Indian economy not recovering, may contract 25% in current fiscal: Economist Arun Kumar

News Network
January 17, 2021

The Indian economy is not recovering as fast as the government claims and the country's economy may contract 25 per cent in the current financial year, noted economist Arun Kumar said on Sunday.

Kumar further said that due to a big decline in the GDP during the current financial year, the budget estimates have gone completely out of gear and, therefore, there is a need to correct the Budget.

"India's economic growth is not recovering as fast as the government is showing because the unorganised sector has not started recovering and some major components of the services sector have not recovered.

"My analysis shows that the rate of growth will be (-)25 per cent in the current financial year because during lockdown (during April-May), only essential production was taking place and even in agriculture, there was no growth," he told PTI in an interview.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the Indian economy to contract 7.5 per cent in the current financial year, while the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates a contraction of 7.7 per cent.

Also, according to the NSO, the Indian economy contracted by 23.9 per cent during the April-June 2020 quarter and recovered faster than expected in the July-September 2020 quarter as a pick-up in manufacturing helped GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 per cent.

Kumar, a former professor of economics at JNU, said the government's own document that provided April-June and July-September quarters GDP (gross domestic product) figures said there will be a revision in the data later on.

He predicted that India's fiscal deficit will be higher than it was last year and the state's fiscal deficit will also be much higher.

"Disinvestment revenue will also be short. Tax and non-tax revenues will be short," Kumar said.

He said India's economic recovery will depend on several factors including how quickly vaccination can be done, how quickly people can go back to their work.

"We are not going back to the 2019 level of output in 2021. Maybe in 2022, after the vaccination is done, we will recover back to the 2019 level of output in 2022," Kumar said.

He added that the growth rate in the coming years will be good because of low base effect, but the output will be less than 2019.

Asked whether the government should relax the fiscal deficit target in the upcoming Budget, Kumar said, "It has been argued since July that the government should allow the fiscal deficit to rise and spend more and give money to the unorganised sector and in rural areas."

On India recently imposing fresh restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) from countries that share land border with India, he said, "It is a knee-jerk reaction". If you look at the past three-four years, all the start-ups had big investments from China, Kumar added.

Stressing that like China, India should also invest more on research and development, Kumar said, "We are now in a bad situation where we have to do knee-jerk reactions like raising tariffs, withdrawing from the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), and having new FDI rules, to stop investment from China."

He pointed out that when investments in India are lacking, restricting investments from outside is going to put us in further trouble.
 

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
December 6,2025

indigoticket.jpg

With IndiGo flight disruptions impacting thousands of passengers, the airline on Saturday said that it will offer full waiver on all cancellations/reschedule requests for travel bookings between December 5, 2025 and December 15, 2025.

Earlier in the day, the civil aviation ministry had directed the airline to complete the ticket refund process for the cancelled flights by Sunday evening, as well as ensure baggage separated from the travellers are delivered in the next two days.

In a post on X, titled 'No questions asked', IndiGo wrote, "In response to recent events, all refunds for your cancellations will be processed automatically to your original mode of payment."

"We are deeply sorry for the hardships caused," it further added.

Several passengers, however, complained of not getting full refund as promised by the airline.

Netizens have shared screenchots of getting charged for airline cancellation fee and convenience fee.

"Please tell me why u have did this airline cancellation charges when u say full amount will be refunded (sic)," a user wrote sharing a screenshot of the refund page.

"Well, but you have still debited the convenience charges," wrote another.

Passengers have also raised concerns about the "cancel" option being disabled on the IndiGo app. "First enable the 'Cancel' button on your App & offer full refund on tickets cancelled by customers between the said dates," wrote a user.

A day after the country's largest airline, IndiGo, cancelled more than 1,000 flights and caused disruptions for the fifth day on Saturday, the ministry said that any delay or non-compliance in refund processing will invite immediate regulatory action.

The refund process for all cancelled or disrupted flights must be completed by 8 pm on Sunday, the ministry said in a statement.

"Airlines have also been instructed not to levy any rescheduling charges for passengers whose travel plans were affected by cancellations," it said.

On Saturday, more than 400 flights were cancelled at various airports.

IndiGo has also been instructed to set up dedicated passenger support and refund facilitation cells.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
November 27,2025

imrankhan.jpg

Authorities at Pakistan’s high-security Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi on Wednesday dismissed speculation about the condition of imprisoned former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, rejecting rumours that he had been moved out of the facility or was in danger. Officials said Khan was in “good health” and described the viral death claims as “baseless.”

