India might see 'serious livelihood crisis': Economist Jean Dreze

Agencies
May 11, 2021

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India might be heading towards a "serious livelihood crisis" as the situation seems to be worse this time for the working class amid the Covid crisis and local restrictions by states already add up to something close to a nationwide lockdown, according to noted economist Jean Dreze.

In an interview, he also said the Narendra Modi government's target to make India a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024-25 was never a "feasible target" and was just to pander to the "super-power ambitions" of the Indian elite.

About the impact of the second wave of Covid on the Indian economy, the eminent economist said the situation today is not very different from what it was around this time last year as far as working people are concerned.

"The economic consequences of local lockdowns may not be as destructive as those of a national lockdown. But in some respects, things are worse this time for the working class," he opined.

Further, the eminent economist said the fear of infection is more widespread and that will make it hard to revive economic activity.

"Despite mass vaccination, there is a serious possibility that intermittent crises will continue for a long time, perhaps years.

"Compared with last year, many people have depleted savings and larger debts. Those who borrowed their way through last year's crisis may not be able to do it again this time," he observed.

Dreze also pointed out that last year there was a relief package and today relief measures are not even being discussed.

"On top of all this, local lockdowns may give way to a national lockdown relatively soon. In fact, they already add up to something close to a country-wide lockdown.

"In short, we are heading towards a serious livelihood crisis," he said.

On how the government could have missed seeing the second Covid-19 wave coming, Dreze said the Indian government has been in denial all along.

"Remember, the government refused to admit about any 'community transmission' of Covid for a long time, even as recorded cases were counted in millions.

"When an early analysis of official data exposed the collapse of health services, the government retracted the data," he said.

He pointed out that misleading statistics have been routinely invoked to reassure the public that all is well. "Denying a crisis is the surest way to make it worse. We are now paying the price of this complacency".

India has been reporting more than three lakh new Covid cases daily in recent weeks and the death toll due to the infection is also rising.

Noting that India is also paying the price of a long history of neglect of the health sector, especially public health, Dreze said nothing is more important than health for the quality of life, yet public expenditure on health in India has hovered around a measly 1 per cent of GDP for decades.
When asked about the sort of relief measures that could be put in place to deal with possible livelihood crisis, he said as a starter, the central government could replay the 2020 relief package.

"But it is important to go beyond that, and to consolidate the social security system on a durable basis," the eminent economist said, adding that ad-hoc, short-term relief measures tend to breed confusion, corruption and waste.

Dreze, who was also part of the National Advisory Council (NAC) that had advised the previous UPA government, said much can be done within the framework of existing social security schemes and laws such as the public distribution system, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), the National Social Assistance Programme, and the Integrated Child Development Services.

He also noted it would be easy to provide supplementary food rations to all ration-card holders for much longer than the proposed two months, and also to expand the coverage of the public distribution system.

"Going beyond existing schemes, I think that a well-designed, inclusive cash-transfer programme would be useful," Dreze opined.

According to him, if intermittent crises are going to continue for years, which is very possible, it would really help to have a well-functioning system of cash relief that can be activated whenever the need arises.

"Turning India into a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024-25 was never a feasible target, and it is a useless target in any case. The function of this target is to pander to the super-power ambitions of the Indian elite," the Belgian-born Indian economist said. In 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi envisioned to make India a USD 5 trillion economy and global power house by 2024-25.

According to Dreze, even if we accept GDP as a valid development indicator, the standard approach is to look at GDP at its per capita terms.

"But then India looks like one of the poorer countries in the world, which it is. Looking at aggregate GDP, which is naturally quite large because of India's large population, creates an illusion of prosperity and power," he argued.

Dreze pointed out that actually it is not entirely an illusion because if the government's interest is in power on the world stage rather than in the living conditions of the people, then, yes, aggregate GDP would matter.

"For instance, it would enable you maintain a large army. But this has nothing to do with development," he observed. 

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News Network
November 30,2025

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Mangaluru, Nov 30: A 22-year-old college student succumbed to her injuries at a private hospital in Mangaluru today, days after she was hit by a goods tempo while crossing a road in Padubidri.

The deceased has been identified as Preksha, a resident of Nadsalu Billitota in Padubidri. The fatal incident occurred as Preksha, who was returning home after completing her examination, attempted to cross the service road towards Mangaluru. She was struck by a goods tempo approaching from the Udupi side, causing her to fall and sustain a severe head injury.

