India’s fertility rate drops below replacement level as population hits 1.46 billion

News Network
June 10, 2025

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New Delhi: India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, maintaining its status as the world's most populous nation, according to a new UN demographic report. However, the report highlights a significant demographic shift: India's total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level.

The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled The Real Fertility Crisis, published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), urges a shift from concerns about declining fertility rates to addressing unmet reproductive goals. 

It asserts that millions of people cannot achieve their desired fertility outcomes, which poses a greater challenge than underpopulation or overpopulation. The solution, the report suggests, lies in greater reproductive agency—ensuring individuals have the freedom to make informed choices about sex, contraception, and family planning.

Key Findings

•    India’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. This indicates that, on average, women are having fewer children than needed to maintain population levels over generations, without migration.

•    Despite this trend, India’s youth population remains significant, with:

o    24% aged 0-14
o    17% aged 10-19
o    26% aged 10-24

•    The working-age population (15-64 years) constitutes 68% of the total population, presenting a potential demographic dividend—provided it is met with adequate employment opportunities and policy support.

•    The elderly population (65 and older) currently stands at 7%, and is expected to rise as life expectancy improves.

•    As of 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.

India's Demographic Transition

According to UN estimates, India's current population is approximately 1.463 billion. While India is now the world's most populous country, projections indicate that the number will continue to grow to around 1.7 billion before gradually declining—a shift expected in about 40 years.

The report highlights how demographic change is influenced by the choices and constraints experienced by millions of couples. While some families actively decide to start or expand their households, others face limited autonomy in reproductive decisions.

In 1960, India's population was 436 million, and the average woman had nearly six children. At the time, fewer than 25% of women used contraception, and less than half attended primary school (World Bank Data, 2020). Over the following decades, educational attainment increased, healthcare access improved, and more women gained decision-making power over their reproductive lives. Today, the average fertility rate is approximately two children per woman.

However, the report emphasizes that despite progress, women in India—and across the globe—still face barriers in achieving full reproductive autonomy. The nation remains part of a group of middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic shifts, with its population doubling time now estimated at 79 years.

Expert Insights

"India has made remarkable strides in reducing fertility rates—from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to better education and expanded reproductive healthcare, leading to significant reductions in maternal mortality," said Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.

"This progress means millions more mothers are alive today, raising children and strengthening communities. Yet, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups.

"The real demographic dividend comes when individuals have the freedom and resources to make informed reproductive choices. India has a unique opportunity to demonstrate how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance in tandem," Wojnar added.

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News Network
January 23,2026

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his visit to Thiruvananthapuram on Friday, January 23, indicated that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming to expand its political footprint in Kerala ahead of the Assembly elections scheduled in the coming months.

Speaking at a BJP-organised public meeting, Modi drew parallels between the party’s early electoral gains in Gujarat and its recent victory in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation. The civic body win, which ended decades of Left control, was cited by the Prime Minister as a possible starting point for the party’s broader ambitions in the state.

Recalling BJP’s political trajectory in Gujarat, Modi said the party was largely insignificant before 1987 and received little media attention. He pointed out that the BJP’s first major breakthrough came with its victory in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation that year.

“Just as our journey in Gujarat began with one city, Kerala’s journey has also started with a single city,” Modi said, suggesting that the party’s municipal-level success could translate into wider electoral acceptance.

The Prime Minister alleged that successive governments led by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) had failed to adequately develop Thiruvananthapuram. He accused both fronts of corruption and neglect, claiming that basic infrastructure and facilities were denied to the capital city for decades.

According to Modi, the BJP’s control of the civic body represents a shift driven by public dissatisfaction with the existing political alternatives. He asserted that the BJP administration in Thiruvananthapuram had begun working towards development, though no specific details or timelines were outlined.

Addressing the gathering at Putharikandam Maidan, Modi said the BJP intended to project Thiruvananthapuram as a “model city,” reiterating his party’s commitment to governance-led change.

The Prime Minister’s visit to Kerala also included the inauguration of several development projects and the flagging off of new train services, as the BJP intensifies its political outreach in the poll-bound state.

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News Network
February 1,2026

US President Donald Trump on Saturday claimed that the government of India led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made a deal to buy Venezuelan oil, as opposed to purchasing it from Iran.

"We've already made that deal, the concept of the deal," he told reporters on Air Force One.

Trump had imposed 25% tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil, including India, in March 2025. He had also hit India with tariffs for buying Russian oil, saying it was "funding" President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine.

Trump has said that the US has taken control of the oil-rich Venezuela after capturing former President Nicolas Maduro in January.

A fleet of 18 ships loaded with crude oil bound for refineries in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in January, the most since December 2024, according to a report by the news agency Bloomberg.

Combined crude deliveries to the US will reach about 2,75,000 barrels a day, more than doubling volumes seen in December last year. Shipments to China, which averaged 4,00,000 barrels a day last year, fell to zero in January.

