI, IMF, and ADB continue to project growth at 6.2–6.5% for this year.

• The IMF recently raised its forecast to 6.4% from 6.2% in April.

Why the impact may be limited

Barclays expects final tariffs to be lower than announced, citing ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US. SBI Securities estimates that even if half of India’s $85 billion exports to the US are affected, the hit to GDP would be around 0.5% — as some products could find new markets.

Emkay Global, however, warns of a $30 33 billion export loss, or up to 0.9% of GDP, if tariffs persist. BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, also cautions that the drag on global growth may be greater than expected due to higher than assumed tariff rates.

Fastest-growing major economy — still

Even with the slowdown, India is set to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies, driven primarily by strong domestic consumption.

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From Representation to Rivalry: The Sorry State of Muslim Leadership in Karnataka Congress

coastaldigest.com news network

January 19,2026

Bengaluru: As the dust settles on the recent legislative session, the corridors of Vidhana Soudha are buzzing with more than just policy talk. A high-stakes game of political musical chairs has begun, exposing a deepening rift within the Congress party’s Muslim leadership as a major Cabinet reshuffle looms.

With the party hierarchy signaling a "50% refresh" to gear up for the 2028 Assembly elections, the race to fill three projected Muslim ministerial berths has transformed from a strategic discussion into an all-out turf war.

The "Star Son" Spark

The internal friction turned public this week following provocative remarks by Zaid Khan, actor and son of Wakf Minister Zameer Ahmed Khan. Zaid’s claim—that his father "helped" secure a ticket for Shivajinagar MLA Rizwan Arshad in 2023—has acted as a lightning rod for resentment.

Rizwan’s camp was quick to fire back, dismissing the comment as a desperate attempt by Zameer to manufacture seniority. "Rizwan’s political pedigree was forged in the NSUI and Youth Congress long before Zameer even stepped into the party," a supporter noted, highlighting Rizwan’s tenure as an AICC secretary and his two-term presidency of the State Youth Congress.

A Tale of Two Loyalists

While both Zameer Ahmed Khan and Rizwan Arshad are staunch allies of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and represent Bengaluru strongholds, their political DNA could not be more different:

• Zameer Ahmed Khan: A four-time MLA who crossed over from JD(S) in 2018. Known for his "overzealous" and often polarizing outreach during communal flashpoints—from the DJ Halli riots to the recent Wakf land notice controversy—his style has frequently left the Congress high command in a state of "discomfort."

• Rizwan Arshad: A homegrown organizational man. Seen as a "quiet performer," Arshad represents the sophisticated, moderate face of the party, preferred by those who find Zameer’s brand of politics too volatile.

The Outsiders Looking In

The bickering isn't limited to a duo. The "Beary" community, represented by leaders like N A Haris and Saleem Ahmed, is demanding its pound of flesh. Saleem Ahmed, the Chief Whip in the Legislative Council, has dropped the veil of diplomacy, openly declaring his ministerial aspirations.

"I was the only working president not included in the Cabinet last time," Saleem noted pointedly, signaling that the "loyalty quota" is no longer enough to keep the peace.

As Chief Minister Siddaramaiah prepares to finalize the list, he faces a delicate balancing act: rewarding the aggressive grassroots mobilization of Zameer’s camp without alienating the organizational stalwarts and minority sub-sects who feel increasingly sidelined by the "Chamarajpet-Shivajinagar" binary.

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