India likely to experience above-normal cumulative monsoon rains in 2024

News Network
April 15, 2024

New Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season with La Nina conditions likely to set in by August-September, the IMD has said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining while heavy rain events (more rain over a short period) are increasing, leading to frequent droughts and floods.

Based on data between 1951-2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference here.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low. These conditions are favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, he said.

Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September, Mohapatra said.

India received "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.

El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.

Three large-scale climatic phenomena are considered for forecasting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through the differential heating of the landmass.

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.

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News Network
May 4,2024

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Canadian Police said they have arrested three Indians they suspect were part of the alleged hit squad that had killed Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader involved with the Khalistan movement, which calls for an independent Sikh state.

Nijjar's killing had become the epicentre of a diplomatic row between India and Canada last year after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged the role of "Indian agents" in the murder. India had rejected the charge as "absurd" and "motivated".

The three arrested Indians - Karan Brar, 22, Kamalpreet Singh, 22, Karanpreet Singh, 28 - were living as non-permanent residents in Alberta for three to five years, said Superintendent Mandeep Mooker, who leads the Integrated Homicide Investigation Team. The police have also released their photos.

They have been charged with first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder, showed court documents.

Police said that none of the suspects were known to them earlier and they were investigating their possible ties to the Indian government.

The murder remains "very much under active investigation," Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) Assistant Commissioner David Teboul told a press conference on Friday.

"There are separate and distinct investigations ongoing into these matters, certainly not limited to the involvement of the people arrested today, and these efforts include investigating connections to the government of India," CTV News quoted him as saying.

Nijjar, a Canadian citizen who was wanted in India on various terror charges, was shot dead outside a gurdwara in Surrey on June 18, 2023. Trudeau's charge against India sparked a massive row later that year with both countries expelling diplomats of the other country.

A fresh row erupted earlier this week after separatist slogans on 'Khalistan' were raised at an event addressed by Trudeau, prompting New Delhi to summon their Deputy High Commissioner and lodge a strong protest.

On the sidelines of the event, Trudeau told reporters that Nijjar's killing had created a "problem" that he could not have ignored.

India rejected his comment and said it once again showed Canada provides political space given to separatism, extremism, and violence. "This not only impacts India-Canada relations but also encourages a climate of violence and criminality in Canada to the detriment of its own citizens," foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.

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News Network
May 5,2024

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London: London's Labour mayor Sadiq Khan on Saturday secured a record third term, as the party swept a host of mayoral races and local elections to trounce the ruling Conservatives just months before an expected general election.

Khan, 53, beat Tory challenger Susan Hall by 11 points to scupper largely forlorn Tory hopes that they could prise the UK capital away from Labour for the first time since 2016.

The first Muslim mayor of a Western capital when initially elected then, he had been widely expected to win as the opposition party surges nationally and the Tories struggle to revive their fortunes.

Hours later in the West Midlands, Conservative mayor Andy Street -- bidding for his own third term -- unexpectedly lost to Labour's Richard Parker, dealing a hammer blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

That narrow loss left the beleaguered leader with only one notable success in Thursday's votes across England, after Tory mayor Ben Houchen won in Tees Valley, northeast England -- albeit with a vastly reduced majority.

In a dismal set of results, Sunak's party finished a humiliating third in local council tallies after losing nearly 500 seats.

"People across the country have had enough of Conservative chaos and decline and voted for change with Labour," its leader Keir Starmer said shortly after confirmation of Parker's victory.

He called the result "phenomenal" and "beyond our expectations".

Writing earlier in Saturday's Daily Telegraph, Sunak had conceded "voters are frustrated" but tried to argue Labour was "not winning in places they admit they need for a majority".

"We Conservatives have everything to fight for," Sunak insisted.

'Spirit and values'

Labour, out of power since 2010 and trounced by Boris Johnson's Conservatives at the last general election in 2019, also emphatically snatched a parliamentary seat from the Tories.

Starmer has seized on winning the Blackpool South constituency and other successes to demand a general election.

Sunak must order a national vote be held by January 28 next year at the latest, and has said he is planning on a poll in the second half of 2024.