PM Modi, Venezuelan President Agree To Expand Ties

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez spoke on Friday and agreed to take the bilateral relations to "new heights" in the years ahead.

It was the first phone call between the two leaders since the capture of Maduro and his wife by the US on January 3.

"Spoke with Acting President of Venezuela, Ms. Delcy Rodriguez. We agreed to further deepen and expand our bilateral partnership in all areas, with a shared vision of taking India-Venezuela relations to new heights in the years ahead," PM Modi said in a post on X.

A statement from Prime Minister Modi's office said the two leaders agreed to further expand and deepen the India-Venezuela partnership in all areas, including trade and investment, energy, digital technology, health, agriculture, and people-to-people ties.

They exchanged views on various regional and global issues of mutual interest and underscored the importance of their close cooperation for the Global South, the statement said.

Rodriguez also said that they discussed partnerships in the fields of agriculture, science and technology, mining, and tourism, as well as the pharmaceutical and automotive industries.

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News Network
January 28,2026

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Mumbai: The sudden death of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar in a plane crash in his hometown of Baramati has plunged the state into political uncertainty, raising a pressing question for both the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and its rival faction, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar): what next?

For the two factions that emerged after the dramatic split of June–July 2023, the moment marks their gravest challenge yet. Many believe the answer now rests with party founder Sharad Pawar.

Sharad Pawar, who founded the NCP in 1999 after parting ways with the Congress over Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin, has already indicated his intention to step away from electoral politics once his Rajya Sabha term ends in April 2026.

Speaking at a public event in Baramati ahead of his 85th birthday on December 12, 2025, Pawar said he would not contest any further elections. “I have contested 14 elections. The younger generation needs to be given an opportunity,” he said, adding that he would decide later whether to seek another Rajya Sabha term.

Often described as the Bhishma Pitamah of Indian politics, Pawar also spoke of his gradual withdrawal from active leadership. “For the first 30 years, I handled everything. For the next 25–30 years, Ajit Dada handled responsibilities. Now, arrangements must be made for new leadership,” he said.

Ajit Pawar’s death has dramatically altered that transition, especially as he was working towards reunifying the two NCP factions.

“After the developments of June–July 2023 and the 2024 Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections, there were deep changes within the family and the party. In the last six months, serious efforts were made to reunite. Even workers from both sides wanted unity. This is a massive blow,” a Pawar family insider told DH over phone from Baramati.

Electoral outcomes over the past year reflected the split. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, NCP (SP) recorded the best strike rate in Maharashtra, winning eight of the 10 seats it contested. The NCP, by contrast, won just one seat out of four.

However, the trend reversed in the subsequent Vidhan Sabha elections, where the NCP emerged stronger, securing 41 of the 288 seats, while NCP (SP) managed only 10.

Within NCP (SP), Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule serves as Working President, followed by leaders such as Rohit Pawar, state president Shashikant Shinde and former state chief Jayant Patil.

In the NCP, Praful Patel is the Working President and Raigad MP Sunil Tatkare heads the state unit. Ajit Pawar’s wife, Sunetra Pawar, is a Rajya Sabha MP, while their sons Parth and Jay are not actively involved in day-to-day politics. Parth Pawar briefly entered electoral politics in 2019 but lost the Lok Sabha election from Maval. Jay Pawar’s political debut was under consideration.

With Ajit Pawar gone, speculation has intensified that a member of the family may be asked to assume a larger role. For now, Sunetra Pawar is expected to play a key coordinating role in party affairs, alongside Patel and Tatkare.

The NCP continues to have several heavyweight leaders, including Chhagan Bhujbal, Hasan Mushrif, Dattatreya Bharne, Manikrao Kokate and Dhananjay Munde.

Ajit Pawar had already begun steps towards reconciliation between the two factions. While they contested the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal elections separately, they later decided to fight the zilla parishad elections together under the ‘clock’ symbol—seen as the first formal step towards reunification.

Nagpur meet and party roadmap

Both NCP factions claim adherence to the ideology of ‘Shiv–Shahu–Phule–Ambedkar’. At the Rashtravadi Chintan Shivir held in Nagpur on September 19, 2025, the NCP reaffirmed its commitment to sarva dharma sambhav and discussed strengthening ties with the BJP “for the welfare and development of Maharashtra”.

In recent days, reports had suggested Ajit Pawar might return to the Maha Vikas Aghadi following the party’s poor performance in Pune municipal elections, but these claims were denied.

Big question for Maha Yuti

Ajit Pawar’s death also presents an immediate challenge for the Devendra Fadnavis-led Maha Yuti government. Pawar held crucial portfolios, including Finance, Planning and Excise. With the Budget Session approaching, appointing a new Finance Minister has become urgent.

Beyond numbers and portfolios, Maha Yuti has lost a swift decision-maker known for his administrative grip and political finesse—leaving a vacuum that will not be easy to fill.

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