Prompt action from local residents ensured she received immediate first aid before being rushed to a hospital in Mangaluru for specialised treatment. Despite medical efforts, she passed away while undergoing care.

Preksha was a student at Karavali College, Vamanjoor on the outskirts of Mangaluru city. The tragedy is compounded by the fact that she belonged to a financially vulnerable family, having previously lost her father. She is survived by her mother and brother.

A case related to the accident has been registered at the Padubidri police station, and an investigation is underway to determine the exact circumstances that led to the collision. The incident highlights the growing concerns over road safety, particularly on busy service roads, and serves as a tragic reminder of the human cost of traffic accidents.

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News Network
November 24,2025

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Israeli forces have pushed over the Syrian frontier, erecting a checkpoint and stopping vehicles in the southwestern city of Quneitra, in yet another breach of the Arab country’s sovereignty.

The violation took place on Sunday, when the troops made their way across the border, setting up the outpost near the Ain al-Bayda junction in northern Quneitra, Syrian outlets reported.

According to the al-Ikhbariya paper, an Israeli detachment positioned itself at the junction, halting cars and conducting searches.

The Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported that three Israeli military vehicles then moved further into the northern countryside, deploying between the town of Jubata al-Khashab and the villages of Ofaniya and Ain al-Bayda. The agency added that a separate Israeli unit mounted a new incursion in the central region, approaching the villages of Umm Batina and al-Ajraf.

Residents said such activities have surged in recent months, pointing to Israeli advances onto farmland, leveling of extensive forested areas, arrests, and spread of mobile checkpoints.

The Israeli regime began markedly increasing its military aggression against Syria last year.

The escalation coincided with increasingly ferocious onslaughts throughout the country by the so-called Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Takfiri terrorist group, which the government of President Bashar al-Assad had confined to northwestern Syria. The HTS, however, managed to overthrow the government as the Israeli attacks would pummel the country’s civilian and defensive infrastructure.

Various reports have shown that, during the escalation, the regime conducted more than 1,000 airstrikes on the Syrian territory and over 400 ground raids into the south.

Following the collapse of the Assad government, Tel Aviv also widened its grip over the occupied Golan Heights by taking control of a demilitarized buffer zone, in defiance of a 1974 Disengagement Agreement. Earlier this month, senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, visited the buffer zone, prompting expressions of alarm on the part of the United Nations.

The United States, the regime’s biggest ally, has, meanwhile, been fraternizing the HTS head Abu Mohammed al-Jolani amid the widely reported prospect of rapprochement with Tel Aviv.

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News Network
November 22,2025

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The Israeli regime’s forces have killed two Palestinian children in the Gaza Strip every day since the ceasefire began in early October, UNICEF has warned.

The UN children’s agency said on Friday that Israeli forces continue to attack Palestinians in Gaza even though the agreement was meant to stop the killing.

“Since 11 October, while the ceasefire has been in effect, at least 67 children have been killed in conflict-related incidents in the Gaza Strip. Dozens more have been injured. That is an average of almost two children killed every day since the ceasefire took effect,” UNICEF spokesperson Ricardo Pires said in Geneva, reminding that each number in the statistics represents a child whose life had ended violently.

“These are not statistics,” he said. “Each child had a story, a family, and a future that was stolen from them.”

Data from Palestinian factions, human rights groups, and government bodies recorded since the US-brokered ceasefire deal went into effect on October 10 show that Israeli forces have carried out numerous attacks, each constituting a separate ceasefire violation.

UNICEF teams say they repeatedly continue to witness heart-wrenching scenes of fearful Palestinian children sleeping outdoors with amputated limbs, while others live as orphans in flooded, makeshift shelters.

“I saw this myself in August. There is no safe place for them. The world cannot normalize their suffering,” Pires said, lamenting that the UN could “do a lot more if the aid that is really needed was entering faster.”

The UNICEF spokesperson warned that with the advent of winter, the risks for hundreds of thousands of displaced children will increase.

He warned, “The stakes are incredibly high” for children as winter acts as a threat multiplier, where children have no heating, no insulation, and few blankets. He said respiratory infections rise.

“Too many children have already paid the highest price,” Pires said. “Too many are still paying it, even under a ceasefire. The world promised them it would stop and that we would protect them.”

“Now we must act like it,” the UNICEF spokesperson added.

Since the Israeli regime launched its genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza in October 2023, it has killed nearly 70,000 people in the territory, most of them women and children, and injured over 170,000 more, while reducing most of the structures in the enclave to rubble.

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