Labour has enjoyed double-digit poll leads for all of his 18 months in charge, as previous Tory scandals, a cost-of-living crisis and various other issues dent his party's standing.
On Thursday, it was defending nearly 1,000 council seats, many secured in 2021 when it led nationwide polls before the implosion of Johnson's premiership and his successor Liz Truss's disastrous 49-day tenure.

In the end, they lost close to half and finished third behind the smaller centrist opposition Liberal Democrats.

Meanwhile Labour swept crunch mayoral races across England, from Yorkshire, Manchester and Liverpool in the north to contests across the Midlands.

In London, Khan netted 44 percent of the vote and saw his margin of victory increase compared to the last contest in 2021.

"It's truly an honour to be re-elected for a third term," he told supporters, accusing his Tory opponent of "fearmongering".

"We ran a campaign that was in keeping with the spirit and values of this great city, a city that regards our diversity not as a weakness, but as an almighty strength -- and one that rejects right hard-wing populism," he added.

'Change course'

If replicated in a nationwide contest, the council tallies suggested Labour would win 34 percent of the vote, with the Tories trailing by nine points, according to the BBC.

Sky News' projection for a general election using the results predicted Labour will be the largest party but short of an overall majority.

Speculation has been rife in Westminster that restive Tory lawmakers could use dire local election results to try to replace Sunak.

Despite the returns being at the worst end of estimates, that prospect has not so far materialised.

Ex-interior minister and Sunak critic Suella Braverman warned in the Sunday Telegraph that Sunak's plan "is not working and he needs to change course", urging a more muscular conservatism.

But she cautioned against trying to replace him, warning "changing leader now won't work: the time to do so came and went".

Meanwhile, polling expert John Curtice assessed there were some concerning signs for Labour, which lost control of one local authority and some councillors elsewhere reportedly over its stance on the Israel-Hamas war.

"These were more elections in which the impetus to defeat the Conservatives was greater than the level of enthusiasm for Labour," Curtice noted in the i newspaper.

"Electorally, it is still far from clear that Sir Keir Starmer is the heir to (Tony) Blair."

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News Network
May 1,2024

Bengaluru: A red alert denoting severe heat wave has been issued for six districts of Karnataka by the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC), as temperatures are likely to cross 46 degrees Celsius.

Bagalkote, Belagavi, Dharwad, Gadag, Haveri and Koppal districts will see temperatures ranging from 40 to 46 degrees Celsius between May 1 and May 9, according to KSNDMC.

The monitoring centre also pointed out that when comparing the maximum temperature recorded in Karnataka in the past seven years – between 2017 and 2024 – April 30, 2024 recorded the highest, 45.6 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, in a statement released by the India Meteorological Department in Bengaluru, the trough/wind discontinuity from southeast Madhya Pradesh to South Interior Karnataka (SIK), across Vidarbha, Marathawada and North Interior Karnataka (NIK) extending up to 1.5km above mean sea level persists.

But as per IMD, the department issued a severe heat (red) alert only when the actual maximum temperature crosses 47 degrees Celsius.

The maximum temperatures are likely to continue and also be around 40 to 46 degrees Celsius over parts of NIK districts, such as Raichur, Kalaburgi, Yadgir, Bellary and Vijayapura districts till May 6, the natural disaster management centre said on social media platform X.

The remaining NIK districts, most of the SIK districts and Dakshina Kannada district are likely to experience maximum temperature between 40 and 44 degrees Celsius, it added.

Parts of Kodagu, Udupi, Hassan, Shivamogga, Chikkamagaluru and parts of Uttara Kannada districts are likely to experience between 33 and 40 degrees Celsius till May 6, according to the centre.

From May 7, maximum temperatures are likely to come down by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius across the state, according to KSNDMC.

Meanwhile, as per realised rainfall across the state data by KSNDMC, while isolated rains were observed in six districts -- Haveri, Dharwad, Gadag, Vijayapura, Shivamogga and Uttara Kannada -- dry/negligible rains were received in 25 districts, including Bengaluru rural and urban on April 30.

Maximum rainfall of 35mm was recorded at Bhogavi in Haveri district.

As per the cumulative date of rainfall from January 1 to April 30, only coastal Karnataka recorded an excess of 59% rainfall from usual, while the rest of Karnataka had deficit rainfall ranging from 13% to 80%, said a press release by KSNDMC, which compiles the data from telemetric rain gauge locations established by it across the state.

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