High US tariffs may dent India’s economy, pull GDP to 5-year low

Agencies
August 1, 2025

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New Delhi: India’s economic growth could slow to around 6% in FY2025-26, the lowest pace in half a decade, if the 25% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Indian goods continue through the year, economists and brokerage firms warn.

Current estimates

•    Barclays projects a 30 basis point fall in GDP growth due to the tariffs.

•    Nomura and Elara Capital forecast a 20 basis point decline each.

•    One percentage point equals 100 basis points.

This would mark a slip from the 6.5% growth recorded in the financial year ended March 2025 — already India’s weakest performance since the pandemic-hit year of 2020 21.

Broader forecasts remain steady

Despite the tariff threat, major agencies remain optimistic:

•    RBI, IMF, and ADB continue to project growth at 6.2–6.5% for this year.

•    The IMF recently raised its forecast to 6.4% from 6.2% in April.

Why the impact may be limited

Barclays expects final tariffs to be lower than announced, citing ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US. SBI Securities estimates that even if half of India’s $85 billion exports to the US are affected, the hit to GDP would be around 0.5% — as some products could find new markets.

Emkay Global, however, warns of a $30 33 billion export loss, or up to 0.9% of GDP, if tariffs persist. BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, also cautions that the drag on global growth may be greater than expected due to higher than assumed tariff rates.

Fastest-growing major economy — still

Even with the slowdown, India is set to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies, driven primarily by strong domestic consumption.

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News Network
December 2,2025

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Bengaluru: 'Nati koli saaru' (country chicken curry) considered one of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s favourites along with steaming hot idlis was on the breakfast menu at Deputy CM D K Shivakumar’s residence on Tuesday, according to official sources.

The spread also included 'nati koli' fry, vada and pongal, among other items, they said.

In an apparent show of unity, Siddaramaiah visited Shivakumar’s residence for breakfast, just days after the two leaders shared a meal amid a simmering power tussle in the state Congress.

Siddaramaiah drove to the Deputy CM’s residence in Sadashivanagar, where he was received by Shivakumar and his brother D K Suresh, who is a former Congress MP.

Suresh and Kunigal MLA H D Ranganath, a relative of Shivakumar, joined them for breakfast, which featured a mix of vegetarian and non-vegetarian dishes.

Speaking to reporters later, Siddaramaiah said Shivakumar had invited him during his visit to the CM’s residence for breakfast on Saturday.

Asked about the difference between the two meals, the chief minister said, "At his (Shivakumar’s) house it was non-veg, while at my house it was veg. He is a vegetarian, I am a non-vegetarian. I had not prepared non-veg. I told DK to get chicken from the village as you won’t get the original in Bengaluru."

Shivakumar said he had initially invited Siddaramaiah to his residence, but the CM had suggested visiting his place first and reciprocating later. "It was a vegetarian breakfast at the CM’s house on Saturday," he noted.

"Today, I invited him (the CM) to my house. He enjoyed the breakfast, which had his Mysuru taste," Shivakumar added. At this point, Siddaramaiah remarked that Shivakumar’s wife is also from Mysuru.

Saturday’s breakfast at Siddaramaiah’s official residence, held as part of efforts by the Congress high command to ease tensions in the leadership dispute between the two, reportedly included idlis and sambar, according to official sources.

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Agencies
November 22,2025

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New York/Washington: US President Donald Trump has again claimed to have solved the conflict between India and Pakistan, repeating his assertion during a meeting with New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani in the Oval Office.

Mamdani flew to Washington DC for his first meeting with Trump in the White House on Friday. Trump said he “enjoyed” the meeting, which he described as “great.”

During remarks in the Oval Office, with Mamdani standing next to him, Trump repeated his claim that he solved the May conflict between India and Pakistan.

"I did eight peace deals of countries, including India and Pakistan,” he said.

On Wednesday, Trump had said he threatened to put 350 per cent tariffs on India and Pakistan if they did not end their conflict, repeating his claim that he solved the fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbours and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had called him to say “we're not going to go to war.”

Since May 10, when Trump announced on social media that India and Pakistan had agreed to a “full and immediate” ceasefire after a “long night” of talks mediated by Washington, he has repeated his claim over 60 times that he “helped settle” the tensions between India and Pakistan.

India has consistently denied any third-party intervention. India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, targeting terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in retaliation for the April 22 Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians. India and Pakistan reached an understanding on May 10 to end the conflict after four days of intense cross-border drone and missile strikes.

Mamdani emerged victorious in the closely-watched battle for New York City Mayor, becoming the first South Asian and Muslim to be elected to sit at the helm of the largest city in the US.

He had been the front-runner in the NYC Mayoral election for months and defeated Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and political heavyweight former New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent candidate and was officially endorsed by Trump just hours before the elections.

Indian-descent Mamdani is the son of renowned filmmaker Mira Nair and Columbia University professor Mahmood Mamdani. He was born and raised in Kampala, Uganda and moved to New York City with his family when he was 7. Mamdani became a naturalised US citizen only recently, in 2018.

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News Network
December 4,2025

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Domestic carrier IndiGo has cancelled over 180 flights from three major airports — Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru — on Thursday, December 4, as the airline struggles to secure the required crew to operate its flights in the wake of new flight-duty and rest-period norms for pilots.

While the number of cancellations at Mumbai airport stands at 86 (41 arrivals and 45 departures) for the day, at Bengaluru, 73 flights have been cancelled, including 41 arrivals, according to a PTI report that quoted sources.

"IndiGo cancelled over 180 flights on Thursday at three airports-Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru," the source told the news agency.

Besides, it had cancelled as many as 33 flights at Delhi airport for Thursday, the source said, adding, "The number of cancellations is expected to be higher by the end of the day."

The Gurugram-based airline's On-Time Performance (OTP) nosedived to 19.7 per cent at six key airports — Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Hyderabad — on December 3, as it struggled to get the required crew to operate its services, down from almost half of December 2, when it was 35 per cent.

"IndiGo has been facing acute crew shortage since the implementation of the second phase of the FDTL (Flight Duty Time Limitations) norms, leading to cancellations and huge delays in its operations across the airports," a source had told PTI on Wednesday.

Chaos continued at several major airports for the third day on Thursday because of the cancellations.

A spokesperson for the Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) in Bengaluru said that 73 IndiGo flights had been cancelled on Thursday.

At least 150 flights were cancelled and dozens of others delayed on Wednesday, airport sources said, leaving thousands of travellers stranded, according to news agency Reuters.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has said it is investigating IndiGo flight disruptions and has asked the airline to submit the reasons for the current situation, as well as its plans to reduce flight cancellations and delays.

It may be mentioned here that the pilots' body, Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP), has alleged that IndiGo, despite getting a two-year preparatory window before the full implementation of new flight duty and rest period norms for cockpit crew, "inexplicably" adopted a "hiring freeze".

The FIP said it has urged the safety regulator, the DGCA, not to approve airlines' seasonal flight schedules unless they have adequate staff to operate their services "safely and reliably" in accordance with the New Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms.

In a letter to the DGCA late on Wednesday, the FIP urged the DGCA to consider re-evaluating and reallocating slots to other airlines, which have the capacity to operate them without disruption during the peak holiday and fog season if IndiGo continues to "fail in delivering on its commitments to passengers due to its own avoidable staffing shortages."

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