“There is no truth to reports about his transfer from Adiala Jail,” the Rawalpindi prison administration said in a statement, according to Geo News. “He is fully healthy and receiving complete medical attention.”

Amid swirling rumours on social media, Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), urged the federal government to issue an official clarification and demanded that authorities allow his family to meet him immediately, Dawn reported.

The frenzy began after Khan’s three sisters called for an impartial probe into what they described as a “brutal” police assault on them and other PTI supporters outside Adiala Jail last week. Soon after, several social media handles circulated unverified claims alleging that Khan had been “killed” inside the prison.

The rumours intensified when a handle named “Afghanistan Times” claimed that “credible sources” had confirmed Khan’s “murder” and that his body had been moved out of the jail — allegations that have not been verified by any credible agency.

Imran Khan, PTI’s patron-in-chief, has been lodged in the Rawalpindi prison since August 2023 in multiple cases. For over a month, an undeclared restriction has prevented family members and senior PTI leaders from meeting him. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Sohail Afridi has reportedly been denied access despite making seven attempts.

In a letter to Punjab Police Chief Usman Anwar, Khan’s sisters — Noreen Niazi, Aleema Khan, and Dr. Uzma Khan — said they were “peacefully protesting” outside the jail when police allegedly launched an unprovoked assault after streetlights were switched off.

“At 71, I was seized by my hair, thrown to the ground and dragged across the road,” Noreen Niazi said, alleging that other women present were also slapped and manhandled.

Adiala Jail officials reiterated that speculation over Imran Khan’s health was unfounded and insisted that his well-being was being ensured, Geo News reported.

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.
News Network
December 4,2025

indigoflight.jpg

Domestic carrier IndiGo has cancelled over 180 flights from three major airports — Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru — on Thursday, December 4, as the airline struggles to secure the required crew to operate its flights in the wake of new flight-duty and rest-period norms for pilots.

While the number of cancellations at Mumbai airport stands at 86 (41 arrivals and 45 departures) for the day, at Bengaluru, 73 flights have been cancelled, including 41 arrivals, according to a PTI report that quoted sources.

"IndiGo cancelled over 180 flights on Thursday at three airports-Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru," the source told the news agency.

Besides, it had cancelled as many as 33 flights at Delhi airport for Thursday, the source said, adding, "The number of cancellations is expected to be higher by the end of the day."

The Gurugram-based airline's On-Time Performance (OTP) nosedived to 19.7 per cent at six key airports — Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Hyderabad — on December 3, as it struggled to get the required crew to operate its services, down from almost half of December 2, when it was 35 per cent.

"IndiGo has been facing acute crew shortage since the implementation of the second phase of the FDTL (Flight Duty Time Limitations) norms, leading to cancellations and huge delays in its operations across the airports," a source had told PTI on Wednesday.

Chaos continued at several major airports for the third day on Thursday because of the cancellations.

A spokesperson for the Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) in Bengaluru said that 73 IndiGo flights had been cancelled on Thursday.

At least 150 flights were cancelled and dozens of others delayed on Wednesday, airport sources said, leaving thousands of travellers stranded, according to news agency Reuters.

The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has said it is investigating IndiGo flight disruptions and has asked the airline to submit the reasons for the current situation, as well as its plans to reduce flight cancellations and delays.

It may be mentioned here that the pilots' body, Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP), has alleged that IndiGo, despite getting a two-year preparatory window before the full implementation of new flight duty and rest period norms for cockpit crew, "inexplicably" adopted a "hiring freeze".

The FIP said it has urged the safety regulator, the DGCA, not to approve airlines' seasonal flight schedules unless they have adequate staff to operate their services "safely and reliably" in accordance with the New Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) norms.

In a letter to the DGCA late on Wednesday, the FIP urged the DGCA to consider re-evaluating and reallocating slots to other airlines, which have the capacity to operate them without disruption during the peak holiday and fog season if IndiGo continues to "fail in delivering on its commitments to passengers due to its own avoidable staffing shortages."

Comments

Add new comment

  • Coastaldigest.com reserves the right to delete or block any comments.
  • Coastaldigset.com is not responsible for its readers’ comments.
  • Comments that are abusive, incendiary or irrelevant are strictly prohibited.
  • Please use a genuine email ID and provide your name to avoid reject.