Indian economy to contract by 7% in FY21: SBI Research

Agencies
February 10, 2021

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New Delhi, Feb 10: Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent.

The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India (SBI) said of the 41 high frequency leading indicators, 51 per cent are showing acceleration which should help the economy turn around to the green from the third quarter with a 0.3 percentage point growth which is likely to surprise positively when the final numbers are out.

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In April-June, the Indian economy contracted by a record 23.9 per cent, but dramatically improved to -7.5 per cent in the second quarter. In 2019-20, the economy had grown 4 per cent and in the current fiscal year, it is on course to tank by 7 per cent.

The consensus is -7.5-8 per cent with the NSO pegging it at -7 per cent and RBI at -7.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP decline for the full year to be around -7 per cent compared to our earlier prediction of –7.4 per cent. Also, Q4 growth will also be in positive territory at around 2.5 per cent,” Ghosh said, adding promptly that the projections are conditional to the absence of any rise in infections.

“We retain our GDP forecast for FY22 at 11 per cent (RBI has pegged it at 10.5 per cent and the economy survey at 11.5 per cent and the budget did not offer a GDP estimate), but with the caveat that 11 per cent will be the floor below which it cannot fall,” he said.

Corporate results so far also reinstate the fact that third quarter would be much better than the previous one. The corporate GVA of 1,129 companies has expanded by 14.7 per cent in October-December compared to 8.6 per cent in second quarter (of 3,758 companies ex- telecom)

On the fiscal gaps, it said 9.5 per cent may be on the higher side. Excluding off-balance sheet liabilities, fiscal deficit will be 8.7 per cent gross tax collection estimate based on revised 2020-21 numbers and collections till December show tax collections will have a degrowth of 8.9 per cent in March quarter on a sequential basis. But in 2021-22 collection may top the budget estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, or 9.9 per cent of GDP.

Also Read | Wrong to term economic crisis act of God, govt policies responsible: CPI

Meanwhile, cash balances of the Centre has declined from the peak Rs 3.4 lakh crore to around Rs 2.3 lakh crore as on February 8.

Given that 85-90 per cent of such cash balances belonged to states that was invested with the Centre, it is possible that states before the closing of accounts of 2020-21 want to spend the cash rather than preserving. 

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News Network
November 27,2025

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Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Thursday announced that he will convene a high-level meeting in New Delhi with senior leaders — including Rahul Gandhi, Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar — to resolve the escalating leadership turmoil in Karnataka and “put an end to the confusion.”

Kharge said the discussions would focus on the way forward for the ruling party, as rumours of a possible leadership change continue to swirl. The speculation has intensified after the Congress government crossed the halfway mark of its five-year term on November 20, reviving talk of an alleged 2023 “power-sharing agreement” between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar.

“After reaching Delhi, I will call three or four important leaders and hold discussions. Once we talk, we will decide how to move ahead and end this confusion,” Kharge told reporters in Bengaluru, according to PTI.

When asked specifically about calling Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to Delhi, he responded: “Certainly, we should call them. We will discuss with them and settle the issue.”

He confirmed that Rahul Gandhi, the Chief Minister, the Deputy Chief Minister and other senior members would be part of the deliberations. “After discussing with everyone, a decision will be made,” he said.

Meanwhile, Siddaramaiah held a separate strategy meeting at his Bengaluru residence with ministers and leaders seen as his close confidants, including G. Parameshwara, Satish Jarkiholi, H.C. Mahadevappa, K. Venkatesh and K.N. Rajanna.
Signalling calm, the Chief Minister told reporters, “Will go to Delhi if the high command calls.”

Shivakumar echoed a similar stance, saying he too would head to the national capital if summoned by the party leadership.

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News Network
November 29,2025

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New Delhi: Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah and deputy CM DK Shivakumar on Saturday put up a dramatic display of unity at a closely watched joint press briefing, firmly dismissing weeks of speculation about a power-sharing tussle within the Congress. With the high command nudging both leaders to sit together and settle the dust, the meeting became a political spectacle, ending with the duo declaring that there was “no confusion, no differences.”

Calling the reports of a rift “manufactured confusion,” Siddaramaiah said the talks had gone smoothly, even joking about their breakfast. “Breakfast was very good. All three of us enjoyed it,” he said. “We want to end this confusion once and for all. For local elections and for 2028, our mission is clear — Congress must return to power. There is no difference between me and DKS, not now, not before.”

He blamed the media for fuelling rumours and reiterated absolute adherence to the party leadership. “From tomorrow, let there be no confusion. What the high command says, we will follow.”

Siddaramaiah also assured that the Assembly session starting December 8 would run smoothly and vowed that Congress would take on the BJP and JD(S) “together.”

Shivakumar echoed the chief minister word for word, stressing loyalty and discipline. “People have given us a massive mandate. It is our duty to deliver,” he said. “This government was formed under Siddaramaiah’s leadership. We both have complete trust in the high command. If they tell me to wait, I will wait.”

He added that the two leaders had discussed strategy for the 2028 Assembly elections. “Whatever the CM says, I agree. We are loyal soldiers of the party. The party may be facing challenges nationally, but we will keep it strong in Karnataka.”

Shivakumar also said Siddaramaiah would soon visit his home for lunch or dinner — another symbolic gesture meant to underline their unity.

Both leaders later posted on social media describing the breakfast meeting as “productive” and focused on “Karnataka’s priorities.”

The BJP, however, rejected the show of camaraderie as “pure bunkum,” accusing Congress of trying to paper over an internal power struggle. But Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar insisted their united front would continue — and that there was “no confusion” within the state leadership.

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News Network
December 3,2025

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Mangaluru, Dec 3: A group of Congress workers gathered at the Mangaluru International Airport on Wednesday to welcome AICC general secretary K C Venugopal, but the reception quickly turned into a display of support for Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar.

Venugopal arrived in the city to participate in the centenary commemoration of the historic dialogue between Mahatma Gandhi and Narayana Guru. The event, organised by the Sivagiri Mutt, Varkala, in association with the Mangalore University Sri Narayana Guru Study Chair, is being held on the university’s Konaje campus.

KPCC general secretary Mithun Rai and several party workers had assembled at the airport to receive Venugopal. However, the moment he stepped out, workers began raising slogans backing Shivakumar.

The university programme will be inaugurated by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.

This show of support comes just a day after Siddaramaiah remarked that Shivakumar would lead the government “when the high command decides.” The chief minister made the comment after a breakfast meeting at Shivakumar’s residence—another public display of camaraderie between the two leaders amid ongoing attempts by the party high command to downplay their leadership rivalry.

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